Iran War Impact: LPG Crisis May Force Indian Restaurants to Drop Dosa, Uttapam From Menus

The Iran war impact is now reaching Indian kitchens, with restaurants across the country warning that popular dishes such as dosa, uttapam and other South Indian staples could soon disappear from menus due to a growing shortage of commercial LPG cylinders.

Restaurant owners in several major cities say they have only two to three days’ worth of cooking gas left, raising fears that operations may be halted if fresh supplies do not arrive soon. The crisis comes as global energy supply chains face disruption amid escalating tensions in West Asia.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption Hits LPG Imports

India is the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and nearly 90% of its LPG shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route.

However, the ongoing conflict in the region has slowed maritime traffic through the strategic waterway, causing delays in LPG shipments to India. The resulting supply crunch is already affecting sectors heavily dependent on commercial LPG, including restaurants, manufacturers and power plants.

To ensure essential services continue, the government has prioritised LPG supplies for households, leaving commercial users such as restaurants struggling to secure enough fuel for daily operations.

Food Delivery Platforms See Sharp Decline

The impact of the LPG shortage is also visible in India’s food delivery ecosystem. According to the Gig & Platform Service Workers Union, deliveries on major platforms like Zomato and Swiggy have reportedly fallen by 50–60% in recent days.

Nirmal Gorana, National Co-ordinator of the union, said several gig workers have reported declining earnings as restaurants reduce operations or temporarily stop accepting orders.

Families of delivery workers have even approached the union, expressing concerns about meeting basic household expenses due to the sudden drop in income.

Restaurants Struggle to Stay Open

Restaurant owners say the crisis is already affecting daily operations.

At Guerilla Diner in Bengaluru, reservations usually fill up within minutes each week. But now the restaurant is exploring ways to operate without relying heavily on gas.

Ownersaid the kitchen currently has only 2.5 LPG cylinders left.

Black Market LPG Prices Surge

Industry leaders say the shortage has already led to sharp price increases in the black market.

Ananth Narayan, head of the Bengaluru chapter of the National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI), warned that commercial LPG cylinder prices have nearly doubled in unofficial markets.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged citizens not to panic and announced the formation of a committee to review requests from the hospitality sector for additional LPG supply.

Restaurants Alter Menus to Save Gas

To cope with the crisis, many restaurants are already modifying their menus and cooking techniques to reduce gas consumption.

The NRAI has advised restaurants to:

 Pre-soak grains to reduce cooking time

 Remove dishes requiring slow cooking or deep frying

 Limit menu items that need long steaming processes

In Mumbai, the Chinese restaurant Gypsy has temporarily removed steamed dim sum from its menu because the dish requires continuous gas usage for nearly 10 minutes per serving.

Some Restaurants Return to Traditional Cooking

With gas becoming scarce, a few eateries have started returning to traditional wood-fired cooking methods.

At The Pizza Bakery, staff say weekly firewood usage has increased significantly as gas burners used to maintain oven heat have been switched off.

Uncertainty Looms Over Restaurant Industry

Restaurant owners warn that if the Iran war impact on energy supply chains continues, the hospitality sector could face serious disruptions.

Basic breakfast items such as omelettes and pancakes may also become difficult to prepare if gas supplies remain tight.

For now, the industry is hoping for quick government intervention and stabilisation of LPG imports. Until then, many restaurant kitchens remain on edge — unsure whether their next cylinder will arrive in time to keep the stoves burning.

The World Is Watching the Iran War. India Is Living Its Economic Consequences.

On February 27, 2026, Brent crude oil was trading at just under $70 a barrel. India's petrol prices were stable. LPG cylinders were available within 48 hours of booking. The rupee was holding steady. Inflation was manageable.

That was thirteen days ago.

