Flood conditions remain serious across parts of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, with swollen rivers inundating villages, homes and public infrastructure. More than 40 lakh people have been affected by floods in Bihar, while Uttar Pradesh is dealing with flooding across 26 districts.

At the same time, rainfall activity has eased in parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, although the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast indicates that the weather pattern could change again over the next few days.

Bihar Flood Situation Remains Critical

Bihar remains one of the worst-affected states, with flooding reported across 14 districts. According to the latest figures cited in reports from the state, more than 40 lakh people have been affected.

The situation has been particularly difficult in districts along the Ganga and other major rivers. Patna, Bhojpur, Saran, Vaishali, Bhagalpur and Begusarai are among the areas facing significant disruption.

The water situation has shown some signs of improvement at several locations. The Ganga has started receding at a number of points, although river levels remain above danger marks in several stretches. The flood response has been strengthened with rescue teams and boats deployed in vulnerable areas. 

Bhagalpur University Hit by Floodwater

Bhagalpur has emerged as one of the major trouble spots. Floodwater from the Ganga has entered the Tilka Manjhi Bhagalpur University campus, forcing teachers and students in affected areas to use boats for movement.

The flooding has also disrupted normal life in villages, where residents in several locations are relying on boats to move between inundated settlements and safer areas.

The Bihar Meteorological Centre has maintained a heavy-rain warning for September 10, followed by thunderstorm and lightning activity on September 11–13. This means that even where water levels have begun falling, authorities remain alert to the possibility of fresh rainfall affecting the flood situation. 

UP: 26 Districts Under Flood Impact

Uttar Pradesh is also facing widespread flooding, with around four lakh people affected across 26 districts, according to the latest figures in the supplied situation report.

Several rivers remain swollen after prolonged rainfall. In Barabanki, around a dozen houses were reported submerged by the rising waters of the Saryu. In Bareilly, floodwater reached an old temple located along the Ramganga.

Farrukhabad has also faced severe river erosion, with reports that several houses have been swept away by the Ganga in recent days. In Gonda, the rising Ghaghra has reportedly affected around 30 villages and left thousands of residents surrounded by floodwater.

However, the rainfall outlook for Uttar Pradesh is beginning to moderate. The latest IMD warning issued on September 10 shows no heavy-rain warning for West UP over the coming days, while East UP has only a thunderstorm and lightning warning for September 10. 

The Regional Meteorological Centre has also said that monsoon activity is likely to remain subdued over most parts of the state for the next few days, although isolated showers may continue in eastern districts. Another spell of rain could develop from Saturday as a fresh low-pressure system forms over the Bay of Bengal. 

Madhya Pradesh: Rain Eases, But Fresh Spell Possible

Madhya Pradesh has seen a temporary reduction in intense rainfall activity. The supplied report said that widespread heavy rain had eased, with many areas experiencing brighter weather.

However, the latest IMD forecast suggests that the break may not last across the entire state. The Bhopal Meteorological Centre has forecast heavy rain potential in West MP on September 12–13, while East MP has a heavy-rain warning for September 11 along with thunderstorm and lightning activity. 

This makes the situation different from a complete end to the monsoon spell. Rainfall may remain subdued in the immediate term in some districts before increasing again in parts of the state.

Rajasthan Set for Another Rain Spell

Rajasthan has also experienced a relatively dry phase, with temperatures rising above 35°C in several cities.

The latest IMD warning indicates no significant warning for Rajasthan on September 10, but thunderstorm and lightning activity is forecast in East Rajasthan from September 11 and in both East and West Rajasthan from September 12 onward. 

This suggests that the next phase of rainfall is likely to develop gradually rather than as an immediate statewide heavy-rain event.

Weather Outlook: Flood Risk Persists Despite Rain Breaks

The developing weather pattern highlights an important feature of the current monsoon: a reduction in rainfall in one region does not necessarily mean that flood conditions will disappear immediately.

In Bihar, rivers remain elevated and millions of people are still affected even as water levels fall at some locations. In Uttar Pradesh, the immediate rain threat is easing in several areas, but existing floodwater and river erosion continue to pose risks.

Meanwhile, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan could see renewed rainfall activity over the coming days. The IMD has also warned of heavy rainfall in several other parts of the country, particularly eastern and northeastern regions, as weather systems remain active.

For flood-affected communities, the key concern remains the combination of river levels, fresh rainfall and the condition of roads, embankments and low-lying settlements.

The southwest monsoon has remained stuck for 11 days, leaving 19 states awaiting widespread rainfall as multiple weather systems and emerging El Niño signals slow its progress.

