The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to leave the benchmark repo rate unchanged at its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting this week, as inflation remains within the central bank's prescribed tolerance range despite rising global oil prices triggered by the Iran conflict.

According to a Reuters survey, 68 of 72 economists expect the MPC to maintain the current policy rate. While the RBI is unlikely to tighten monetary policy immediately, analysts believe it may adopt a more hawkish tone by highlighting emerging inflation risks and reiterating that future decisions will remain data-dependent.

Inflation Still Within Target Band

India's retail inflation rose to 4.38 per cent in June, crossing the RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent for the first time in 17 months. However, it remains well within the central bank's statutory tolerance band of 2 to 6 per cent, allowing policymakers room to pause.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, has also remained close to 4 per cent, suggesting that underlying price pressures are still manageable.

Economists say the current inflation trajectory does not yet warrant an immediate increase in interest rates.

Oil Prices Pose Fresh Challenge

The recent surge in crude oil prices following geopolitical tensions in West Asia has added uncertainty to the inflation outlook.

Although higher fuel costs typically feed into transportation, manufacturing and consumer prices, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra recently indicated that the pass-through from fuel prices to broader inflation has so far remained limited.

However, inflation expectations among households have started to rise, according to the RBI's latest survey, raising concerns that sustained high energy prices could eventually push overall inflation higher.

Wholesale inflation has also accelerated, reaching 9.87 per cent in June, adding another element of caution for policymakers.

RBI May Adopt Hawkish Tone

While the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, market participants believe the MPC could signal greater vigilance over inflation risks.

Analysts expect the policy statement to acknowledge global uncertainties, elevated commodity prices and currency pressures while emphasising that future action will depend on incoming economic data.

Such a stance would allow the RBI to balance inflation management with support for economic growth.

Different Approach from Global Central Banks

The RBI's expected pause contrasts with the actions of several major central banks that have tightened monetary policy in response to rising energy costs.

Countries including Europe, Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and South Africa have raised interest rates in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have opted to keep policy rates unchanged as they continue to assess the economic impact of global geopolitical tensions.

Focus on Stability

Apart from inflation, the RBI is also monitoring the rupee and capital flows.

Recent policy measures aimed at supporting the Indian currency have helped attract foreign investment, reducing immediate pressure on the exchange rate despite volatile global markets.

For now, economists expect the central bank to prioritise financial stability while closely watching inflation trends before considering any future policy tightening.

Indian benchmark equity indices traded in a narrow range on Tuesday as investors remained cautious amid mixed global market signals and sector-specific selling. The BSE Sensex hovered around 77,700, while the NSE Nifty 50 traded near 24,250, reflecting a lack of strong directional momentum after the previous session's decline.

Market participants closely tracked global developments, easing crude oil prices, institutional investment flows, and corporate earnings, all of which influenced trading sentiment during the session.

Banking and FMCG Stocks Under Pressure

The broader market witnessed selective buying, but heavy selling pressure in banking and FMCG stocks limited overall gains.

Sector-wise, the Nifty Chemicals Index emerged as the top performer, rising nearly 0.86%, while several other indices traded in the red.

Pharmaceuticals, PSU banks, consumer durables, real estate, and REIT-linked stocks also witnessed weakness, reflecting cautious investor positioning across defensive and rate-sensitive sectors.

Analysts said investors remained selective as they awaited fresh corporate earnings and additional domestic and global economic triggers.

Crude Oil Slips Below $90 Per Barrel

Global crude oil prices eased below the $90 per barrel mark, offering some relief to emerging markets, including India.

Oil prices had recently climbed amid renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, raising concerns over supply disruptions. The latest decline helped improve sentiment for sectors dependent on imported crude, although investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments closely.

Lower crude prices are generally viewed positively for India's inflation outlook, fiscal balance, and corporate profitability.

Asian Markets Trade Mixed

Asian equity markets presented a mixed picture during Tuesday's trading session.

South Korea's KOSPI gained over 3%, while Japan's Nikkei advanced nearly 1.7%, supported by technology and export-oriented stocks.

In contrast, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index traded marginally lower, reflecting continued caution among regional investors amid global economic uncertainties.

The mixed performance across Asia contributed to the subdued opening in Indian equities.

US Markets End Lower

Wall Street closed lower in the previous trading session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by over 300 points, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 also ended in negative territory as investors assessed corporate earnings, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks.