Today, oil has surged from $70 to a peak of nearly $120 before settling around $90 — a trajectory that, if sustained, represents the most severe energy shock to hit the global economy since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of daily global oil supply flows — is functionally closed to most commercial shipping. India's LPG cylinder wait time is seven days. The rupee is near record lows. Indian benchmark stock indices have logged their worst week in over a year.

And every major global institution — from Chatham House to Morgan Stanley to the New Lines Institute to CNN Economics — is saying the same thing: of all the world's major economies, India stands the most exposed.

This is not a prediction. It is already happening. And the full weight of it has barely begun.

Why India Is More Exposed Than Any Other Major Economy

The vulnerability arithmetic is simple and devastating.

India imports more than 80% of its crude oil, nearly half of which comes from the Gulf. As a result, any surge in oil prices translates directly to higher import bills, currency pressures, and rising inflation. NBC News

India's vulnerability is arguably greater than that of China — which has months-long reserves of critical minerals and oil — compared to India's weeks-long reserves of crude oil and far fewer reserves of gas. Wionews

India imports nearly 85% of its crude, equivalent to roughly 4.2 million barrels per day. Even a few dollars' increase in prices can materially affect the country's energy economics. Rising prices will weigh on the balance of payments and could put further pressure on the rupee. Windward

Now multiply those structural vulnerabilities by the scale of what has actually happened to oil prices in the last thirteen days. Oil prices have surged from less than $70 a barrel on February 27 to a peak of nearly $120 early in the week before settling closer to $90. The Washington Post That is not a marginal shock. That is a 70% spike at peak — the kind of move that, if sustained at even half that level, would reshape India's entire economic outlook for 2026.

Morgan Stanley stated bluntly: every $10 per barrel sustained rise in oil prices hits Asia's GDP growth directly by 20-30 basis points. Windward Oil is currently $20 above its pre-war level even after partial retreat. That is 40-60 basis points of GDP growth wiped out — before accounting for the additional impacts on inflation, the rupee, the current account deficit, and the downstream price increases that flow through every sector of an oil-dependent economy.

The Four Channels Through Which This War Is Hitting India's Economy

This is not a single-variable shock. It is a four-channel simultaneous assault on India's economic fundamentals — and each channel reinforces the others.

Channel 1: Import Bill and Current Account

India's oil import bill — already one of the largest components of its current account deficit — is exploding in real time. At $70 oil, India's annual crude import bill runs to approximately $100-110 billion. At sustained $90-100 oil, that figure rises to $130-145 billion. The difference — $30-35 billion in additional annual outflow — must either be financed by foreign exchange reserves or absorbed through a weaker rupee.

India's rupee is hovering around record lows, and its benchmark indexes have logged their worst week in over a year. Wionews Both of those data points are the currency and equity markets pricing in exactly this arithmetic.

Channel 2: Domestic Inflation

A prolonged war that keeps energy prices high could drive up inflation and, with it, interest rates, piling pain on borrowers. Meanwhile, threats to cargo ships could snag supply chains, further raising prices for businesses and consumers. Bloomberg

In India, where fuel subsidies have been progressively reduced over the past decade, higher crude prices flow much more directly into retail petrol, diesel, and LPG prices than they once did. The government has already hiked LPG prices and is rationing LNG. Wionews Diesel price increases, when they come, will cascade through the entire supply chain — every truck, every tractor, every generator, every delivery van in India runs on diesel, and every price increase in diesel becomes a price increase in food, goods, and services.

Channel 3: The Strait of Hormuz Rerouting Cost

There are already signs of strain along the carefully orchestrated arteries of global trade — from rice exports stuck at ports in India to spikes in the price of fertilizer critical to food production. Bloomberg

For India specifically, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means that every tanker that once took the direct Gulf route must now either navigate a dangerous active conflict zone, go dark like the Shenlong tanker that docked in Mumbai this week, or reroute entirely around the Cape of Good Hope — adding 6,000 nautical miles, 10-15 extra sailing days, and massively elevated war-risk insurance premiums to every cargo.

