Global Fuel Crisis Triggered by War, Says PM Modi

PM urges citizens to ignore rumours, trust official information

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday said the ongoing conflict in West Asia has triggered a global petrol and diesel crisis. Addressing the 132nd episode of his monthly radio programme ‘Mann Ki Baat’, he asserted that India is managing the situation effectively despite the turmoil.

The Prime Minister warned citizens against falling for unverified claims circulating on social media. “Do not believe rumours. Trust official information shared by the government,” he said, adding that some elements are trying to disturb the country’s stability.

Energy Crisis Due to War

Modi explained that the war-affected region is a critical source of global energy supplies. The prolonged conflict has disrupted production and supply chains, leading to price volatility worldwide. He credited India’s strong diplomatic ties and cooperation with other nations for helping the country navigate the challenge.

“Our progress over the past decade has given us the resilience to face such global headwinds,” the Prime Minister said.

Appeal Against Misinformation

The Prime Minister’s appeal came amid rising anxiety over fuel prices in several states. He urged the 1.4 billion citizens to stay alert and not amplify unverified messages. “Just like in past crises, the collective strength of India’s people will help us overcome this situation,” Modi said.

Government sources indicated that multiple fake advisories regarding fuel rationing have been circulating on messaging platforms. Officials confirmed that no such restrictions are under consideration.

March’s Global Turmoil

Modi noted that March 2026 has been an exceptionally difficult month for the world. After the long shadow of COVID-19, global recovery hopes have been dented by fresh conflicts. “New wars have emerged in different regions,” he said, without directly naming any country.

The Prime Minister’s remarks come as fighting between US-Israel allies and Iran continues for over a month. The conflict has already claimed hundreds of civilian lives and displaced thousands.

Assistance to Indians in Gulf

The Prime Minister expressed deep gratitude to Gulf countries for protecting Indian nationals working there. “More than one crore Indians live and work in the Gulf region. I am deeply grateful to these nations for providing every possible assistance,” Modi said.

External Affairs Ministry sources confirmed that no major evacuation has been required so far. Indian embassies remain in close touch with community leaders across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain.

Youth Power and Nation Building

During the broadcast, Modi also described India as the “world’s youngest country”. He highlighted the role of ‘Mera Yuva Bharat’ (MY Bharat) organisation in channelling youth energy for positive development. “When the nation’s youth are harnessed for nation-building, it provides immense support,” he said.

The Prime Minister praised Jammu and Kashmir’s Ranji Trophy victory, calling it a testament to the region’s sporting talent.

What Next

The government is expected to monitor global crude prices closely in the coming weeks. Officials said India continues to explore diversified energy sources and strategic reserves to cushion domestic consumers. The next episode of ‘Mann Ki Baat’ is scheduled for the last Sunday of April.

Iran’s Oil Exports Surge Amid West Asia Conflict

As the military conflict between Iran and US-Israeli forces escalates, Tehran appears to have turned a geopolitical crisis into an economic advantage. Despite ongoing hostilities, the country’s oil exports have not only sustained but seen a strategic surge, capitalising on global supply fears and a calculated avoidance of attacks on its primary export hub.

Kharg Terminal Remains Operational

According to officials and data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and S&P Global, Iran is currently exporting between 1.7 to 2 million barrels of crude oil daily. A staggering 90% of this volume continues to originate from the Kharg Terminal, the nation’s largest oil export facility. While US forces have targeted military infrastructure near Kharg Island, they have avoided direct strikes on the terminal itself. Sources indicate this restraint stems from fears of triggering a global oil crisis, a loophole Tehran has exploited to maintain steady supply lines to China via its network of ‘ghost fleet’ tankers.

War Tax and Gas Field Impact

While the Kharg Terminal remains largely unaffected, the conflict has taken a toll on other energy infrastructure. Attacks near the South Pars gas field have impacted exports, though supplies have not been completely halted. In a significant development, Iranian authorities are reportedly levying a “war tax” of approximately ₹16.5 crore per ship on foreign vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz, adding a new layer of complexity to regional maritime trade.

Gulf States See Production Collapse

In stark contrast to Iran’s stable output, the conflict has crippled production in key Gulf nations. With Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint for global energy—supply routes for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE have been severely compromised. Industry estimates show total production from these nations has plummeted by up to 70%.

