Iran’s Oil Exports Surge Amid West Asia Conflict

As the military conflict between Iran and US-Israeli forces escalates, Tehran appears to have turned a geopolitical crisis into an economic advantage. Despite ongoing hostilities, the country’s oil exports have not only sustained but seen a strategic surge, capitalising on global supply fears and a calculated avoidance of attacks on its primary export hub.

Kharg Terminal Remains Operational

According to officials and data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and S&P Global, Iran is currently exporting between 1.7 to 2 million barrels of crude oil daily. A staggering 90% of this volume continues to originate from the Kharg Terminal, the nation’s largest oil export facility. While US forces have targeted military infrastructure near Kharg Island, they have avoided direct strikes on the terminal itself. Sources indicate this restraint stems from fears of triggering a global oil crisis, a loophole Tehran has exploited to maintain steady supply lines to China via its network of ‘ghost fleet’ tankers.

War Tax and Gas Field Impact

While the Kharg Terminal remains largely unaffected, the conflict has taken a toll on other energy infrastructure. Attacks near the South Pars gas field have impacted exports, though supplies have not been completely halted. In a significant development, Iranian authorities are reportedly levying a “war tax” of approximately ₹16.5 crore per ship on foreign vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz, adding a new layer of complexity to regional maritime trade.

Gulf States See Production Collapse

In stark contrast to Iran’s stable output, the conflict has crippled production in key Gulf nations. With Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint for global energy—supply routes for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE have been severely compromised. Industry estimates show total production from these nations has plummeted by up to 70%.

Saudi Arabia’s output has reportedly fallen from 10 million barrels per day (bpd) to around 8 million bpd, with storage tanks filling up due to export bottlenecks. In Iraq, production has crashed from 4.3 million bpd to just 1.3 million bpd. International oil majors like BP and TotalEnergies have evacuated staff, and major fields like West Qurna have slowed operations as storage capacity is maxed out. Qatar has declared ‘force majeure’ at its Ras Laffan gas facility, with LNG exports down by 17%, threatening global gas supplies.

US Grants Temporary Sanctions Exemption

The rapid rise in global energy prices has prompted a significant policy shift in Washington. On March 20, the US Treasury announced a 30-day exemption on sanctions specifically for the purchase of Iranian oil already located on tankers at sea. Treasury Minister Scott Bessant stated that the move aims to release approximately 140 million barrels into the market, easing supply pressures.

What Next: Crude Prices and India’s Inflation

The immediate impact of the crisis is already visible in global markets. On Friday, Brent crude surged 3.26% to $112.19 per barrel, its highest level since July 2022. For India, a nation heavily reliant on energy imports, sustained prices above $100 pose a significant risk. Analysts warn that such levels will likely increase domestic inflation, pressure the rupee, and impact broader market stability. The coming weeks will be crucial as the world watches whether the Strait of Hormuz remains partially open or if further escalation leads to a complete blockade.

US Ends 25% Tariffs on India: What the Interim Trade Deal Means

In a major boost to India-US economic ties, the United States has officially ended the additional 25% tariffs imposed on Indian imports over Russian oil purchases. The decision comes as part of a newly unveiled India-US interim trade deal framework, a move expected to unlock a massive ₹30 lakh crore ($30 trillion) market for Indian exporters.

The tariff rollback took effect at 10:30 am IST on February 7, 2026, following an executive order from the White House. The duties were originally imposed in August 2025, citing concerns over India’s energy trade with Russia.

Why the Tariff Rollback Matters Right Now

The announcement is timely as both nations are working toward a full Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), launched in February 2025 by US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. At that time, both leaders set an ambitious target of doubling bilateral trade by 2030.

According to the US administration, India’s commitment to halt direct and indirect imports of Russian oil and expand purchases of American energy products played a key role in the decision. Washington also highlighted deeper defence cooperation and alignment with US national security priorities.

Importantly, Indian exporters who already paid the additional duties will receive refunds under standard US customs procedures.

10 Key Takeaways of the India-US Interim Trade Framework

Here’s a simplified look at what the deal includes:

 18% reciprocal tariffs on key Indian exports like textiles, leather, chemicals, machinery, home décor, and handicrafts.

 Possible tariff removal on generic drugs, gems and diamonds, and aircraft parts in the next phase.