All of these factors will cascade through global supply chains, raising consumer prices across the board in about a month. We are entering a period of higher inflation and reduced manufacturing. NPR

Channel 4: Aviation and Tourism Collapse

Iran's airspace was largely empty of civilian aircraft following the initial strikes. Multiple airspace closures across Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Syria and the UAE followed. International airlines including Air India, IndiGo, British Airways, Lufthansa and Virgin Atlantic suspended services to the Middle East. Al Jazeera

For India — which has the largest diaspora in the Gulf, runs significant trade through Middle Eastern transit hubs, and has been building its aviation sector aggressively — the airspace closures and airline suspensions represent a separate but significant economic wound.

What the World's Institutions Are Projecting

Every major economic institution that has published analysis since February 28 has reached similar conclusions — and their projections, considered together, paint a sobering picture.

Chatham House: A more severe scenario in which the conflict persists for several months could see oil prices rise to around $130 per barrel before declining in the second half of the year. At a global level, the hit to growth would be modest — but the impact would be felt unevenly across regions. Economies where energy subsidies remain extensive and government finances are already shaky are particularly vulnerable. Windward

New Lines Institute: A prolonged war with Iran could trigger a massive supply shock by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, potentially pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel and tipping the world toward stagflation. Countries like India, whose economies are deeply exposed to Gulf energy supplies, are likely to feel the impact acutely. The broader lesson for policymakers in India is clear: they cannot afford to remain passive observers of geopolitical conflicts in critical regions. NBC News

CNN Economics: The conflict raging in the Middle East will test the resilience of a global economy buffeted by tariffs and other trade disruptions over the past year. The widening conflict could be very impactful on the global economy across a range of metrics including inflation and economic growth. European benchmark natural gas futures have skyrocketed and could more than double from levels seen before the war if shipments through the strait are halted for longer than two months. Bloomberg

IMF: The Fund has not yet revised its 3.3% global growth forecast but stated it is closely monitoring developments and listed surges in energy prices, more trade disruptions, and volatility in financial markets as key risks to the outlook.

IEA: In an unprecedented move, the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves NPR — the emergency tool it reserves for the most severe supply disruptions. The fact that the IEA used this mechanism within two weeks of the conflict starting tells you everything you need to know about how seriously global institutions are treating this shock.

India's Diplomatic Tightrope: Energy Security vs. Strategic Alignment

There is a geopolitical dimension to India's economic vulnerability that makes its situation uniquely complex — and that the Hindustan Times report specifically flags.

India faces a difficult diplomatic balancing act as escalating tensions involving Iran threaten its oil supplies and test New Delhi's traditional neutral foreign policy. India is the only founding BRICS member that has not condemned the attack on Iran. India has maintained a stoic diplomatic position — calling for dialogue and de-escalation rather than outright condemnation, even as Beijing appears keen to leverage the moment to question India's diplomatic positioning within BRICS. Wionews

The strategic context compounds the economic vulnerability. Until 2018, Iran was among India's top three oil suppliers. That relationship was severed by US sanctions pressure — and India's Chabahar Port investment in Iran, which gives New Delhi access to Afghanistan and Central Asia without passing through Pakistan, is now in a deeply uncomfortable position geopolitically.

Two days after Iran attacked a vessel, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil — a gesture that simultaneously acknowledged India's vulnerability and subtly reminded New Delhi which side of this conflict the US expects its partners to favour. Wionews

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Israel a day before the nation attacked Iran has led to questions of whether this visit marked tacit approval for the US-Israel military action — adding a political dimension to what is already an enormous economic pressure. Wionews

India is trying to be neutral in a war where neutrality is becoming economically unsustainable and diplomatically uncomfortable simultaneously. That combination is precisely what makes its position so precarious.

The Downstream Sectors: Where Ordinary Indians Will Feel It First

Beyond the macroeconomic headlines, the Iran war's oil shock is already restructuring daily life for ordinary Indians in ways that will intensify over the coming weeks.

