The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has praised the resilience of the Indian economy after India recorded 7.8% real GDP growth in the April-June quarter of 2026-27, saying the country remains a key engine of global growth despite the impact of higher energy prices and wider global uncertainty.

IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack said India's latest quarterly performance was stronger than the Fund had anticipated. She attributed the momentum particularly to the country's services sector and exports. 

The latest growth figure also exceeded the Reserve Bank of India's earlier 7% estimate for the quarter. Official government data show that real GDP rose from ₹75.46 lakh crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year to ₹81.36 lakh crore in April-June 2026-27. 

Services and Exports Support India's Growth

India's latest GDP performance came despite a difficult global environment marked by geopolitical tensions, volatile commodity prices and an energy price shock.

The IMF said strong activity in services and better export performance helped India maintain momentum. Official data also point to broad-based domestic economic activity, with real GVA growing 8.2% during the quarter. Investment increased 11.9%, household consumption rose 7.1% and exports increased 12%. 

This combination of domestic demand, services activity and exports has helped the Indian economy withstand external pressures better than many expected.

IMF: India Remains a Global Growth Engine

Kozack reiterated the IMF's view that India continues to play an important role in driving global economic growth.

The Fund had already described India in July as one of the world's fastest-growing economies and a key engine of global growth. At that time, however, the IMF projected India's full-year FY2026-27 growth at 6.4%, meaning the newly reported 7.8% figure should not be interpreted as a revised full-year IMF forecast. 

The stronger-than-expected first-quarter performance could nevertheless influence future assessments as the IMF updates its projections.

Energy Shock Remains a Risk

India's strong quarterly growth does not mean the economy is insulated from the global energy crisis.

Kozack noted that India, as a major energy importer, has faced higher import costs and supply disruptions because of the energy shock. Higher energy prices can put pressure on production costs, inflation, the external balance and government finances. 

The IMF has nevertheless pointed to India's strong starting position as an important source of resilience. Low inflation, a relatively modest current-account deficit and substantial foreign-exchange reserves provided buffers when the latest energy shock hit. 

IMF Welcomes Changes in GDP Calculation

The IMF has also welcomed India's efforts to modernise its national accounts and improve the statistical framework used to calculate GDP.

The latest data incorporate updated statistical inputs, including a new Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and a new Producer Price Index (PPI) series. The IMF said these changes should strengthen the quality of India's GDP estimates. 

The changes are significant because the reliability of economic data has attracted increased attention following the release of the unexpectedly strong 7.8% growth figure.

Debate Over GDP Data Continues

While the government and the IMF have highlighted the strength and resilience reflected in the latest numbers, some economists have questioned aspects of the new GDP methodology.

Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg has argued that revisions to the previous year's data affect the interpretation of the headline growth rate. Reuters also reported that the 7.8% figure has generated debate over the methodology and transparency of the revised national accounts.

The debate does not change the official GDP estimate, but it means the latest growth number is likely to remain a subject of economic discussion as more detailed data become available.

For now, the combination of 7.8% quarterly growth, strong services activity, resilient domestic demand and exportsgives India a strong start to FY2026-27. The bigger test will be whether that momentum can be sustained as elevated energy prices and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on the global economy.

Venezuela has confirmed that the death toll from last month's devastating twin earthquakes has risen to 5,069, as the country begins a massive reconstruction effort backed by $346 million in emergency funding released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The earthquakes, measuring 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude, struck within a minute of each other on June 24, causing widespread destruction in the coastal state of La Guaira, about 40 kilometres northeast of the capital, Caracas.

Over 5,000 Lives Lost

National Assembly chief Jorge Rodriguez announced that the confirmed death toll has reached 5,069, with the worst devastation reported in La Guaira, where entire neighbourhoods suffered extensive damage.

Authorities said the number of injured remains at 16,740, with most patients having already been discharged from hospitals following weeks of emergency medical treatment.

Search, recovery and damage assessment operations have continued across the affected regions since the disaster struck.

IMF Releases Emergency Funding

The Venezuelan government also announced that it has accessed $346 million from the IMF to support relief, rehabilitation and rebuilding efforts.