Weakness in US markets added to the cautious mood among global investors.

Domestic Investors Continue to Support Markets

Despite foreign investor selling, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued to provide stability to Indian equities.

Over the past seven trading sessions:

• DIIs purchased shares worth ₹6,021 crore
• FIIs/FPI sold equities worth ₹6,439 crore

During the past month, domestic institutions have invested more than ₹43,000 crore, helping cushion the impact of continued foreign fund outflows.

Market experts believe sustained domestic buying has remained one of the key factors supporting Indian markets despite global volatility.

Rupee Weakens Against Dollar

The Indian rupee weakened by 6 paise against the US dollar to trade at 96.42, reflecting continued demand for the greenback and cautious foreign investor sentiment.

Currency movement will remain an important factor for sectors dependent on imports and exports in the coming sessions.

Previous Session Ended in Losses

Indian markets had ended Monday's session on a weak note.

The Sensex closed 443 points lower at 77,709, while the Nifty declined 96 points to settle at 24,239, as profit booking across heavyweight sectors dragged benchmark indices lower.

With quarterly earnings season gaining momentum, investors are expected to remain focused on company results, global market trends, crude oil prices, and foreign investment flows for further market direction.

 The Central Government has revised export duties on key petroleum products, increasing the levy on diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) while reducing the duty on petrol exports. The revised rates came into effect on July 16, as part of the government's periodic review aimed at ensuring adequate fuel availability in the domestic market amid continuing volatility in global crude oil markets.

Under the latest revision, the export duty on diesel has been increased from ₹8.50 per litre to ₹15.50 per litre, marking a rise of ₹7 per litre. Similarly, the duty on aviation turbine fuel (ATF) has been raised from ₹7.50 per litre to ₹14.50 per litre.

In contrast, exporters of petrol have received partial relief, with the export duty reduced from ₹4 per litre to ₹2.50 per litre.

The changes apply exclusively to fuel exports and do not affect domestic retail fuel prices.

Move Aims to Protect Domestic Supplies

According to the government, the revised export duties have been introduced to prevent shortages of petroleum products within the country during a period of uncertainty in international crude oil markets.

Officials said higher export duties discourage refiners from diverting larger volumes of diesel and ATF to overseas markets solely for higher profits, thereby helping maintain sufficient supplies for domestic consumption.

The government reviews these duties every fortnight based on prevailing international market conditions.

Review Conducted Every 15 Days

Officials from the Finance Ministry said export duty rates are revised every 15 days after assessing the average international prices of crude oil, petrol, diesel and aviation fuel.

The previous review came into effect on July 1, and the latest revision will remain applicable for the fortnight beginning July 16 unless modified during the next scheduled assessment.

This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the government to respond quickly to changing global energy market conditions.

Export Levy Introduced Earlier This Year

The Finance Ministry noted that the export levy was originally introduced on March 27 through the Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) and the Road and Infrastructure Cess (RIC) framework.

The objective was to ensure that domestic fuel requirements remain adequately met, particularly during periods when global prices make exports significantly more profitable for refiners.

The policy gained importance amid geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in West Asia, which have contributed to fluctuations in international crude oil prices.

By imposing export duties, the government seeks to balance export opportunities for refiners with the country's energy security needs.

No Direct Impact on Retail Fuel Prices

The government has clarified that the revised duties apply only to petroleum products exported from India and do not affect fuel sold in the domestic market.

Since there has been no change in import duties or domestic taxation on petrol and diesel, retail fuel prices at petrol pumps are expected to remain unaffected by the latest revision.

Consumers are therefore unlikely to experience any immediate increase in fuel prices as a result of these export duty changes.

Balancing Energy Security and Trade

Industry observers say the government has increasingly relied on export duty adjustments as a policy tool to manage domestic fuel availability while allowing refiners to remain competitive in global markets.

Higher duties on diesel and aviation fuel may reduce export volumes if international margins narrow, while the lower levy on petrol could provide refiners with greater flexibility in overseas sales where domestic demand remains comparatively lower.

The fortnightly review mechanism is expected to continue enabling policymakers to respond swiftly to changes in global crude prices and evolving geopolitical developments affecting energy markets.

Indian benchmark equity indices opened in the red on Tuesday, July 14, as weak global cues and rising crude oil prices weighed on investor sentiment. The BSE Sensex was trading around 300 points lower at 77,300, while the NSE Nifty 50 declined by more than 100 points to trade near 24,100 during early trade.

