The United Nations has issued a strong alert over the likely return of El Niño, with an 80 per cent probability of the climate pattern developing before September. The development has raised fresh concerns in India about a potentially deficient southwest monsoon and drought-like conditions in several parts of the country.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is a 90 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will persist through November. Most models suggest the event could be at least moderate in strength, and some experts believe it may rank among the stronger episodes in recent decades.

Global temperatures set to rise further

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the forecast as “pouring fuel on the fire of a warming world.” He urged governments to prepare for intensified extreme weather events, including heatwaves, floods, and droughts.

The WMO has also forecast above-average temperatures across most regions in the coming months. The previous El Niño of 2023-24 was among the five strongest on record and contributed to record global heat in 2024.

How El Niño disrupts Indian monsoon

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm. This alters global atmospheric circulation, particularly the Walker Circulation, often weakening the flow of moisture towards the Indian subcontinent.

In India, El Niño years are historically linked to below-normal rainfall, delayed monsoon onset, and uneven distribution. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already projected that the country may receive only about 92 per cent of normal rainfall this season. While some parts of the Northeast, Northwest, and South may fare better, large swathes of central and western India could see deficits.

 Farming and rural economy at risk

With over half of India’s farmland still dependent on monsoon rains, even a modest shortfall can have serious consequences. Lower crop output, especially in rain-fed regions, could hit farmer incomes and weaken rural demand. Kharif sowing, which begins in June-July, remains particularly vulnerable.

Experts warn that prolonged dry spells during the second half of the monsoon (July-September) could worsen water shortages in reservoirs and rivers.

 Heatwaves likely to intensify

India is already seeing longer and more severe heatwaves due to climate change. El Niño conditions often amplify this trend. Central and northwestern states may face extended periods of extreme heat in the coming months.

A recent Lancet study highlighted the scale of the problem. Heat exposure in 2024 alone led to the loss of an estimated 247 billion potential labour hours in India, mostly in agriculture and construction, causing economic losses of around $194 billion. Informal workers, daily wagers, and those in outdoor occupations remain the worst affected.

 Food security and inflation concerns

Global food supplies are already under pressure. A strong El Niño could further disrupt production in key regions, pushing up prices. In India, any significant shortfall in domestic output of rice, pulses, or oilseeds may increase food inflation, affecting households and government subsidy programmes.

Officials are closely monitoring reservoir levels and groundwater situations. Some states have begun early planning for contingency measures, including cloud seeding in select areas and promotion of drought-resistant crop varieties.

 Background and past lessons

India has faced notable El Niño impacts in the past, including the severe drought years of 2002, 2009, and 2015-16. Each episode brought deficient rainfall and tested the country’s preparedness.

However, improved forecasting, better irrigation coverage in some states, and expanded crop insurance have helped reduce vulnerability over the years. This time, the challenge is compounded by the long-term effects of climate change.

 What lies ahead

The IMD is expected to release its updated monsoon forecast in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the government may accelerate preparations for water management and contingency planning at the state level.

As the world heads into another period of climatic uncertainty, the UN warning serves as a timely reminder of the increasing frequency and intensity of such events. For India, the focus remains on minimising the impact on its 1.4 billion people, particularly those dependent on agriculture and vulnerable to extreme heat.

Temperatures cross 44°C in Madhya Pradesh's Rewa district, with no immediate relief in sight for at least three more days

The second day of Nautapa turned out to be a trial by fire for Rewa residents on Tuesday, as the mercury touched 44 degrees Celsius by early afternoon. Streets that are usually bustling with activity wore a deserted look, with only the occasional auto-rickshaw braving the heat.

What has officials particularly worried is the overnight temperature. The minimum settled around 28 to 29 degrees, offering little window for the human body to recover from daytime exposure.

Heat Already Building Before Nautapa

Weather data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows the current spell didn't arrive suddenly. Even before the nine-day Nautapa period formally began, Rewa was already simmering. On May 23, maximum temperature touched nearly 45 degrees. The following two days recorded readings between 43 and 44 degrees.

Local authorities confirmed that the district hasn't seen nighttime temperatures drop significantly for nearly a week now, a pattern that typically precedes more severe heatwave conditions.

Three More Days of Discomfort

If IMD's city forecast holds, residents shouldn't expect any major relief soon. For May 26, the maximum is expected to hover between 43 and 44 degrees. May 27 could touch 44 degrees again, while May 28 will likely see similar readings.

Night temperatures are projected to stay within 28 to 29 degrees. This means even after sunset, the air retains enough heat to make sleeping difficult without artificial cooling.