Interim President Delcy Rodriguez said the funds would be used to accelerate reconstruction in the earthquake-hit regions and restore critical infrastructure.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva confirmed that the institution had facilitated Venezuela's access to its own reserve resources for urgent humanitarian needs through its reserve tranche mechanism.

Thousands Remain Displaced

Despite ongoing relief operations, nearly 20,000 people remain displaced after losing their homes in the earthquakes.

Many survivors are currently living in temporary shelters and overcrowded relief camps, where authorities continue to face challenges in providing adequate drinking water, sanitation facilities and essential healthcare services.

Humanitarian agencies have warned that rebuilding damaged communities is likely to take several months.

IMF Relations Resume

The latest funding reflects a significant shift in Venezuela's relationship with international financial institutions.

Venezuela holds approximately 3.568 billion Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) at the IMF, equivalent to around $5.1 billion.

Access to these resources had remained restricted for years due to international recognition disputes involving the country's political leadership.

Earlier this year, the IMF and the World Bank resumed engagement with Venezuela following major political developments that reshaped the country's relations with international institutions.

Reconstruction Challenges Ahead

The earthquakes caused extensive damage to homes, roads, public buildings and essential infrastructure across northern Venezuela, particularly in coastal communities.

Government agencies have prioritised restoring electricity, water supply and transportation networks while continuing to assess long-term reconstruction needs.

Officials say the newly released IMF funds will help finance emergency housing, infrastructure repair and humanitarian assistance as Venezuela begins recovering from one of the deadliest natural disasters in its recent history.

Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan has been appointed to a special advisory task force at the United States Federal Reserve, becoming the first former RBI chief to join such a policy panel at the US central bank. The move marks another milestone in the career of the internationally acclaimed economist, who rose to global prominence after accurately warning about the 2008 global financial crisis years before it unfolded.

Rajan has been selected by newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to serve on the Balance Sheet Policy Task Force, an independent advisory group tasked with reviewing the Fed’s balance sheet management and long-term policy framework. The panel will examine how the central bank manages its multi-trillion-dollar assets and recommend reforms to strengthen institutional functioning.

A Global Recognition

Rajan’s appointment reflects his long-standing reputation in international economics and central banking. He will work alongside leading economists and policy experts, while two other Indian-origin professionals—Raj Chetty and Asha Sharma—have also been named to separate Federal Reserve advisory groups.

The selection reinforces Rajan’s standing among the world’s most influential economic thinkers and adds another chapter to a career spanning academia, global financial institutions and public policy.

Roots in Bhopal

Born on February 3, 1963, in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, Rajan spent much of his childhood in different countries because of his father’s government service. He studied at Campion School, Bhopal, before completing his schooling at Delhi Public School, R.K. Puram in New Delhi.

His academic record has consistently reflected excellence. He graduated in Electrical Engineering from IIT Delhi in 1985, receiving the institute's Director's Gold Medal as the best all-round student. He then earned an MBA from IIM Ahmedabad, where he again topped his class and received a gold medal.

Rajan later completed his PhD in Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1991, focusing his research on banking and financial systems.

Career Across Global Institutions

Following his doctoral studies, Rajan joined the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he has served as a professor of finance for decades.

His international career includes teaching assignments at institutions such as the MIT Sloan School of Management, Kellogg School of Management, Stockholm School of Economics, and the Indian School of Business (ISB).

In 2003, at the age of 40, Rajan became the youngest-ever Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). After returning to India, he served as an economic adviser to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh before being appointed Chief Economic Adviser to the Ministry of Finance in 2012.

In September 2013, Rajan assumed office as the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, serving until September 2016. During his tenure, he also served as Vice-Chairman of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

The Prediction That Changed His Reputation

Rajan's international reputation was cemented by a speech delivered at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in 2005.

At a time when global financial markets were witnessing rapid expansion, Rajan warned that excessive risk-taking by financial institutions and complex financial products could trigger a severe global crisis. His assessment was initially dismissed by several economists and policymakers.