Selling pressure was most visible in auto and banking stocks, which emerged as the biggest laggards in the opening session. Market participants remained cautious amid concerns over higher energy prices and mixed global market trends.

Crude Oil Climbs to Around $85

Global crude oil prices rose nearly 2%, with Brent crude moving close to $85 per barrel. The increase followed comments by US President Donald Trump, who said the agreement with Iran had effectively ended, raising fresh concerns over oil supply and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Higher crude prices are generally viewed as negative for India, as they can increase import costs, widen the trade deficit and add to inflationary pressures.

Two IPOs Open for Subscription

The primary market remained active as SBI Funds Management and Alpine Texworld opened their initial public offerings (IPOs) for subscription today.

SBI Funds Management aims to raise approximately ₹9,813 crore, making it one of the largest public issues of the year. Meanwhile, Alpine Texworld plans to mobilise ₹126.25 crore through a fresh equity issue.

Asian Markets Trade Lower

Weakness was also seen across major Asian equity markets.

• KOSPI (South Korea): Down 4.90%

• Nikkei 225 (Japan): Down 0.84%

• Hang Seng (Hong Kong): Down 0.86%

The broad-based decline reflected cautious investor sentiment across the region.

US Markets Ended Lower

Wall Street closed in negative territory in the previous session.

• Dow Jones: Fell 138 points (-0.26%)

• Nasdaq Composite: Declined 408 points (-1.55%)

• S&P 500: Slipped 60 points (-0.79%)

Technology stocks remained under pressure, contributing to the weakness in US indices.

Institutional Investors

Recent market data shows domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have continued to provide support to equities.

Over the past seven trading sessions:

• DIIs: Net buying of ₹7,039 crore

• FIIs/FPIs: Net buying of ₹971 crore

Despite intermittent foreign inflows, investors are closely monitoring global developments, crude oil prices and corporate earnings for further market direction.

Previous Session

On July 13, Indian markets ended almost unchanged. The Sensex gained 47 points to close at 77,616, while the Nifty edged up 4 points to settle at 24,211, indicating a largely range-bound trading session before today's decline.

Indian equity benchmarks opened the week on a weak note, with the BSE Sensex declining more than 300 points and the NSE Nifty slipping over 50 points during early trade on Monday, tracking weakness across Asian markets and renewed concerns over global geopolitical developments.

The Sensex was trading near the 77,200 level, while the Nifty hovered around 24,150, as investors remained cautious amid rising crude oil prices and broad-based selling across key sectors.

FMCG, Metal and Realty Stocks Under Pressure

Market sentiment remained subdued with selling pressure visible across several sectors. FMCG, metal and realty stocks led the losses during the morning session, weighing heavily on the benchmark indices.

Analysts said investors adopted a risk-off approach amid uncertainty in global markets and concerns over inflationary pressures following the sharp rise in crude oil prices.

Crude Oil Climbs to Nearly $79 Per Barrel

Global crude oil prices rose nearly 4%, with Brent crude approaching $79 per barrel, after geopolitical tensions resurfaced in the Middle East.

The latest spike followed remarks by US President Donald Trump, who stated that the earlier agreement with Iran had effectively ended. The renewed uncertainty over the region has raised concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies, pushing oil prices higher.

Rising crude prices are closely watched by Indian markets as the country imports a significant portion of its oil requirements. Higher energy costs can increase inflationary pressures and impact corporate profitability.

Asian Markets Trade Lower

Weak sentiment was also reflected across major Asian equity markets.

South Korea's Kospi witnessed the sharpest decline, falling 4.12%, while Japan's Nikkei dropped 1.12%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also traded lower during the session.

The weakness across Asian markets contributed to cautious investor sentiment in domestic equities.

US Markets Ended Previous Session Higher

Despite Monday's weakness in Asia, Wall Street had ended Friday's session on a positive note.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 150 points (0.29%), while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 75 points (0.29%). The S&P 500 also closed 0.42% higher, reflecting optimism in US equities ahead of key economic data releases.

Market participants, however, remain focused on evolving geopolitical developments and central bank policy signals that could influence global capital flows.

Foreign Investors Continue Buying

Domestic market sentiment has received some support from sustained institutional buying.

Data showed that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)/Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) recorded net purchases worth ₹4,427 crore over the past seven trading sessions. During the same period, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought shares worth ₹4,484 crore.