Food prices: Every percentage point increase in diesel prices increases food transportation costs — which flow directly into vegetable, grain, and packaged food prices at the retail level. India's food inflation was already elevated before February 28. It will rise further.

Fertiliser: There are already spikes in the price of fertiliser critical to food production. Bloomberg India's agriculture sector is heavily dependent on urea and other fertilisers whose production and transport costs are directly linked to energy prices. Higher fertiliser costs mean higher food production costs — with a 3-6 month lag before they show up in retail prices.

Manufacturing: Aluminium prices are already rising, and further disruption could increase input costs for automotive, aerospace, and construction manufacturing. Risks are particularly acute for industries that rely on petrochemicals shipped through the Strait to produce synthetic fabrics. NPR India's textile and garment sector — one of its largest employment generators — sources significant petrochemical inputs through Gulf routes.

Aviation: With Air India and IndiGo suspending Middle East services, the Gulf diaspora remittance corridor — India's largest single source of foreign currency inflows — is disrupted. Remittances from the Gulf totalled over $35 billion in 2025. Any sustained disruption to worker movement and connectivity will affect that figure directly.

What India Can Do — and What It Cannot

India's policy options in the face of this shock are real but limited.

On the supply side, the 30-day US waiver for Russian oil purchases gives Indian refiners temporary breathing room. Rerouting through the Cape of Good Hope, while expensive, is operationally feasible. Strategic petroleum reserves can be drawn down to buffer short-term supply gaps.

On the price side, the government faces an impossible choice: absorb the higher import cost through subsidies — blowing out the fiscal deficit — or pass it through to consumers — stoking inflation and political anger. The current approach of hiking LPG prices and rationing LNG suggests the government is choosing a middle path: targeted protection for household cooking gas while allowing commercial and industrial energy prices to reflect market realities. Wionews

On the diplomatic side, India's national interests definitely lie more with the US-Israel coalition vis-à-vis Iran in the current conflict, given its energy import dependency and the US's demonstrated willingness to provide waivers for Russian oil purchases as a goodwill gesture. Wionews But fully abandoning neutrality carries its own risks — with Iran still controlling one shore of the strait through which India's energy supply flows.

The broader lesson for India is clear: it cannot afford to remain a passive observer of geopolitical conflicts in critical regions. This crisis has exposed, with painful clarity, the strategic vulnerability of an economy that imports 85% of its crude from a region it has limited ability to influence and even less ability to stabilise. NBC News

The Bottom Line

India did not start this war. India did not choose the geography of the Strait of Hormuz. India did not decide that its economy would develop in a way that made it dependent on Gulf energy for 85% of its crude supply.

But India is living the consequences of all three of those facts simultaneously — and living them harder than any other major economy on earth.

Countries like India, whose economies are deeply exposed to Gulf energy supplies, are likely to feel the impact of this war acutely. The broader lesson for policymakers is clear: they cannot afford to remain passive observers of geopolitical conflicts in critical regions. NBC News

Oil at $90 and trending. The rupee at record lows. LPG rationed. Stock markets down. Rice exports stuck at ports. The fertiliser supply chain disrupted. Airline routes suspended. War-risk insurance making every tanker bound for India more expensive by the day.

This is not a forecast. This is March 12, 2026. This is happening now.

The question India must answer — not in the next budget cycle, not in the next five-year plan, but in the decisions being made this week and next week — is whether this crisis finally becomes the catalyst for the energy diversification, strategic reserve deepening, and diplomatic independence that every analyst has been recommending for twenty years.

Because the next time a war breaks out in the Gulf — and there will be a next time — India cannot afford to still be the most vulnerable major economy in the room.

It Loaded Oil in Saudi Arabia, Vanished off Every Tracking Screen, and Docked in Mumbai. Here Is the Full Story.

