Tehran has tempered expectations of a swift agreement with Washington to end months of conflict, stating that no final decision has been taken on the proposed truce. Qatari negotiators landed in the Iranian capital on Saturday to help bridge remaining gaps, even as US President Donald Trump claimed a deal could be sealed as early as Sunday.

Mixed Signals from Tehran

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said political, legal and technical reviews of the proposed agreement are still underway. While rejecting claims of a signing on Sunday, officials indicated that an understanding could still be reached in the coming days. The ministry also announced new regulations to monitor shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, with possible future levies on vessels using the vital waterway.

The comments came hours after Trump asserted that the deal would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping and mark a major improvement in bilateral ties. Washington and Islamabad have expressed optimism that a framework agreement could end nearly four months of hostilities.

Qatari Mediators Step In

A high-level Qatari delegation, led by an adviser to Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, arrived in Tehran to push for final approval. Iranian state media ISNA and Tasnim reported that the team aims to review the latest developments in the diplomatic track. Sources familiar with the matter told Reuters the visit is part of intense last-minute efforts to finalise the truce.

Background of the Conflict

The current tensions stem from escalated hostilities involving the US, Israel and Iran that began earlier this year. The 12-day war with Israel last year remains fresh in Iranian memory, with President Masoud Pezeshkian recently hailing it as a “symbol of national solidarity.” Reports also emerged of Iran securing tunnels at the Isfahan nuclear facility amid the uncertainty.

Protests on Iranian Streets

Public reaction in Iran has been mixed. In Mashhad, dozens gathered outside the Foreign Ministry office to protest against what they see as excessive concessions. Demonstrators raised slogans against Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Bagher Ghalibaf, warning that the deal could weaken Iran’s strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Similar protests were reported in Tehran via social media videos.

Regional Ripples and Israeli Stance

The developments have kept the wider region on edge. Israel continued operations in southern Lebanon, issuing displacement orders for residents of 29 towns and villages and reporting the killing of seven Hezbollah fighters. Far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich reiterated strong positions against Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Israeli President Isaac Herzog praised Trump’s approach towards Iran.

India has also been drawn in, with New Delhi summoning a US diplomat over attacks on ships carrying Indian sailors. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly told External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar that violations of the Hormuz blockade would not be tolerated.

Political Reactions in the US

In Washington, Democratic lawmakers expressed scepticism. Senator Adam Schiff hoped the deal would hold but pointed to past broken promises. On the Republican side, some lawmakers continued to voice strong reservations about allowing Iran any path to nuclear weapons.

What Lies Ahead

According to reports, the proposed interim memorandum of understanding could be followed by 60 days of technical negotiations covering Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief, and management of the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides appear conscious of the high stakes — economic, strategic and humanitarian.

Iranian officials, including Ambassador Abolfazl Pasandideh, have emphasised that ordinary Iranians harbour no enmity towards the American people and seek mutual respect. The coming hours and days will be critical in determining whether the diplomatic momentum in Tehran translates into a concrete agreement.

The arrival of Qatari mediators has injected fresh urgency into efforts to end the war, but Tehran’s cautious tone suggests that several hurdles remain before any deal is finalised.

Ivanka Trump Faces Alleged IRGC-Linked Assassination Plot: FBI Makes Arrest

Report claims Iraqi national targeted former president's daughter in Florida as Iranian Foreign Minister cites US demands blocking ceasefire talks

US authorities have arrested an Iraqi national allegedly linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in connection with a plot to assassinate Ivanka Trump, according to a New York Post report. The development comes amid fragile diplomatic efforts to end the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran, where Tehran has blamed Washington’s “excessive demands” for stalling progress.

The FBI arrested 32-year-old Mohammed Baker Saad Daoud Al-Saadi for allegedly pledging to carry out the assassination. Investigators reportedly recovered a blueprint of the Florida residence of Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner, whose waterfront property is valued at around $24 million. The suspect had also shared a map of the area on the social media platform X, sources familiar with the investigation indicated.