'Feels Like Fire Raining'

Ground-level responses paint a grim picture. Rajesh Patel, a resident of Gudh area, told local reporters that stepping out past noon has become nearly impossible. "It feels like fire raining down," he said.

Sunita Mishra, another resident, pointed to the hot winds — locally called 'loo' — that continue well past sunset. "Even at night, there's no peace. These hot winds don't stop," she said.

Initial reports from community health centres in the district have not indicated major heat-related hospitalisations yet, but officials are bracing for a possible rise in cases over the next 48 hours.

Heatwave-Like Conditions Likely to Persist

The IMD has indicated that Rewa may continue to experience heatwave-like conditions for the next few days. A brief advisory issued through district administration channels urged people to avoid direct sunlight during afternoon hours, drink adequate water even if not feeling thirsty, and step out only when absolutely necessary.

Vulnerable groups — the elderly, young children, and those with pre-existing health conditions — have been advised to remain indoors between 11 am and 4 pm.

For now, Rewa waits. And the heat shows no signs of letting up.

Chhattisgarh Braces for Five-Day Heat Wave as Storm Damage Mounts Across State

Heat advisory issued for central districts; southern regions face thunderstorm risk as temperatures climb

Heat wave warning extended across central belt

Chhattisgarh is set to experience a prolonged spell of intense heat over the next five days, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issuing a formal heat wave alert for the state's central districts. Officials have cautioned residents to take precautions as maximum temperatures are expected to rise by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius over the coming four days.

The weather office has also flagged the possibility of thunderstorms, gusty winds, and light rainfall across select pockets of southern Chhattisgarh, signalling a mixed pattern even as the heat intensifies across most of the state.

Storm damage reported in Durg-Bhilai region

The evening of May 19 saw severe weather conditions grip parts of the state. In Durg-Bhilai, a thunderstorm accompanied by strong winds caused significant damage, with a high-voltage electricity pole collapsing onto a parked vehicle. The incident underscored the volatile conditions that preceded the broader heat advisory.

Raigarh district also experienced heavy winds and light showers during evening hours, while Raipur saw cloud cover develop by late afternoon, providing temporary relief from the oppressive heat. The scattered convective activity across these zones marks the tail end of pre-monsoon instability before sustained heat takes over.

Temperature records: Bilaspur soars, Ambika region coolest

Latest data from the IMD shows Bilaspur recording the state's highest maximum temperature at 43.4 degrees Celsius, making it the hottest district in Chhattisgarh. By contrast, Ambikapur logged the lowest minimum temperature at 25.7 degrees Celsius.

Raipur, the state capital, is expected to touch around 43 degrees Celsius on Tuesday, with the minimum hovering near 30 degrees under clear sky conditions. Narayanpur district's Nangur region recorded 30 mm of rainfall, the only significant precipitation observed during the past 24 hours.

What to expect: Next 48 hours remain dry

The meteorological office has forecast largely dry conditions across Chhattisgarh for the next two days. However, heat wave effects are likely to persist in several parts, with officials advising people to remain hydrated and avoid unnecessary outdoor activity during peak afternoon hours.

The central and northern districts face the brunt of the heat advisory, while southern pockets retain a marginal chance of scattered thunderstorm activity. Grid operators have been alerted to potential strain on the power distribution system due to increased cooling demand.

Monsoon tracking: Southwest arrival by late May

Scientists tracking the southwest monsoon indicate Kerala could see the system's arrival around May 26, with a possible window of four days either way. This timing suggests relief for Chhattisgarh may come in early June, though exact progression remains subject to atmospheric dynamics.

Until monsoon onset, the state must prepare for sustained heat. Health authorities have ramped up heat-related illness awareness campaigns, particularly targeting vulnerable populations and outdoor workers.

Key Health Advisories for Summer Months

Officials have released parallel guidance on maintaining fitness routines during extreme heat, managing hydration protocols, and recognising heat edema symptoms—a condition where limbs swell due to heat-induced changes in blood vessel circulation and fluid balance.

The state health department emphasised avoiding common summer mistakes such as consuming ice-cold water, inadequate hydration, venturing outdoors unprepared, and poor hygiene practices that collectively increase risk of dehydration, fatigue, skin complications, and digestive disorders.

Heat edema, often dismissed as trivial, warrants medical attention if accompanied by persistent swelling. The condition reflects the body's thermoregulation mechanisms under thermal stress.

Looking ahead

As Chhattisgarh navigates the extended heat spell, residents are urged to follow basic precautions: drink ample water, wear light clothing, apply sunscreen, and seek shade during 11 AM to 4 PM hours. Industries and construction sites have been asked to adjust work schedules to minimise heat exposure.

The next forecast update is expected by evening May 20.