On the morning of March 12, 2026, a Liberia-flagged oil tanker named Shenlong quietly berthed at Jawahar Dweep, Mumbai's dedicated crude oil terminal, and began discharging its cargo — 1,35,335 metric tonnes of Saudi Arabian crude oil destined for refineries in Mahul, eastern Mumbai.

It was the first tanker headed to India to successfully navigate the Strait of Hormuz since the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on February 28. But the Shenlong's voyage was not a routine delivery. It was a calculated gamble through the most dangerous stretch of water on earth — and for a critical portion of that journey, the ship simply disappeared.

How the Voyage Unfolded: From Ras Tanura to Mumbai

The tanker loaded crude oil from Ras Tanura Port in Saudi Arabia on March 1 and departed two days later. Maritime tracking data from Lloyd's List Intelligence and TankerTrackers indicated that the vessel was last recorded inside the Strait of Hormuz on March 8. Windward

Then it vanished.

As the vessel approached the most sensitive section of the strait, its tracking signals disappeared temporarily. Experts believe the tanker switched off its AIS — Automatic Identification System — transponders to avoid detection while crossing the dangerous stretch. Shipping companies sometimes use this tactic during conflicts to reduce the risk of being targeted or tracked by hostile forces. After successfully passing through the high-risk area, the vessel reappeared on maritime tracking systems on March 9 as it continued its journey toward India. Wionews

The tanker later reached Mumbai at around 1 PM on March 12 and was berthed at Jawahar Dweep at approximately 6:06 PM. Deputy Conservator Praveen Singh confirmed that the vessel is carrying 1,35,335 metric tonnes of crude oil, which is currently being discharged and will be transported to refineries in Mahul in eastern Mumbai. Windward

What "Going Dark" Actually Means — and Why Ships Do It

To understand the significance of this voyage, you need to understand what AIS is, why it exists, and why switching it off is both technically simple and legally complicated.

The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea — signed by 167 countries — requires almost every commercial vessel to carry a radio transponder that broadcasts the ship's identity, position, speed and heading to port authorities, coast guards and commercial tracking networks. That international agreement requires ships to leave the transponders on and active. But there is no physical mechanism preventing a crew from switching it off or broadcasting a false position. When a vessel turns off its transponder and goes dark, it doesn't trigger an alarm at some global maritime headquarters. There is no such headquarters. The ship simply disappears from the map. Every map. The Washington Post

In peacetime, going dark is a red flag associated with sanctions evasion, smuggling, and illegal cargo. In a war zone, it is a survival strategy — if a hostile navy or drone operator cannot see you on a tracking screen, your chances of being targeted fall dramatically.

Evidence suggests the vessel loaded approximately one million barrels of crude oil at Saudi Arabia's Juaymah Terminal before switching off its AIS signal around March 4 and remaining dark for approximately five days before reappearing around 07:00 UTC on March 9. The manoeuvre suggests that a small number of operators are attempting to exploit extremely high freight premiums by conducting dark passages through the Strait, minimising visibility during the highest-risk segment of the voyage. Bloomberg

What Was Happening in the Strait While the Shenlong Was in It

The Hormuz that the Shenlong navigated between March 4 and March 8 was not a normal waterway. It was, in effect, an active combat zone.

Just after midnight on March 2, no tankers in the strait broadcast AIS signals at all, indicating near-zero traffic. Protection and indemnity insurance was removed for March 5, making the economic risk too high for most ship owners to use the strait. By March 4, the IRGC claimed complete control of the strait, and at least eight vessels had been damaged by that point. Military.com

On March 4 alone, only five vessel crossings were recorded across the entire strait. GPS jamming affected more than 1,650 ships in the Middle East Gulf on March 7 — a 55% increase from the previous week — erroneously placing vessels across land and sea in Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE. Wikipedia

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei warned publicly that all tankers and maritime navigation must be "very careful" as long as the situation remains insecure. Al Jazeera The US Energy Secretary briefly and incorrectly claimed the US Navy had escorted a tanker through — a claim that was rapidly corrected, underlining the fog of war surrounding every transit.