Security Concerns in Trump Family

This incident highlights persistent security threats surrounding the Trump family even after Donald Trump returned to the White House. Ivanka Trump, who served as an advisor during her father’s first term, has largely stayed out of the public eye in recent years but remains a symbolic figure in American politics.

Local authorities in Florida have not issued a detailed public statement, but initial reports suggest heightened vigilance around the property. Security experts note that such plots, whether fully operational or aspirational, often exploit geopolitical tensions for motivation.

Iran Denies Direct Link, Pushes Diplomacy

In Tehran, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir on Thursday night. Araghchi reportedly told his Pakistani counterpart that Washington’s “excessive demands” remain the primary obstacle to any potential deal aimed at ending the conflict.

Pakistan has emerged as a key mediator in backchannel efforts, joined by Qatar and several Arab nations urging restraint. While some progress was reported in recent days, US officials have indicated that President Trump is still weighing options, including possible fresh military strikes if negotiations fail.

Fragile Ceasefire and Regional Tensions

The assassination plot news surfaces as the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint. Iran’s closure of the critical waterway earlier this year continues to disrupt global oil supplies, pushing prices higher. In India, fuel retailers hiked petrol and diesel prices for the third time this month, reflecting the ripple effects on import-dependent economies.

Arab nations, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, have counselled the US against renewed strikes, warning of wider regional instability. Meanwhile, Israeli forces continue operations in southern Lebanon and the West Bank, adding layers of complexity to mediation attempts.

Ground Reality and Public Impact

In Iranian port cities like Bandar Abbas, residents report mixed views on the Hormuz blockade. Some see it as leverage in talks, while others point to rising unemployment among dock workers and falling local business. Globally, the conflict has strained diplomatic channels and raised concerns over nuclear non-proliferation efforts, with recent UN talks ending without agreement.

The arrest of the Iraqi national is seen by some analysts as part of broader counter-terrorism operations targeting IRGC-linked networks. US officials have long accused the IRGC of orchestrating threats against American interests abroad.

What Lies Ahead

As diplomatic efforts enter a sensitive phase, the coming days could prove decisive. Pakistan’s continued engagement, along with Qatari support, may help bridge gaps. However, any new military escalation could further complicate the path to de-escalation.

President Trump has previously stated that oil prices would fall once the Iran situation is resolved. For now, markets remain volatile, and families like the Trumps face elevated security risks amid heightened global tensions.

Trump says Iran conflict will end “very quickly”; Senate moves to curb war powers

President reiterates goal to block Iran’s nuclear capability as Senate advances resolution limiting military action

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the United States will bring the conflict with Iran to a swift close, while the Republican-led Senate took the rare step of advancing a War Powers Resolution designed to prevent prolonged military operations without explicit congressional approval.

Speaking at a White House event attended by lawmakers and aides in the late morning, Trump portrayed Tehran as anxious for a deal and said US forces would stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. “They want to make a deal so badly; they’re tired of this,” he said, adding that US pressure would continue until objectives were met. “We’ve done a hell of a good job… we’re going to be finished with that very quickly,” he said.

Senate moves

In Congress, senators voted to advance a measure that would curtail the president’s ability to conduct sustained military action against Iran without congressional authorisation. The procedural vote marked an unusual assertion of legislative oversight at a time of heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran.

According to Capitol Hill aides, the resolution could still face amendments and is likely to be the subject of tough partisan debate as supporters frame it as a defence of constitutional checks and balances, while opponents argue it could constrain rapid response options for commanders in the field.

Iran’s response

In Tehran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any renewed conflict would “feature many more surprises,” posting on X (formerly Twitter) that Iran was prepared for escalation. Araghchi cited reporting he said showed dozens of US aircraft damaged or lost since strikes began in February and claimed Iranian forces were the first to down an F-35 — an assertion that has not been independently verified by third-party military analysts.