Over the last 30 days, DIIs have remained strong buyers with net purchases exceeding ₹39,000 crore, helping cushion volatility in the broader market.

Friday's Rally Gives Way to Fresh Selling

Monday's decline follows a strong rally in the previous trading session.

On July 10, the Sensex had surged 828 points, or 1.08%, to close at 77,569, while the Nifty gained 244 points, or 1.02%, ending at 24,206.

The reversal highlights the continuing volatility in equity markets as investors assess corporate earnings, global economic conditions and geopolitical developments.

Markets to Watch Key Triggers

Market experts expect volatility to persist in the coming sessions, with investors closely monitoring first-quarter corporate earnings, crude oil prices, foreign fund flows and developments in the Middle East.

The quarterly results of major companies, including banking and energy giants, are expected to provide further direction to domestic markets, while geopolitical tensions and commodity price movements will continue to influence investor sentiment.

The Indian stock market is heading into a crucial trading week beginning July 13, with investors expected to closely track a mix of corporate earnings, global developments, institutional fund flows, crude oil prices, and technical market indicators. The performance of heavyweight companies, particularly Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank, will be among the primary factors influencing market sentiment.

More than 140 listed companies are scheduled to announce their June quarter (Q1 FY27) financial results during the week. Besides Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank, investors will monitor earnings from ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Wipro, HCL Technologies and several other blue-chip companies. Market experts believe that management commentary on future growth, demand outlook, margins and capital expenditure plans could have a greater impact on investor confidence than the quarterly numbers themselves.

Corporate Earnings in Spotlight

The ongoing earnings season is expected to provide fresh insights into how Indian companies are navigating domestic demand, global uncertainties and inflationary pressures. Financial institutions and information technology companies are likely to remain in focus as investors assess sector-specific trends for the remainder of the financial year.

Strong earnings could support market sentiment, while any disappointing guidance may trigger stock-specific volatility.

Middle East Tensions and Crude Oil

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East will remain another key variable. Rising tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed global crude oil prices higher, raising concerns over inflation and India's import bill.

During the previous week, Brent crude gained nearly 5%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced more than 4%. Since India imports a significant portion of its crude oil requirements, sustained higher oil prices could weigh on corporate profitability and the broader economy.

Institutional Investors to Influence Sentiment

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) will also remain under close watch. Last week, FIIs recorded net purchases worth approximately ₹4,670 crore, while DIIs bought shares worth nearly ₹8,280 crore, providing strong support to domestic equities.

Analysts believe continued institutional buying could help offset any volatility arising from global developments.

Global Markets Remain a Key Indicator

Indian equities are also expected to take cues from international markets. US indices ended the previous session in positive territory, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite posting modest gains. Asian markets also remained firm, led by South Korea's Kospi and Japan's Nikkei, reflecting improved investor confidence across the region.

Global economic data, central bank commentary and geopolitical developments are likely to influence risk appetite during the week.

Technical Levels to Watch

According to market analysts, the Nifty 50 continues to trade near its important moving averages. Technical experts identify the 24,500–24,550 range as a significant resistance zone. A decisive breakout above this level may strengthen bullish momentum.

On the downside, the 23,900–23,950 zone is expected to act as a strong support area. Traders are likely to monitor these levels closely while positioning themselves for short-term market movements.

Markets Ended Previous Week on a Strong Note

Indian benchmark indices closed sharply higher on Friday. The BSE Sensex gained 828 points, or 1.08%, to settle at 77,569, while the NSE Nifty advanced 244 points, or 1.02%, to finish at 24,206. Banking and real estate stocks led the rally, supported by renewed buying from institutional investors.

With earnings season gathering pace and global uncertainties continuing to influence investor sentiment, market participants are expected to remain cautious while responding to corporate results, geopolitical developments and macroeconomic signals throughout the week.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Investors should consult certified financial advisors before making investment decisions.

The BSE Sensex plunged 1,677 points to close at 76,504, while the NSE Nifty 50 dropped 517 points, ending the session at 23,882. The market downturn reflected growing investor concerns over global economic uncertainty, rising energy costs, and escalating geopolitical risks that continue to impact financial markets worldwide.

Broad-Based Selling Across Markets

The weakness was not limited to benchmark indices. The broader market also witnessed heavy selling pressure, with the NSE Midcap 100 Index declining more than 1.5%, while the Smallcap 100 Index fell over 2.2% during the trading session.

