Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have intensified their selling spree in the Indian capital markets, pulling out a staggering ₹62,853 crore from equities in just the first 15 days of June.

Data released by the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) reveals that this latest round of selling has pushed the total foreign fund outflow from Indian equities to an unprecedented ₹2.87 lakh crore in 2026 so far. The aggressive offloading marks a sharp escalation compared to the entire calendar year of 2025, which saw a comparatively lower withdrawal of ₹1.66 lakh crore.

Global headwinds trigger risk aversion

Market observers point out that a combination of escalating geopolitical frictions, lingering concerns over global macroeconomic growth, and a persistently weak domestic currency have soured sentiment for overseas investors. The sustained exit highlights a broader rebalancing strategy among global fund managers.

"Investors are currently navigating an environment of extreme uncertainty regarding the future of interest rates of major central banks, geopolitical developments, and global growth," said Himanshu Srivastava, Principal Manager Research at Morningstar Investment Research India.

Premium valuations squeeze allocations

Apart from global triggers, India’s own market dynamics have prompted overseas fund managers to recalibrate their exposure. Analysts notes that Indian equities have been trading at a premium relative to several other emerging market peers, making the risk-reward ratio less attractive in a high-interest-rate environment.

This expensive valuation has forced FPIs to adopt a highly selective and cautious allocation strategy. Rather than broad-based buying, funds are moving capital toward developed markets and safer, fixed-income assets to shield portfolios from emerging market volatility.

Currency depreciation worsens outflows

The sharp depreciation of the domestic currency has further compounded the exodus. Despite consistent interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to check volatility and stabilize trading bands, the rupee has weakened by nearly 6% since the start of 2026, and around 10% over the past twelve months.

Rupee vs US Dollar Trajectory (Recent Trend)

[Mid-80s Level] -------- 6% YTD Decline --------> [Near 95 Level]

Moving from its previous mid-80s comfort zone, the currency has slipped to nearly 95 against the US dollar. This persistent slide erodes dollar-denominated returns for foreign funds, effectively forcing tactical exits from the cash market.

Selling pressure shows late moderation

While the aggregate numbers for June paint a grim picture, the pace of liquidation showed visible signs of deceleration toward the end of the second week. The tapering indicates that while risk-aversion remains the dominant theme, the absolute intensity of institutional selling might be hitting a temporary plateau.

On Friday, net FPI outflows in the cash market dropped to a modest ₹1,082 crore. This is a substantial reduction from the heavy multi-thousand-crore sessions witnessed earlier in the month, offering a brief breathing space for domestic institutional investors (DIIs) who have been absorbing the selling pressure.

Crude correction offers macro relief

On the macroeconomic front, a sharp correction in international oil benchmarks has provided a silver lining. Brent crude prices have slipped below the $87 per barrel mark, driven by recent diplomatic developments and expectations surrounding a potential peace framework between the US and Iran.

"For a large oil-importing country like India, this is major positive news," stated V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. He noted that the drop in energy costs comes at a crucial time, given that India is currently navigating a balance of payments deficit estimated at approximately $60 billion for FY27.

Policy interventions to support capital

Recognizing the vital role FPI flows play in managing the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and balancing external accounts, the government and the central bank have rolled out targeted administrative measures.

                 Key Policy Steps to Stabilize Capital Flows            

|  RBI to absorb hedging costs on FCNR deposits raised by commercial banks|

|  Expansion of the operational scope of the forex swap window           |

|  Easing of investment limits for NRIs and OCIs in the equity segment   |

|  Streamlining access to government securities via the FAR channel     |

Debt market provides counter-balance

Interestingly, while foreign capital is fleeing Indian equities, it is finding a steady home in the domestic debt segment. In contrast to the equity rout, foreign investors pumped over ₹13,200 crore into debt securities via the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) during the first half of June.

This fixed-income inflow has pushed total debt investments through the FAR channel to roughly ₹28,000 crore for the current calendar year, underscoring foreign institutional confidence in India's sovereign bond yields despite equity market turbulence.