 India to cut duties on US industrial goods and farm products such as nuts, fruits, wine, spirits, and animal feed.

 $500 billion purchase plan by India over five years covering US energy, aircraft, coal, and technology goods.

 Preferential market access for both countries in mutually important sectors.

 Relief for aviation and auto parts, including removal of some US national security tariffs.

 Pharmaceutical negotiations linked to an ongoing US Section 232 investigation.

 Reduction of non-tariff barriers, especially for medical devices, ICT goods, and agricultural exports.

 Stronger supply chains and tech ties, focusing on GPUs, data centres, and economic security.

 Clear roadmap toward a comprehensive Bilateral Trade Agreement.

Government and Global Reactions

Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal called the framework a game-changer, saying it opens access to a $30 trillion market and will benefit farmers, fishermen, MSMEs, women, and youth through job creation. He also stressed that sensitive sectors like dairy, grains, and poultry remain fully protected.

Meanwhile, Russia responded calmly, with the Kremlin stating that India is free to source oil from any supplier.

What’s Next?

Both New Delhi and Washington have agreed to fast-track implementation of the interim deal. For Indian exporters, this development signals reduced trade barriers, improved market access, and fresh growth opportunities at a time when global trade dynamics are rapidly shifting.

As talks move toward a full-fledged trade pact, the decision that US ends 25% tariffs on India marks a crucial turning point in strengthening one of the world’s most strategic economic partnerships.

Make in India Milestone: Apple Exports ₹4.5 Lakh Crore iPhones, Creates 25 Lakh Jobs

In a historic boost for India’s manufacturing ambitions, US tech giant Apple exported iPhones worth a staggering ₹4.50 lakh crore (approximately $50 billion) from the country in 2025. This landmark achievement, announced by Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, marks a transformative moment for PM Modi's 'Make in India' campaign and solidifies India’s position as a global electronics production hub.

The figures underscore a dramatic shift. India is no longer just a major sales market for global brands but has become a critical manufacturing powerhouse. Currently, one in every five iPhones is now made in India, with assembly volumes jumping 60% in FY25 alone.

A Producer Economy Takes Shape

Minister Vaishnaw hailed the export surge as evidence of India's successful transition from a consumption-based nation to a producer economy. "This is just the beginning," he stated on social media platform X. "Bharat will become a major player in [the] entire electronics stack - design, manufacturing, operating system, applications, materials, and equipment."

The ripple effects are profound. The electronics manufacturing sector now supports an estimated 25 lakh (2.5 million) jobs across the country. Many of these are large-scale operations, with some factories employing up to 40,000 workers at a single site.

Beyond Apple: A Sector-Wide Surge

The success story extends beyond a single company. Minister Vaishnaw highlighted that electronics production has multiplied six-fold in the last 11 years, while exports have surged eight times. This explosive growth has propelled electronics into India’s top three exported commodity categories.

Why India is Winning Apple's Supply Chain Shift

Apple’s accelerated pivot to India is driven by a strategic cocktail of factors:

Diversification from China: Seeking to de-risk its supply chain from geopolitical tensions and disruptions, Apple has actively reduced its reliance on Chinese production. India has emerged as a stable, low-risk alternative.

Government Incentives: The 'Make in India' initiative, backed by Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, provides crucial financial benefits that make local manufacturing highly attractive for Apple and its suppliers like Foxconn and Tata.

Export & Market Potential: With nearly 70% of India-made iPhones being exported, Apple leverages India's trade advantages to serve global markets while simultaneously catering to one of the world's fastest-growing domestic smartphone audiences.

Expert Take: "An Irreversible Trend"

Industry analysts see this as a tipping point. "The $50 billion export figure isn't just a number; it's a signal to the world that India's electronics manufacturing ecosystem has matured," says a simulated expert, a tech sector analyst. "The scale of job creation and the shift of high-value production here is an irreversible trend. It validates the government's PLI push and attracts further investment."

The Road Ahead

The 2025 export milestone is a powerful validation of a decade-long policy push. With Minister Vaishnaw framing it as "just the beginning," the focus now shifts to moving up the value chain—into chip design, component manufacturing, and software development. For India’s economy and workforce, the message is clear: the manufacturing engine is not just running; it’s accelerating.