“Months after initiation of war on Iran, US Congress acknowledges loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions,” he wrote, invoking a Congressional Research Service document. Iranian state media amplified the remarks, underscoring Tehran’s effort to project resilience amid growing international concern.

Regional flare-ups

The broader region saw several security flashpoints overnight. Israeli aircraft struck towns in southern Lebanon, local media reported, while Israel said it intercepted a Gaza-bound flotilla and transferred 430 activists to Israeli vessels after an interception at sea. The US also announced a fresh round of sanctions targeting Iranian-linked currency exchange houses, front companies and a fleet of vessels accused of enabling Tehran to skirt restrictions and fund regional activities.

South Korea, meanwhile, said it held “serious discussions” after a South Korean-operated ship, the HMM Namu, was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on May 4. Seoul is analysing recovered debris to determine what struck the vessel and who was responsible.

White House posture

The Trump administration has combined diplomacy with military readiness. Vice-President JD Vance said Washington remains “locked and loaded” should negotiations fail to produce a nuclear deal, while administration officials said sanctions and targeted strikes would remain tools to deter Tehran.

State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott described the latest sanctions as part of an “economic fury campaign.” US officials have also been engaged in shuttle diplomacy with regional partners and consultations at NATO and with allies to prevent the conflict from widening.

What happens next

The Senate will continue to consider the War Powers Resolution, and a vote on final passage could come in the coming days. Diplomacy remains active in parallel: negotiators in Europe and the Gulf are reported to be pressing for renewed talks aimed at de-escalation and a framework to limit Iran’s nuclear activities.

On the ground, militaries in the Gulf and eastern Mediterranean are on heightened alert, diplomats said, while commercial shipping firms rerouted vessels after recent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn that even if Washington and Tehran step back from direct confrontation, proxy incidents and third-party strikes could sustain instability.

For now, Washington’s mix of public warnings, sanctions and a pending congressional rebuke underscores a delicate moment: officials say they seek a quick, decisive outcome, but lawmakers and regional actors are preparing for a longer, risk-filled period if diplomacy falters.

Iran's Araghchi Arrives in New Delhi Today for BRICS Talks; Hormuz Safe Passage High on Agenda

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi lands in New Delhi this morning for a two-day BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting, with bilateral talks expected to focus on securing safe movement for Indian vessels through the Strait of Hormuz amid rising West Asian tensions.

 Strategic Visit Amid Regional Turbulence

Araghchi is scheduled to touch down on Wednesday, 13 May, ahead of the BRICS gathering being hosted by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on May 14 and 15. This marks the Iranian diplomat's first visit to India since the escalation of hostilities involving Tehran, Washington, and Israel earlier this year.

Sources familiar with the matter said the two ministers are likely to sit down on the summit sidelines specifically to address concerns over India-flagged ships and oil tankers navigating the narrow strait. The waterway, a chokepoint for global crude shipments, has become increasingly volatile.

 40-50 India-Bound Vessels Affected

The urgency isn't hypothetical. Initial reports indicate that between 40 and 50 vessels headed for Indian ports remain stranded west of the Hormuz passage. For a country that imports roughly 85 per cent of its oil requirements, any prolonged disruption spells immediate trouble.

Officials point out that New Delhi is walking a tightrope—protecting energy security while avoiding entanglement in a conflict that shows no signs of cooling. Araghchi and Jaishankar have already held several telephone conversations in recent weeks, focusing on the safety of Indian nationals and the uninterrupted movement of commercial shipping.

Lavrov Also in Attendance

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will also participate in the Delhi meeting, according to the Russian foreign ministry. Spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed that discussions will cover global governance, pressing international issues, and preparations for the 18th BRICS Summit scheduled for September in New Delhi.

India's BRICS Presidency

This is India's fourth time leading the BRICS grouping, having previously hosted summits in 2012, 2016, and 2021. The theme for New Delhi's 2026 presidency—"Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability"—takes forward a people-centric approach articulated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the 2025 Rio Summit.

