Gold sales slump after PM Modi appeal; demand hit but experts see long-term resilience

Gold sales fall across cities after Modi asked citizens to avoid non-essential purchases; experts warn short-term dip, expect prices to stay firm

Jewellery shops from Guwahati to Bengaluru reported sharp declines in footfall and transactions this week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to refrain from non-essential gold purchases for a year to conserve foreign exchange, industry officials and local reports said.

Immediate drop
Retailers and trade bodies described an abrupt slowdown in discretionary buying within days of the appeal made on 10 May. “Walk-ins for discretionary purchases and impulse buys have dropped noticeably,” said a sales manager at a Delhi showroom who spoke on condition of anonymity. State-level reports — including from Assam and Karnataka — put declines anywhere between 30% and as high as 80% in the first 10 days following the appeal.

Consumer sentiment shifts
A LocalCircles poll cited by industry sources found roughly six in 10 prospective buyers said they would avoid buying gold for a year following the prime minister’s request. Jewellers across markets said customers are more price-sensitive and cautious, taking longer to finalise purchases and asking more about buyback and exchange options.

“We are seeing greater interest in lightweight pieces and upgrade schemes,” Raghav Dhir, director at Dhirsons Jewellers, told reporters. “But jewellery demand is tied to weddings, festivals and gifting, so it won’t vanish overnight.”

Price movement and policy
Gold prices have not eased consumer pressure. The India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) placed the 24K gold rate at ₹1,58,350 per 10 grams on 22 May, up from about ₹1,51,140 on 8 May, days before the appeal and the subsequent temporary import duty increase from 6% to 15%. Analysts say higher import duty and global volatility have kept domestic prices elevated, reducing the scope for immediate relief for buyers.

Why the appeal was made
Officials say the request aimed to curb gold imports — India sources over 90% of its bullion needs from abroad — and preserve forex reserves amid high crude oil bills caused by tensions in West Asia. Annual imports typically exceed 800 tonnes, and the government’s plea was framed as a temporary conservation measure to ease pressure on the current account.

Expert outlook
Industry and market experts diverge on how deep and how long the slowdown will be. Several analysts expect only a temporary dip in jewellery demand, given the cultural role of gold in India.

“Gold and silver are not just price products; much demand comes from culture and long-term savings. Demand may soften, but it won’t disappear,” Navy Vijay Ramavat, managing director of Indira Securities, said.

Bullish case
A number of market participants pointed to four factors likely to keep a floor under prices: ongoing geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, inflation concerns and volatility in global markets. Some jewellers and brokers forecast gold could rise to between ₹1,90,000 and ₹2,10,000 per 10 grams by the end of 2026, citing sustained central-bank accumulation and safe-haven flows.

More cautious views
Not everyone is similarly optimistic. Hemant Sood of Findoc Investmart outlined a more conservative scenario, suggesting domestic 24K rates could trade in a range of ₹1,28,000–₹1,45,000 by December 2026 depending on global rates and macro moves.

Ground-level impact
At street-level showrooms in Bengaluru and Guwahati, owners said daily sales volumes have fallen and staff are offering discounts or flexible payment schemes to close deals. Wedding planners in Delhi reported some clients postponing ornament purchases or shifting budgets toward other items such as venue or catering.

What’s next
For now, jewellers are watching wedding season bookings and festival demand closely. “If weddings proceed as planned and gold prices stabilise, we expect some recovery,” a senior trade official said. The government has not signalled any binding ban; the appeal remains voluntary, leaving retailers and buyers to balance cultural habits against a national economic ask.