Key triggers for the coming week

Going forward, the direction of foreign fund flows will likely be dictated by a busy global regulatory calendar. According to Pavitra Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research at Bajaj Broking, institutional desks will closely track four key variables:

• The progress of ongoing geopolitical negotiations between the US and Iran.

• The upcoming policy rate decision and commentary from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

• The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy stance and interest rate trajectory.

• Forward-looking policy guidance from other systemic central banks.

Sensex jumps 940 points, Nifty gains 1% as oil eases

Sensex rallies 940 points amid easing oil prices and improving global sentiment following US-Iran peace signals; Nifty ends above 24,300.

Indian equity markets staged a strong rebound on Wednesday, May 6, with benchmark indices closing firmly in the green after a volatile start to the week. The Sensex surged 940 points, while the Nifty 50 climbed 298.15 points, or about 1 per cent, to settle at 24,330.95, buoyed by cooling oil prices and positive global cues.

The rally comes a day after both indices had ended lower, reflecting cautious sentiment earlier in the week.

Oil cools, sentiment lifts

A key trigger for the upmove was a decline in global crude prices. Brent crude eased to around $108 per barrel amid indications of progress in diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran. Market participants tracked developments around the Strait of Hormuz closely, as any easing of tensions tends to reduce concerns over supply disruptions.

According to market watchers, softer oil prices typically support import-heavy economies like India by easing inflationary pressures and improving fiscal outlook.

Global cues supportive

Asian markets advanced sharply on Wednesday, setting the tone for domestic equities. South Korea’s KOSPI jumped nearly 6 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also posted gains.

Overnight, US markets had closed higher on May 5, with the Nasdaq rising over 1 per cent. The broader positive sentiment filtered into Indian markets during the session, particularly in the second half of the day.

Sectoral movement mixed

Gains were seen across several sectors, though the rally was not entirely broad-based. Aviation, financials, and select mid-cap stocks led the advance.

Among the top gainers on the Nifty 50 were IndiGo, Shriram Finance, TMPV, Advanced Enzymes, and Bajaj Finserv. These stocks posted gains ranging between 1.4 per cent and 2 per cent.

On the losing side, Larsen & Toubro emerged as the biggest laggard, declining nearly 2 per cent. Other stocks such as HUL, ITC, ONGC, and Reliance Industries also ended marginally lower, indicating some profit-booking in heavyweight counters.

FII selling continues

Despite Wednesday’s rally, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers in recent sessions. Data shows FIIs sold equities worth ₹8,834 crore over the past seven days.

In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued to provide support, with net buying of ₹10,854 crore during the same period. Over the past month, DIIs have been consistent buyers, helping cushion market volatility.

“Flows remain a key factor in the current market structure,” a market participant said, noting that sustained domestic inflows are offsetting foreign outflows to some extent.

Rupee shows recovery

The Indian rupee also showed signs of recovery, rising 19 paise from its previous all-time low to close at 94.99 against the US dollar. The appreciation followed easing crude prices and improved risk appetite in global markets.

Currency stability is often seen as a supportive factor for equities, particularly for sectors reliant on imports.

Rebound after weak close

Wednesday’s gains come after a weak session on Tuesday, when the Sensex had closed 251 points lower at 77,017. The Nifty had also slipped by 86 points to end near the 24,032 mark.

The sharp turnaround suggests that investor sentiment remains sensitive to global developments, especially geopolitical cues and commodity price movements.

What lies ahead

Market participants are likely to keep a close watch on further developments in US-Iran negotiations, as well as crude oil trends. Any sustained decline in oil prices could provide further upside to domestic equities.

Additionally, institutional flows and global market direction will remain key drivers in the near term. Analysts expect volatility to persist, though the underlying trend may stay positive if external conditions remain favourable.

For now, the Sensex rally of 940 points has provided a breather to investors, even as underlying risks continue to linger.