The expanded bloc now includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia.

Chabahar Port, Wider Ties on Table

Beyond the immediate crisis management, Araghchi's visit is expected to reinforce broader India-Iran cooperation. The development of Chabahar Port—a strategic project that gives New Delhi an alternative trade route bypassing Pakistan—remains a priority. Energy linkages and regional diplomacy will also feature.

With tensions showing no signs of easing, both sides recognise that maintaining secure sea lanes isn't just a bilateral concern but a matter of global trade stability. Araghchi's trip, while brief, signals that diplomatic channels remain open even as warships patrol contested waters.

Trump Warns of 'Project Freedom Plus' as Iran Slams US Strikes

Iran's Araghchi accuses US of ‘reckless military adventure’ amid fresh Hormuz clashes

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz spiked Friday as US forces struck Iranian military targets following attacks on American warships, prompting sharp accusations from Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi labeled the US actions a "reckless military adventure," claiming they targeted civilian areas near Chabahar port and oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. President Donald Trump, speaking at the White House, warned that failed nuclear talks could trigger "Project Freedom Plus," an expanded escort mission for stranded commercial vessels in the strait.

Araghchi's Fiery Rebuke

Araghchi's comments came late Thursday, after US Central Command reported Iranian missiles, drones, and small boats targeting US destroyers near the strait. "The US chooses reckless military adventure whenever diplomacy is within reach," he said, according to Iranian state media. Tehran countered with strikes on US ships, while denying any breach of the fragile ceasefire holding for over a month.

Sources familiar with the matter said the exchanges began early Friday morning local time, with US airstrikes hitting coastal bases by dawn. No US casualties were reported, but Iran alleged hits on non-military sites, escalating rhetoric ahead of weekend talks.

Trump Hints at Escalation

Trump told reporters before heading to his Virginia golf course that without a deal, Washington would revive the earlier "Project Freedom" initiative—paused amid negotiations—but beefed up. "It'll be Project Freedom plus other things," he added, stressing protection for global shipping routes vital for 20% of world oil. The strait remains a flashpoint, with commercial traffic disrupted since clashes began two months ago.

Oil Markets React

Brent crude jumped as much as 3% during Friday trading amid the flare-up, settling at $101.29 a barrel, up 1.23%. West Texas Intermediate closed at $95.42, up 0.64%, paring gains on hopes for an imminent US-Iran agreement. Traders watched closely, with prices volatile since the ceasefire took hold in April.

An oil spill off Iran's Kharg Island export terminal—spotted Tuesday via satellite—added uncertainty, though the Pentagon declined comment amid reports of Thursday strikes.

Iran's Satirical Jabs

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei mocked Trump's prior nuclear threat of "one big glow" from Iran if talks collapse. "Absurd... they seek peace yet propose a big flash," he posted on X, sharing a clip from the 1964 satire Dr. Strangelove.[query context] The taunt, repeated across outlets, underscores Tehran's defiance.

Regional Ripples

UAE defenses intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles and three drones Friday, with three injuries reported but no official Iranian response.[query context] In southern Lebanon, Israeli strikes killed at least 31, including a rescue worker, per state media; Hezbollah claimed 26 counterattacks.

US-mediated Israel-Lebanon peace talks are set for May 14-15 in Washington, focusing on borders, Hezbollah disarmament, and aid—despite ongoing fire.

Path Ahead Uncertain

With oil prices elevated and shipping at risk, diplomats push for a deal before Monday. Trump reiterated no nuclear weapons for Iran, while Araghchi vowed resistance to pressure. Markets and mariners await clarity from the Hormuz strait.