The Dark Fleet: A Global System That Predates This Crisis

The Shenlong's dark transit did not invent a new tactic. It used one that is now a well-established feature of global energy trade — the so-called "shadow" or "dark fleet."

According to maritime intelligence firm Windward, approximately 1,100 dark fleet vessels have been identified globally, representing roughly 17% to 18% of all tankers carrying liquid cargo. The dark fleet did not emerge because the maritime system is broken — it emerged because the system is built on voluntary participation. The Washington Post

Iran began using dark fleet tactics in 2018 after sanctions were reimposed. Russia dramatically expanded the system in 2022 after its invasion of Ukraine. Now, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to conventional maritime trade, the only vessels still moving with regularity are the ones operating outside the rules. Zee News

Windward detected a more than 200% increase in dark vessel activity during the first night of the Iran-US escalation alone — the immediate, system-wide response of the global shipping industry to the new threat environment. NPR

India's Larger Shipping Crisis: 28 Ships Still Stranded

The Shenlong's successful arrival is a relief — but it should not obscure the scale of what India still faces.

Several Indian vessels remain near the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Directorate General of Shipping, 28 Indian-flagged ships were operating in or near the region when the conflict began. At least seven vessels — including Desh Mahima, Desh Abhiman, Swarna Kamal, Vishva Prerna, Jag Viraat, Jag Lokesh, and LNGC Aseem — have since moved to safer waters in the Arabian Sea. Another ship, Jag Lakshya, has reportedly headed toward Angola. Windward

Shipping authorities say there are currently no formal restrictions preventing Indian ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but vessel operators are advised to carefully assess security risks and maintain situational awareness. Windward That careful language masks a brutal reality: in a strait where naval mines are now reportedly being planted and IRGC drones are active, "carefully assess" means "decide if your crew's lives and your cargo are worth the freight premium."

The Rerouting Problem: Why Cape of Good Hope Is Not a Simple Fix

With Hormuz effectively closed to most traffic, the global shipping industry is rerouting — but the alternatives are expensive, slow, and increasingly under strain.

Regional shipping activity is redistributing across alternative routes, with Cape of Good Hope transits surging sharply, reflecting a growing shift toward long-haul rerouting around the Middle East and Red Sea risk environment. Bloomberg

Oman's deep-water ports of Duqm, Salalah and Sohar in the Arabian Sea, which could allow tankers to bypass the strait, are no longer fully safe either — in March 2026 several drones struck Duqm and Salalah, with at least one fuel storage tank in Duqm damaged. The Joint War Committee of the London insurance market subsequently included waters around Oman in its list of high-risk maritime areas. Military.com

The Cape of Good Hope route adds approximately 6,000 nautical miles — and 10 to 15 extra days of sailing — to a typical Gulf-to-India oil shipment. In volume terms, it works. In cost terms, it is devastating: freight rates have already surged, war-risk insurance premiums have multiplied, and every extra day at sea is fuel, crew wages, and depreciation.

The Bottom Line

The Shenlong's voyage tells you everything you need to know about India's energy situation right now. A ship loaded Saudi oil, switched off every tracking system it carried, sailed blind through a war zone for five days, emerged safely, and docked in Mumbai. The crew took that risk — presumably for significantly elevated freight premium — so that India's refineries could keep running.

Roughly 30% of the world's seaborne crude oil transits the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, nearly 20% of global jet fuel and about 16% of gasoline and naphtha flows also pass through the strait. NBC News India, which imports more than half its crude through this corridor, cannot simply reroute its energy supply overnight.

The Shenlong made it. The next tanker's crew will have to make the same calculation. And the one after that. Until the war ends, or until India builds the strategic reserves and alternative supply chains that this crisis has made urgently, undeniably necessary — going dark in the Strait of Hormuz may be the best option India's oil supply chain has.

That is not a comfortable conclusion. It is the honest one.