Market participants remained cautious as higher crude oil prices raised fears of inflationary pressures, which could impact corporate earnings and economic growth. Investors also preferred to book profits amid heightened volatility in global markets.

Oil Prices Fuel Market Concerns

One of the biggest triggers behind Wednesday's sell-off was the sharp jump in global crude oil prices.

Brent Crude traded nearly 6% higher at $78.59 per barrel, while WTI Crude gained over 6.1% to $74.77 per barrel during intraday trade.

Higher crude prices are generally considered negative for India, one of the world's largest crude oil importers. Rising oil costs can widen the country's trade deficit, increase inflation, and put pressure on corporate profitability, especially in sectors dependent on fuel and transportation.

Rupee Weakens Against Dollar

The Indian rupee also came under pressure in the foreign exchange market.

The domestic currency depreciated by 60 paise, trading at ₹95.56 against the US dollar. A weaker rupee makes imports, particularly crude oil, more expensive and may further add to inflationary pressures.

Currency market participants attributed the weakness to higher demand for the US dollar amid global risk aversion and rising oil prices.

Bullion Prices Ease

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, bullion prices witnessed some correction during the day.

In the domestic bullion market, 24-carat gold traded at around ₹1,43,560 per 10 grams, while silver was quoted at approximately ₹2,24,030 per kilogram during the latest available trading session.

Analysts said bullion prices remained volatile as investors balanced safe-haven demand against profit booking.

Global Factors Weigh on Sentiment

Market experts believe that a combination of global uncertainties, rising crude oil prices, and geopolitical developments has weakened investor confidence.

Concerns over inflation, expectations regarding global central bank policies, and uncertainty surrounding international conflicts prompted investors to reduce exposure to equities.

Analysts expect markets to remain volatile in the coming sessions, with crude oil prices, global economic data, foreign institutional investor activity, and geopolitical developments likely to dictate market direction.

Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has indicated that petrol and diesel prices in India could be reduced if international crude oil prices remain low for the next few weeks, offering hope of relief for consumers amid easing global energy markets.

Speaking on the outlook for domestic fuel prices, the minister said the government and public sector oil marketing companies are closely monitoring global crude oil trends before taking a final decision. He suggested that any reduction in retail fuel prices would depend on sustained stability in international crude prices rather than short-term fluctuations.

Global crude oil prices have softened in recent weeks following easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia and the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The decline has led to expectations that Indian consumers could also benefit if the lower prices continue.

Despite the fall in crude prices, petrol and diesel rates at retail outlets operated by public sector oil marketing companies have remained unchanged. According to the minister, these companies are still recovering losses incurred during the period when international crude prices surged sharply, prompting a cautious approach to any immediate reduction in retail fuel prices.

Industry experts believe sustained lower crude prices would improve the financial position of oil marketing companies, making a revision in fuel prices more feasible. However, officials have indicated that any decision will be based on market conditions over the coming weeks rather than a temporary decline in global prices.

Meanwhile, the government has also revised export duties on certain petroleum products in response to changing global oil prices. Effective July 1, export duties on diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) have been reduced, while the export duty on petrol has been increased to help ensure adequate domestic supplies.

Private fuel retailer Nayara Energy recently announced a reduction in petrol and diesel prices across its retail network. However, Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, which together account for the majority of the country's fuel retail market, have not announced any changes in pump prices so far.

Officials said fuel prices in India continue to be influenced by multiple factors, including international crude oil prices, exchange rates, taxes and the financial position of oil marketing companies. Consumers are now awaiting further clarity on whether the recent decline in crude prices will translate into lower retail fuel prices in the coming weeks.

In a surprising market move on July 1, 2026, India's largest private fuel retailer, Nayara Energy, announced a substantial price rollback at its pumps. The company has slashed petrol prices by ₹5 per litre and diesel by ₹3 per litre nationwide.

Following the price revision, retail prices at Nayara pumps in Bhopal have dropped cleanly: petrol now stands at ₹119.79 per litre (down from ₹125), while diesel is priced at ₹102.57 per litre (down from ₹106). This marks the country's first retail fuel price reduction by any oil marketing company (OMC) in more than two years.

Easing of US-Iran War Tensions Pushes Global Crude Back to $73

The domestic price cut is a direct consequence of shifting geopolitics. Global crude benchmarks, which had previously spiked past the $100-to-$126 mark due to the military escalation in West Asia and the sub-sequential closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz maritime corridor, have cooled significantly.