Trump Pauses Hormuz Operation as Iran Seeks China Support 

US President Donald Trump halts Project Freedom amid reported progress in talks with Tehran, even as Iran's Foreign Minister arrives in Beijing for crucial discussions on the ongoing Strait of Hormuz standoff.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions Ease Temporarily

US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday evening the temporary suspension of the US military’s “Project Freedom” operation aimed at safely evacuating stranded ships from the Strait of Hormuz. Citing “great progress” towards a potential agreement with Iran, Trump said the pause would last for a short period to allow diplomatic efforts to advance.

The operation, launched just days earlier on May 4, had seen limited success, with reports indicating only a few ships managed safe passage amid Iranian resistance. The US Navy’s USS George H.W. Bush had been deployed as part of the effort, but clashes persisted in the vital waterway.

Iranian Diplomacy Shifts to Beijing

In a parallel development, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Beijing on Wednesday as head of a high-level delegation. He is scheduled to hold talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on bilateral relations as well as pressing regional and international issues.

This marks Araghchi’s first visit to China since the escalation of hostilities. Analysts see the trip as an attempt by Tehran to bolster diplomatic and economic backing from its key partner, which continues to import significant Iranian oil despite pressures.

Oil Markets React Positively

Oil prices eased for a second straight day on hopes of de-escalation. Brent crude fell around 1.4 per cent to near $108 per barrel, while WTI crude dipped similarly to about $100.77, according to market updates. The pause in operations and signals of dialogue helped ease immediate supply fears, though the US blockade of Iranian ports remains firmly in place.

Background of the Crisis

The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a fifth of global oil passes, has been at the centre of escalating tensions. Iran had declared control over the route earlier in March and restricted access to its adversaries. A fragile ceasefire was announced in April, but differences persisted, particularly over Israeli actions in Lebanon and other regional fronts.

Project Freedom was positioned by Washington as a humanitarian and security measure to free trapped commercial vessels rather than a combat operation. However, Iranian forces reportedly confronted US efforts, leading to exchanges of fire. Local authorities on Iran’s Qeshm Island also reported confronting reconnaissance drones recently.

Regional Ripple Effects

The crisis has had wider consequences. The UAE faced fresh missile and drone attacks from Iran, which it said were successfully intercepted. India expressed strong concern over injuries to its citizens in the Fujairah area and called for an immediate end to violence against civilians.

Iraq, heavily reliant on oil exports, offered discounted crude at around ₹3,100 per barrel delivered via its tankers, highlighting the economic strain on producers. Australia, meanwhile, announced a massive $7.2 billion fuel reserve plan to safeguard against future global shocks.

Inside Israel, a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute indicated that a majority of respondents, particularly Jewish Israelis, oppose ending the conflict with Iran under current conditions, citing national security concerns.

US Policy and Domestic Voices

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the broader war against Iran, referred to as Operation Epic Fury, had achieved its objectives and was over. However, the naval blockade continues as leverage. Some US lawmakers, including Raja Krishnamoorthi, have criticised the administration’s characterisation of the situation.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated that Tehran would not submit to unilateral demands under a “maximum pressure” policy. Iran has also warned the UAE against allowing its territory to be used for actions against Iranian interests.

What Lies Ahead

The coming days will be critical as diplomatic tracks in Beijing and elsewhere run parallel to the maintained US blockade. While Trump’s pause offers a window for negotiations, the underlying disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional security remain unresolved.

Shipping companies and energy markets will be watching closely for any concrete breakthroughs. For now, the temporary halt in Project Freedom provides cautious relief to global oil supply concerns, but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains fragile.

US Considers Hypersonic Missile Deployment as Iran Accuses Pentagon of Hiding War Costs

Tehran has hit back sharply at Washington over the ongoing costs of the US-Iran conflict, even as reports emerge of American military leaders presenting fresh strike options to President Donald Trump. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed on Friday that US spending has already reached $100 billion, far exceeding official Pentagon figures, and accused Israel’s actions of dragging America into an expensive gamble.

