Stock Market Likely To Open Lower Amid Oil Surge, Global Weakness

Gift Nifty trends and weak global cues indicate a cautious start for Dalal Street as crude oil prices cross the $110-per-barrel mark amid rising Middle East tensions.

Indian equity markets are expected to begin Monday’s trade on a weak note, tracking losses across Asian markets and a sharp rise in crude oil prices. Early signals from Gift Nifty also pointed towards a negative opening for benchmark indices, with investors expected to remain cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the United States.

The pressure on global sentiment intensified after crude oil prices climbed above $110 per barrel in early trade. Market participants are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, especially after fresh remarks from US President Donald Trump regarding Iran’s stance on a proposed peace agreement.

Oil Prices Spike

Crude oil traded around the $111-per-barrel mark during the opening hours on Monday. Analysts said the rally in energy prices could increase inflationary concerns globally and impact import-heavy economies like India.

The latest surge came after Trump issued a strongly worded statement on his social media platform, warning Iran to move quickly on a peace proposal backed by Washington. The conflict, which began nearly 12 weeks ago, has continued to unsettle commodity and financial markets.

According to reports, the US had proposed a fresh agreement to Iran last week, but Tehran rejected the offer. The disagreement reportedly centers around Iran’s nuclear capabilities and broader regional security concerns.

Weak Global Signals

Asian markets traded mixed in early Monday deals, reflecting investor nervousness.

Japan’s Nikkei slipped nearly 1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell around 1.5%. South Korea’s Kospi, however, managed modest gains in volatile trade.

US markets had already ended lower on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 500 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also closed sharply in the red as investors reacted to geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy prices.

The negative global setup is expected to weigh on Indian equities at the opening bell.

Key Support Levels

Technical analysts believe the market remains range-bound but vulnerable to fresh selling pressure if crucial levels are breached.

According to Wealth View Analytics, immediate support for Nifty is placed around 23,466, followed by 23,345 and 23,320. Stronger downside support zones are seen near 22,858 and 22,558.

Support levels are considered areas where buying interest generally emerges, preventing deeper declines in the short term.

On the upside, resistance is likely around 23,812 and 23,872, while stronger hurdles remain near 24,140 and 24,450.

Analysts See Volatility

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the Sensex is currently hovering around the 75,200–75,300 range, indicating a gradual and cautious recovery attempt despite continued global uncertainty.

He noted that immediate resistance for the index lies between 75,600 and 76,000, while stronger support is visible around 74,500–74,200. According to him, the next decisive market direction may emerge only after a clear breakout from the current range.

Meanwhile, Akash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said Nifty’s immediate resistance remains near 24,000 and 24,250.

If the market declines further, support is expected around 23,250 and 23,000. He added that a breach below the 23,000 mark could trigger stronger selling pressure in the near term.

Traders, analysts said, are likely to maintain a cautious approach amid heightened volatility and may continue using strict stop-loss strategies.

Foreign Investors Remain Sellers

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have continued to remain net sellers in Indian equities over the past month.

Data showed FIIs/FPI investors sold shares worth over ₹55,000 crore during the last 30 sessions, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, helping cushion the market from sharper declines.

In the latest session, FIIs were marginal buyers, but broader selling trends continue to influence market sentiment.

Friday’s Market Close

Benchmark indices had already ended lower in the previous session. The Sensex closed nearly 160 points down on Friday as investors booked profits in select heavyweight stocks ahead of the weekend.

Market participants will now watch global crude oil movements, developments in the Middle East, and foreign investment flows closely through the week, as these factors are expected to dictate the next move for Indian equities and the broader stock market outlook.