Following the signing of the historic US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on June 17, shipping channels reopened, easing international supply bottlenecks. On Tuesday, Brent crude futures slid to around $72.51 to $73 per barrel, providing private refiners the financial headroom to pass on discount benefits directly to Indian motorists.

State-Owned Refiners Tighten Grip, Keeping Prices Unchanged

Despite Nayara's aggressive pricing strategy, state-owned energy giants have chosen to remain completely passive.

Domestic Fuel Retailing Space Market Share:
├── State-Run OMCs (IOCL, BPCL, HPCL) : 93% (Prices frozen at current rates)
└── Private Retailer (Nayara Energy)  :  7% (Prices slashed on July 1)

The three state-run giants, which operate over 90,000 outlets across India, have yet to announce a corresponding rollback. To recall, these public sector firms aggressively raised fuel prices by a cumulative ₹7.50 per litre in staggered increments back in May, citing import costs from the peak of the global crude crisis. Motorists will only see the ₹5 and ₹3 price reliefs if they fill up explicitly at Nayara-branded stations.

Nayara's Growing Energy Infrastructure Footprint

Formerly known as Essar Oil, Nayara Energy is heavily backed by Russian energy giant Rosneft. The company operates India's second-largest single-site refinery at Vadinar, Gujarat, which pumps out roughly 20 million tonnes per annum—accounting for a vital 8% of India's total domestic refining capacity.

Having just completed a month-long scheduled refinery turnaround and maintenance cycle in late spring, company officials confirmed they are fully geared to meet fresh demand. The private giant is also stepping up its green transition, setting up massive ethanol plants and solar-powering over 1,000 of its retail fuel stations.

Wider Financial Reconfigurations Effective July 1, 2026

Nayara's retail price cut lands alongside several sweeping structural and regulatory policy revisions implemented by the government on the turn of the month:

• Commercial LPG Slid: Public sector OMCs slashed the price of 19-kg commercial LPG cylinders by an average of ₹180. In New Delhi, a commercial cylinder now retails at ₹2,930, though domestic 14.2-kg cylinders remain unchanged.

• Fuel Rationing Lifted: The Ministry of Petroleum has officially withdrawn the emergency daily 200-litre rationing limit per vehicle for diesel sales, which was introduced during the peak of the West Asian transit halt.

• Passport Fees Hiked: Processing a fresh passport or requesting a reissue has become substantially costlier. Standard passport application fees have scaled from ₹1,500 up to ₹2,500.

• Railway Penalties Doubled: Indian Railways has implemented strict anti-ticketless travel bylaws; commuters caught without a valid ticket or transit pass face doubled baseline fines starting today.

Global crude oil prices eased back to the level seen just before the US-Iran conflict, bringing some relief to energy markets, even as Indian consumers face fresh price hikes on premium tech products and select semiconductor stocks surge on AI demand.

Benchmark Brent crude settled around $72 per barrel on Thursday — almost the same as $72.29 recorded a day before the conflict began on February 27. The drop comes after the US-Iran agreement and partial lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, which has started improving shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy experts, however, cautioned that any relief in domestic petrol and diesel prices may take time. According to energy analyst Narendra Taneja, the fuel currently sold at pumps was refined from expensive crude purchased earlier when rates were much higher. The full benefit of cheaper crude is likely to reflect only around Dussehra, after accounting for inventory lag and losses of oil marketing companies.

In a separate development, Apple has increased prices of its iPad and MacBook lineup in the US by up to $300. In India, the hike is even steeper, with some models becoming up to ₹1 lakh more expensive. The company cited rising costs of memory and storage chips due to massive demand from AI data centres.

Meanwhile, in the global markets, US semiconductor major Micron Technology briefly surpassed Meta Platforms and Tesla in market capitalisation. Driven by strong demand for AI-related memory chips, Micron’s shares jumped sharply, pushing its market value to around $1.37 trillion at one point.

The developments reflect the mixed signals emerging after the Iran conflict — easing energy prices on one side and rising input costs in the tech sector on the other. For Indian consumers, the Apple price increase is likely to dent demand for premium devices in the coming festive season.

Share markets remained closed on Friday. No change was reported in petrol and diesel prices on Thursday either.

The coming weeks will be watched closely for how global crude prices behave and whether oil marketing companies pass on any benefits to consumers. On the tech front, the AI boom continues to reshape valuations, with companies like Micron gaining significantly from the infrastructure buildout.