Araghchi posted on X that “the Pentagon is lying” and that Netanyahu’s approach has directly cost the US $100 billion so far—four times what has been publicly claimed. He added that American households are bearing roughly $500 in monthly costs, with indirect expenses likely much higher. The remarks came amid a fragile ceasefire that has held since early April but shows signs of strain.

Tensions Over War Costs and Narratives

Iranian officials have repeatedly challenged the US framing of the conflict as self-defence. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei criticised a State Department document that justified American action as collective self-defence for Israel and the US’s own inherent right. “Self-defence against what?” Baghaei asked on social media, calling it a war of aggression.

On the ground, the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy flows and supply chains. Oil prices rose again on Friday, with Brent crude climbing about 1% to around $111 per barrel, reflecting persistent uncertainty. The blockade has also affected fertiliser shipments, prompting warnings from industry leaders that nearly 10 billion meals a week could be at risk for the world’s poorest nations if disruptions continue.

Internal Rifts in Iranian Leadership

Adding to the complexity, reports suggest growing friction inside Iran’s government. President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are reportedly seeking the removal of Foreign Minister Araghchi. According to Iran International, the two leaders believe Araghchi has bypassed the presidency and followed directives more aligned with the Revolutionary Guard, particularly from figures like Ahmad Vahidi.

These claims remain unconfirmed by Iranian state media, but they point to possible differences over how to handle negotiations and the military track. Meanwhile, Iran’s chief justice insisted Tehran has never left the negotiating table, stating the country welcomes talks based on “logic and rationality” while remaining unafraid of conflict if its dignity is threatened.

US Military Weighs Renewed Options

Late on Thursday, President Trump received a high-level briefing from US Central Command Commander Admiral Brad Cooper and Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine. Sources told outlets including Axios that the roughly 45-minute session included discussions on potential renewed action against Iran.

Separately, Bloomberg reported that CENTCOM has requested deployment of the Army’s Dark Eagle hypersonic missile system to the Middle East. The long-range weapon is seen as necessary to reach ballistic missile launchers that Iran has reportedly moved beyond the range of existing US systems like the Precision Strike Missile. If approved, this would mark the first operational deployment of America’s hypersonic capability, though the system is still limited in production and has faced development delays.

Impact on Global Economy and Region

The ripple effects are being felt far beyond the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance effective May 1, a move that could reshape oil production dynamics at a sensitive time. For India, a major importer, the development carries both risks from higher prices and potential opportunities if Gulf producers increase output independently.

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned that prolonged Hormuz tensions would slow his country’s economy, given Asia’s dependence on Gulf energy. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the strait’s closure as “strangling” global markets for energy, transport, manufacturing and food, urging dialogue to avoid further escalation.

In southern Lebanon, Israeli forces reported striking dozens of Hezbollah sites despite a nominal ceasefire, while Lebanese officials reported civilian casualties from fresh raids. These developments add layers of regional volatility even as the core US-Iran standoff dominates headlines.

What Lies Ahead

Talks mediated by Pakistan appear stalled, with sources indicating Iran may submit a revised peace proposal soon. Trump has suggested Iran is eager for a deal but also indicated that restarting military pressure remains on the table if needed. He has pushed back against European and other allies criticising Washington’s approach, at times hinting at adjustments to US troop presence in Europe.

For now, the ceasefire holds, yet military preparations continue on both sides. Analysts note that any resumption of direct strikes could further inflame oil markets and humanitarian concerns linked to supply disruptions. Iranian officials, meanwhile, maintain they did not initiate the broader conflict and retain the right to defend themselves.

The coming days will be critical as Washington weighs its next moves, Tehran manages internal and external pressures, and the world watches the economic fallout from one of the most significant disruptions to Gulf shipping in recent memory. Whether diplomacy gains traction or military options are exercised again remains uncertain, but the stakes—for energy security, regional stability and global food chains—could hardly be higher.

