Global RAM Shortage Set to Persist Until 2030, Driving Up Costs of Smartphones and Laptops

Memory chip crunch tightens as AI demand outpaces supply expansions

The global shortage of RAM and other memory chips, critical components in everyday electronics, shows no signs of easing soon. Industry leaders warn that supply constraints could stretch well into the next decade, pushing up prices for smartphones, laptops, gaming consoles, and other devices that millions of Indian consumers rely on daily.

According to recent reports, major memory manufacturers are struggling to keep pace with explosive demand fuelled primarily by artificial intelligence infrastructure. A detailed analysis by Nikkei Asia indicates that even with ongoing expansions, producers may fulfil only about 60 per cent of total DRAM demand by the end of 2027. The outlook appears even more challenging over the longer term.

SK Group Chairman Sounds Alarm

Chey Tae-won, chairman of South Korea’s SK Group, which controls SK Hynix—one of the world’s leading memory chip makers—has cautioned that the crunch could last until 2030. Speaking earlier this year on the sidelines of Nvidia’s GTC conference in San Jose, California, he pointed to persistent wafer shortages and the time required to scale production meaningfully. Wafer supply is reportedly lagging demand by more than 20 per cent, with new capacity additions taking four to five years to materialise.

“Securing additional wafers takes at least four to five years,” Chey noted, underscoring the structural nature of the imbalance.

Chipmakers Expand, But Focus Shifts to AI

Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology dominate the global DRAM market. All three are investing heavily in new fabrication facilities, yet most of these projects will not come online before 2027 or 2028. The lone significant addition expected in 2026 is SK Hynix’s facility in Cheongju, South Korea.

A large share of this new capacity is being directed towards high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a specialised, high-performance type of DRAM essential for AI servers and data centres. While this serves the booming needs of tech giants building AI infrastructure, it leaves relatively less room for standard DRAM used in consumer devices like phones and personal computers.

Research suggests that to match demand, DRAM production would need to grow by around 12 per cent annually in 2026 and 2027. Current plans, however, point to a more modest increase of roughly 7.5 per cent in some estimates, widening the gap further.

Rising Prices Hit Consumer Devices

The diversion of manufacturing focus towards AI has already begun affecting prices. Memory costs have surged significantly in recent quarters, with some reports noting DRAM prices nearly doubling or more in certain segments. This increase is feeding into the bill of materials for finished products.

In India, where affordable smartphones and budget laptops drive much of the market, the impact could be noticeable. Entry-level and mid-range devices, which operate on thinner margins, may see sharper price adjustments or even reduced availability of higher RAM configurations. Premium flagships might absorb some costs better, but overall average selling prices are expected to trend upward.

Analysts have flagged potential ripple effects: smartphone shipments could face pressure, while laptop makers have already signalled price hikes ranging from 10 to 30 per cent in some cases. Gaming handhelds, VR headsets, and even certain automotive and industrial applications that depend on memory chips are not immune.

Background: How AI Reshaped Memory Demand

The current cycle differs from past memory shortages. The rapid build-out of AI data centres has created sustained, high-volume demand for advanced memory. Hyperscalers and AI companies are locking in supplies through long-term contracts, further tightening the market for other buyers.

This shift has forced manufacturers to prioritise HBM production, sometimes at the expense of traditional DRAM lines. While overall memory output is rising, the composition favours high-end AI applications.

In India, the situation arrives against a backdrop of growing digital adoption. With millions upgrading phones and buying new laptops every year, sustained higher prices could slow momentum in the consumer electronics segment, particularly in price-sensitive Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities.

Local retailers and distributors have already reported tighter supplies and selective stock for higher-spec models in recent months. Some brands are reportedly rethinking product roadmaps to optimise memory usage or adjust configurations.

What Lies Ahead

Relief, if any, is not expected before late 2027 at the earliest, with fuller normalisation possibly only by 2028 or 2030 depending on how aggressively capacity ramps up and whether wafer production constraints are resolved.

Industry watchers suggest that until then, consumers might see continued upward pressure on device prices. Buyers planning big-ticket purchases could consider acting sooner or opting for configurations that balance performance with available memory options.

Manufacturers, on their part, continue to invest billions in expanding fabs, but the long lead times inherent to semiconductor production mean the market will remain tight for the foreseeable future.

For Indian consumers and businesses, the message is clear: the era of cheap, abundant memory may be on pause as the world races to power the AI revolution. How quickly the industry bridges this gap will determine the pace at which technology remains accessible to the masses.