Further movement in both energy and technology sectors will depend on how quickly supply chains normalise and geopolitical tensions remain under check.

Global crude oil prices have cooled down to the level seen just before the US-Iran conflict erupted, offering some hope for lower fuel costs in India, though experts say common people may have to wait till Dussehra for any real relief at petrol pumps.

On Thursday, benchmark Brent crude settled around $72 per barrel — almost the same as $72.29 recorded on February 27, a day before the conflict began. The easing comes after the US-Iran agreement on June 17, partial lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and gradual normalisation of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Officials said nearly 80 vessels have passed through the strategic waterway since Monday. While this marks improvement, the daily average is still lower than the pre-war figure of over 100 ships.

Energy expert Narendra Taneja said that despite the fall in international crude prices, petrol and diesel rates in India are unlikely to drop immediately. “The fuel we are buying at pumps right now was made from crude oil purchased when rates were hovering around $110-125 per barrel for Indian refiners,” he explained.

It takes roughly 75-80 days for fresh crude to reach petrol pumps. Loading at source ports takes 15-20 days, transportation to Indian ports another 55-60 days, followed by refining and distribution. Only after this cycle will the benefit of cheaper crude reflect at outlets.

Oil marketing companies are currently incurring losses of around ₹7.5 per litre on petrol and diesel. The government had earlier reduced excise duty by ₹10 per litre, which provided some buffer. Companies are expected to first recover part of their losses before passing on the benefits to consumers.

Taneja added that some relief could begin by the end of August or early September, with more noticeable cuts possibly around Dussehra. “I don’t see crude prices rising sharply in the near future, so the downward trend should hold,” he noted.

The development has brought cautious optimism among industry watchers. Lower global crude not only helps reduce India’s import bill but also supports the broader economy by checking inflation. However, the lag in transmission of prices remains a key challenge for policymakers and consumers alike.

Further movement in fuel prices will also depend on how quickly shipping through Hormuz returns to normal and any fresh geopolitical triggers. For now, the government and oil companies are monitoring the situation closely.

As households continue to feel the pinch of high fuel costs, many are hoping the expected relief materialises sooner rather than later, especially ahead of the festive season.

Fourth hike this month pushes up CNG rates by ₹6 so far

Compressed natural gas prices were hiked by ₹2 per kilogram on Tuesday, marking the fourth increase in the last two weeks. Indraprastha Gas Limited revised the rates across Delhi-NCR, pushing CNG in the national capital to ₹83.09 per kg.

The latest revision comes a day after oil companies raised petrol and diesel prices for the fourth time this month. Petrol now costs ₹102.12 per litre in Delhi, while diesel is at ₹95.20.

For commuters in Noida, Ghaziabad and Greater Noida, CNG will now cost ₹91.70 per kg. Gurugram residents will pay ₹88.12 per kg.

Why prices are rising

The sustained price revision is being driven by volatility in global crude oil markets. Sources indicate crude prices have climbed from around $70 per barrel before the Iran-US conflict to over $100 per barrel now.

State-owned oil marketing companies have been absorbing significant losses in recent weeks. According to Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary at the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, companies were losing approximately ₹1,000 crore daily on selling petrol, diesel and domestic cooking gas before the price revision cycle began on May 15.

That figure has since reduced to about ₹600 crore per day following the staggered hikes, officials said.

Ripple effect on household budgets

The cascading impact of rising fuel prices is already visible across sectors. Transporters are expected to revise freight charges, which will directly affect prices of vegetables, fruits and other essentials coming from other states.

Farming communities are also feeling the pressure. Higher diesel prices mean increased operational costs for tractors and irrigation pumps, potentially pushing up grain prices in the coming months.

Commuters may need to prepare for higher bus and auto-rickshaw fares as operators pass on the increased CNG cost. School bus services in Delhi-NCR are also likely to revise their monthly fees.

CNG vehicle sales defying price trend

Interestingly, the repeated price hikes have not dampened demand for CNG-powered vehicles. Dealers in Bhopal report a 50 per cent increase in CNG vehicle sales over the last three years, with showrooms selling 10 to 15 such units daily.

Industry observers attribute this to the fuel's still-lower cost compared to petrol and diesel, along with better mileage. Whether this trend holds if prices continue rising remains to be seen.

Officials have indicated that further revisions cannot be ruled out if crude oil remains elevated for a prolonged period.