Saudi Arabia’s output has reportedly fallen from 10 million barrels per day (bpd) to around 8 million bpd, with storage tanks filling up due to export bottlenecks. In Iraq, production has crashed from 4.3 million bpd to just 1.3 million bpd. International oil majors like BP and TotalEnergies have evacuated staff, and major fields like West Qurna have slowed operations as storage capacity is maxed out. Qatar has declared ‘force majeure’ at its Ras Laffan gas facility, with LNG exports down by 17%, threatening global gas supplies.

US Grants Temporary Sanctions Exemption

The rapid rise in global energy prices has prompted a significant policy shift in Washington. On March 20, the US Treasury announced a 30-day exemption on sanctions specifically for the purchase of Iranian oil already located on tankers at sea. Treasury Minister Scott Bessant stated that the move aims to release approximately 140 million barrels into the market, easing supply pressures.

What Next: Crude Prices and India’s Inflation

The immediate impact of the crisis is already visible in global markets. On Friday, Brent crude surged 3.26% to $112.19 per barrel, its highest level since July 2022. For India, a nation heavily reliant on energy imports, sustained prices above $100 pose a significant risk. Analysts warn that such levels will likely increase domestic inflation, pressure the rupee, and impact broader market stability. The coming weeks will be crucial as the world watches whether the Strait of Hormuz remains partially open or if further escalation leads to a complete blockade.

Analysts highlight Gulf countries restraint in the Middle East war as leaders defend key energy infrastructure without full retaliation, preventing the regional crisis from spiralling into a wider global shock.

Energy Infrastructure Under Attack  

Iran has struck multiple strategic facilities across the Gulf, including Mina al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah in Kuwait as well as Ras Laffan in Qatar. These sites form the backbone of crude oil and natural gas production and exports in the region.

Calculated Survival Strategy  

Gulf nations have responded with defensive measures, intercepting incoming drones and missiles. Yet they have stopped short of offensive action or joining the US-Israel alliance. Officials describe this as a well-calculated move to limit further damage to their economies already strained by sanctions and supply disruptions.

Sectarian Tensions Loom Large  

The region remains predominantly Muslim, with deep Shia-Sunni divides. Iran’s Shia influence contrasts with Sunni-majority Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia. Any full-scale retaliation risks transforming the current conflict into a broader Islamist civil war, a scenario Saudi Arabia has explicitly warned against by noting its patience is now limited.

Heavy Reliance on US Forces  

While Gulf countries possess advanced defensive systems like Patriot missiles supplied by the United States, their offensive capabilities depend heavily on American military bases in Kuwait, Qatar and other locations. Analysts note that full war participation could expose them if Washington chooses to step back, leaving them vulnerable against Iran’s established offensive network through the IRGC.

Economic and Inflation Risks  

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have already pushed up global oil and natural gas prices. This mirrors the energy shock from the Russia-Ukraine war and threatens fresh inflationary pressures worldwide. The United States, a major producer and consumer of crude, is particularly wary as domestic cost-of-living concerns persist despite earlier promises to control inflation.

Investment Hub at Risk  

Over the past decade, Gulf states have successfully diversified beyond energy, attracting billions in foreign direct investment. Projects in AI, data centres and complex engineering have tripled since 2018. A full-front war would shatter this image of a safe investment zone and force companies to redirect capital elsewhere, potentially benefiting alternative destinations.

Refugee Crisis Fears  

Escalation could trigger large-scale outward movement from Iran and surrounding areas, repeating the humanitarian crises seen earlier in Iraq, Syria and Libya. Gulf leaders fear the resulting trafficking, militia activity and strain on domestic stability would prove difficult to manage.

Limits of Calculated Restraint  

Diplomacy remains the preferred route so far. However, experts caution that restraint is not indefinite. Direct strikes on desalination plants, which supply water to millions, or attacks on ruling families could force a shift to offensive action. Complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz would also collapse the economic lifeline of these nations.

The ongoing crisis continues to draw global attention as a public interest story with far-reaching implications for energy security. India News Update platforms and international observers watch closely for any policy shifts that could affect National and International News flows. Government Updates from the region stress the need for de-escalation at the negotiating table.

As developments unfold minute by minute, Gulf countries restraint in the Middle East war reflects a clear priority: protecting livelihoods, economic diversification and regional stability over immediate retaliation. Whether this approach holds or gives way to stronger action depends on how the conflict evolves in the coming days.