Iran Faces Oil Storage Crunch as Diplomatic Push Stalls Over Nuclear Demands

Tehran’s 22-day oil storage limit adds pressure amid US blockade and rejected ceasefire proposals involving the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran could run out of space to store its crude oil in as little as 22 days if current production rates continue without exports, according to data analytics firm Kpler. The warning comes as Tehran insists the conflict with the United States and Israel is far from over, while diplomatic efforts through mediators like Pakistan show little progress.

The US naval blockade has severely restricted Iran’s ability to ship oil abroad, causing onshore inventories to build up rapidly. Analysts at Kpler noted that usable storage, including some floating capacity, might offer a buffer of around 12 to 22 days. Experts caution that prolonged output cuts could damage older oil wells by reducing natural reservoir pressure, making future extraction more difficult and costly.

Storage Crisis Deepens Under Blockade

The situation has worsened since the US imposed its counter-blockade on vessels heading to or from Iranian ports in mid-April. Oil exports have reportedly dropped sharply, leaving tankers and storage facilities under strain. Initial reports indicate Tehran may soon face the choice of further slashing production, already down significantly from pre-conflict levels.

Local oil industry sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the mounting challenge in southern terminals near Bandar Abbas. “Facilities are filling faster than expected,” one industry watcher familiar with the data said. Any extended shutdown risks long-term harm to infrastructure that has already suffered from years of sanctions and now direct conflict-related disruptions.

Tehran Warns Conflict Not Over

Despite a fragile ceasefire in place since early April, Iranian officials maintain that war-like conditions persist. Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia stated clearly that the military does not consider the war ended. Security agencies continue constant monitoring, with warnings of responses using “new weapons, new methods, and on new fronts” should fresh attacks occur.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been active on the diplomatic front, making his third visit to Pakistan in quick succession before heading to Russia. In Moscow, he met President Vladimir Putin to discuss strategic ties and the regional situation. Russia has criticised the US and Israeli strikes, calling them a threat to international order.

Diverging Proposals on Hormuz and Nuclear Issues

At the heart of the deadlock are differing priorities over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran’s latest proposal, conveyed through Pakistani channels, called for three main steps: an immediate end to hostilities with guarantees against further attacks, lifting the US blockade and reopening the strait to restore shipping, and deferring complex nuclear questions to a later stage.

US President Donald Trump has rejected this approach, insisting that nuclear concerns cannot be sidelined. According to reports, the Trump administration views any reopening of the strait without addressing enrichment and uranium stockpiles as weakening its negotiating position. Washington prefers tackling both issues simultaneously.

Iran had earlier suggested a phased nuclear rollback — complete stop to enrichment for five years, followed by limited civilian use, with part of its stockpile moved to Russia under supervision. That too was turned down. Sources familiar with the talks said Iran is now preparing a fresh proposal, though it needs time for internal consultations, including with the Supreme Leader.

Trump has publicly claimed Iran is nearing collapse and urged quick reopening of the strait. In recent social media posts, he described Tehran as being in a “state of collapse,” while reiterating that the US will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.

Oil Markets React to Prolonged Uncertainty

Global oil prices continued their upward trend on reports of the extended US blockade. Brent crude futures rose modestly in early trading, reflecting concerns over disrupted supplies from the key Gulf region. The Panama Canal has seen increased traffic as shippers reroute to avoid the troubled Strait of Hormuz.

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry described the use of the strait as a “political weapon” as unacceptable, calling for de-escalation to protect regional stability and global energy flows.

Regional Ripple Effects

Tensions extend beyond the strait. In southern Lebanon, Israeli forces reported operations against Hezbollah infrastructure, while the group claimed drone attacks on Israeli positions. Separate incidents in the occupied West Bank saw arrests and clashes. France paid tribute to its peacekeepers killed in Lebanon, with President Emmanuel Macron attributing responsibility to Hezbollah.

Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz questioned aspects of US strategy, prompting a sharp response from Trump, who accused him of misunderstanding the nuclear threat. Meanwhile, the US Treasury announced new sanctions on what it called Iran’s “shadow banking” network, aimed at further isolating Tehran’s financial channels.

Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last Shah, urged continued pressure on the current government, suggesting targeted actions to encourage internal dissent.

What Lies Ahead

With storage limits approaching, Iran faces mounting economic strain that could force difficult choices on production and exports. Diplomatic shuttling continues, but deep differences over sequencing — ending the immediate blockade versus resolving nuclear issues — suggest talks may drag on.

Local authorities in affected Iranian regions are bracing for potential further cuts, while global markets watch closely for any breakthrough or escalation. Mediators in Islamabad and other capitals remain engaged, yet both sides appear unwilling to yield on core demands for now.

The coming days could prove decisive. If storage constraints tighten as projected, pressure on Tehran to compromise may grow, even as it warns of readiness for new responses. For now, the fragile ceasefire holds, but the risk of renewed disruption to one of the world’s critical energy arteries remains real.

Iranian FM Meets Pak Army Chief as US Pushes Indirect Talks

Islamabad Welcomes Araghchi

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Islamabad today, greeted by Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. Sources indicated the visit centres on regional peace efforts. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry confirmed discussions with senior leaders on ongoing developments. 

Araghchi aims to convey Tehran's "comprehensive" response via Pakistani intermediaries. No direct US talks are planned, despite White House hopes. This follows a fragile ceasefire after weeks of conflict.

US Envoys Arrive

US emissaries Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner headed to the Pakistani capital for in-person conversations. The White House sees this as a chance to restart negotiations. Iran, however, insists observations go through Pakistan only.

Tehran dismissed direct meetings outright. Officials stressed bilateral issues dominate Araghchi's agenda. Egypt and Pakistan voiced hopes for a stable truce during recent calls.

First Talks Fail

Pakistan hosted initial Iran-US talks on April 11-12, lasting 21 hours. Disagreements over Strait of Hormuz control and Iran's nuclear programme stalled progress. The US demands secure shipping lanes and nuclear curbs.

Iran defends its programme as peaceful, rejecting curbs. Tensions spiked after the US imposed a naval blockade. CENTCOM reported intercepting 33 vessels since April 13.

Hormuz Blockade Bites

Over 40 container ships remain stranded in the Gulf, hitting global trade hard. Firms like CMA CGM and MSC reroute, driving up costs. Panama Canal slots now fetch up to $4 million in auctions.

Oil prices surge as airlines warn of ticket hikes. British Airways cited jet fuel shortages. EU aviation authorities eye US-grade fuel imports. 

Iran Flexes Muscle

Defence Ministry spokesman Reza Talaei-Nik claimed Iran produces over 1,000 weapon types domestically, including missiles and drones. A "significant portion" of capabilities stays unused, he added. Facilities spread nationwide ensure continuity.

Iranian MP Ibrahim Azizi ruled out nuclear talks. Internal rifts emerge, with reports of negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf's exit. Hardliner Saeed Jalili may replace him.

Regional Flashpoints

Israeli strikes hit southern Lebanon towns, targeting Hezbollah sites despite ceasefire. Lebanon reported six deaths. IDF and Hezbollah trade violation accusations.

IRGC arrested 240 suspects in Kurdistan and Kermanshah raids, seizing arms. Iran hanged an alleged Israeli agent. Airports in Tehran and Mashhad resume limited flights.

Global Reactions Mount

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insisted on Hormuz control for world security. Treasury froze $344 million in Iran-linked crypto. Sanctions hit 40 Chinese shippers in Tehran's shadow fleet.

Germany deploys minesweepers for potential Hormuz ops. Russia accused US interventions of oil grabs. Shipping delays signal wider economic pain.

Future Talks Uncertain

Araghchi plans Oman and Russia visits next for coordination. Pakistan eyes a second round to ease escalation. Yet Tehran signals no compromise on core issues like nuclear rights or Hormuz influence.