However, the 2007-08 global financial crisis, widely regarded as the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, unfolded largely along the lines he had anticipated. The accuracy of his warning established him as one of the world's foremost economists and significantly enhanced his global credibility.

Debate Over RBI Independence

Rajan's tenure as RBI Governor was marked by efforts to strengthen financial stability and control inflation through relatively higher interest rates. His emphasis on maintaining the central bank's independence occasionally led to differences with sections of the government over monetary policy priorities.

After completing his three-year term in 2016, Rajan chose not to seek a second term and returned to academic life in the United States.

A New Global Role

With his appointment to the Federal Reserve's advisory task force, Raghuram Rajan once again finds himself at the centre of global economic policymaking. His experience across academia, international finance and central banking is expected to contribute to discussions on the future direction of the world's largest central bank.

Pakistan Braces for 11% Inflation as Middle East Conflict Looms

New report warns of a potential currency slide to 298 against the dollar and a significant dent in GDP growth if oil prices breach the $120 mark.

The fragile stability of Pakistan’s economy is facing a fresh set of external threats as escalating tensions in West Asia and a volatile global energy market cast a long shadow over fiscal projections. According to the latest Pakistan Strategy Report released by Topline Securities and cited by local media, the country could see inflation surge back into double digits, potentially hitting 11% if regional instability drives crude oil prices upward.

The fallout of a prolonged conflict involving Iran could be particularly devastating for the Pakistani Rupee (PKR). Analysts suggest that the currency, which has shown relative steadiness recently, could slide to 298 against the US dollar by the 2027 fiscal year. This depreciation, coupled with imported inflation, threatens to undo the minor gains made under recent stabilization programs.

Oil price triggers and CPI spikes

The report highlights a direct correlation between international crude prices and domestic consumer pain. Under the current baseline, inflation is expected to hover between 9% and 10%. However, the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 remains a major concern for policymakers.

"Every $10 surge in oil prices is estimated to raise inflation by approximately 50 basis points," the report noted. If Brent crude crosses the $120 per barrel threshold, annual inflation is almost certain to touch 11%. Such a scenario would likely force the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to pivot from its current path and hike interest rates to mop up liquidity and defend the currency.

GDP growth outlook slashed

Economic activity is already showing signs of a slowdown. Given the mounting inflationary pressure, researchers have revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2027 downward. Previously pegged at 4.0%, the growth rate is now expected to struggle within the 2.5% to 3.0% range.

The industrial sector is poised to bear the brunt of this contraction. With energy costs rising and domestic demand weakening, industrial growth—which was previously anticipated to be healthy—could plummet from 4% to a dismal 1%. For the upcoming fiscal year 2026, the growth target remains slightly more optimistic at 3.5-4.0%, though this remains contingent on global commodity price stability.

Widening current account deficit

A major red flag raised in the report concerns the Current Account Deficit (CAD). If the federal government fails to implement stringent import controls, the CAD could balloon to over $8 billion in FY2027. This would place an immense strain on the country’s already lean foreign exchange reserves.

Furthermore, the fiscal deficit for FY2026 is projected at 4.0 to 4.5% of the GDP. These figures are significantly higher than the benchmarks discussed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), potentially complicating future tranches of financial assistance or the negotiation of new programs.

Energy dependence hits markets

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has reflected this unease, emerging as one of the more volatile markets globally. Investors remain jittery over Pakistan’s heavy reliance on energy imports, which account for nearly 85% of its requirements.

With petroleum imports for FY2026 estimated at $15 billion, the massive outflow of dollars continues to be the economy's Achilles' heel. This dependence led to a 15% decline in market performance during the first quarter of the year, as stakeholders reacted to the heightened risks in the Middle East supply chain.

Decline in remittances and exports

On the external front, the news remains grim. Remittances, the lifeblood of Pakistan's foreign exchange earnings, are expected to see a 3.5% dip. Specifically, funds sent home by workers in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries could drop by as much as 10% if regional instability disrupts employment or economic activity in those nations.

Export earnings are also projected to shrink by 4%. As the PKR prepares for a possible slide toward the 298 mark, the combined effect of reduced inflows and higher import bills suggests a difficult road ahead for the country's economic managers.