The southwest monsoon has lost momentum after making rapid progress across large parts of the country earlier this month, leaving several states waiting for sustained rainfall. Weather officials say a combination of five active atmospheric systems is currently affecting monsoon circulation, resulting in a significant slowdown and widening rainfall deficits across India.

The monsoon, which reached Telangana on June 8, has remained virtually stationary since then. Over the past 11 days, it has failed to advance further into several regions, raising concerns among farmers and state administrations as temperatures continue to remain high in many areas.

According to rainfall data between June 1 and June 18, India has recorded 38% below-normal precipitation. Maharashtra and Gujarat have emerged among the worst-affected states, reporting rainfall deficits of around 78% and 79%, respectively.

Moisture Flow Weakens

Meteorologists attribute the slowdown to a rare situation where multiple weather systems are operating simultaneously and interfering with the normal monsoon pattern.

Moisture-bearing winds from the Arabian Sea have weakened, while cloud bands moving northward from southern India have failed to advance as expected. These disruptions have prevented the monsoon current from strengthening over central and northern parts of the country.

As a result, widespread monsoon rainfall remains absent across several regions despite favourable calendar dates for its arrival.

Heat Persists Despite Showers

Pre-monsoon activity continues in parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Chhattisgarh. However, these scattered showers have not been enough to bring lasting relief from the heat.

Several locations across seven states recorded temperatures above 40°C on Wednesday. Banda in Uttar Pradesh emerged as the hottest place in the country at 43.2°C.

Temperatures also crossed 42°C in parts of Odisha and Maharashtra, while districts in Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh continued to experience intense daytime heat.

The combination of delayed monsoon rainfall and persistent high temperatures has increased discomfort levels, particularly in rural areas dependent on early-season agricultural activity.

El Niño Concerns Return

Adding to concerns, recent observations from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggest early signs of developing El Niño conditions.

According to the report, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a critical weather belt that helps draw moisture towards the Indian subcontinent, has not shifted northward at its usual pace. The delayed movement has contributed to the sluggish advance of the monsoon.

Satellite imagery indicates active thunderstorm development over eastern India, while cloud cover remains comparatively weak across Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and large parts of western India.

Experts caution that if El Niño conditions strengthen, rainfall distribution during the season could become uneven, increasing the likelihood of prolonged dry spells in some regions.

Heavy Rain In North Bengal

While many states await monsoon rains, parts of West Bengal have witnessed the opposite situation.

Heavy rainfall in Darjeeling district led to the collapse of a bridge over the swollen Balason River, disrupting road connectivity between Siliguri and the Mirik subdivision. North Bengal districts including Darjeeling, Kalimpong and Jalpaiguri have received intense rainfall over the past two days following the monsoon's arrival in the state on June 9.

Authorities are monitoring vulnerable areas as rain-related incidents continue to be reported.

Relief Expected Soon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that conditions may improve over the next four to five days.

Officials say the current jet stream pattern, which has been restricting monsoon movement, is expected to weaken gradually. This could allow the monsoon to regain strength and advance into Maharashtra, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and adjoining regions.

Rainfall activity is also expected to increase across eastern India, the Northeast and parts of central India over the next few days.

States Remain On Alert

Several states have already issued weather advisories. Rajasthan has placed more than 30 districts under thunderstorm and rainfall alerts, while Bihar remains under an orange alert for strong winds and rain. Uttarakhand has warned Char Dham pilgrims and residents in vulnerable districts to remain cautious amid forecasts of fresh showers.

In Madhya Pradesh, where rainfall remains 39% below normal, the monsoon is now expected to arrive around June 25, nearly 10 days later than its usual schedule.

With the sowing season approaching in many regions, the progress of the monsoon over the coming week will be closely watched by farmers, policymakers and weather experts alike.

Severe heatwave continues across Rajasthan and Central India, but a fresh Western Disturbance is set to trigger widespread pre-monsoon showers and sharp drop in mercury

Relentless heatwave conditions that have pushed northern and central India into a virtual furnace are expected to break by Friday. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast widespread pre-monsoon rainfall activity across 15 states between May 29 and June 5, bringing a much-needed respite from the prolonged, grueling summer.

The change in weather comes on the heels of record-shattering temperatures. On Wednesday, Sri Ganganagar in Rajasthan emerged as the hottest location nationwide, registering a blistering maximum temperature of 48.2°C. Local authorities across northern states have been struggling to manage the public health fallout, with massive water shortages reported in parts of Delhi and municipalities using smog guns to spray water onto roads in Jaipur to lower ground radiation.

Massive dust storms and orange alerts

A fresh Western Disturbance moving across the western Himalayan region is expected to alter the atmospheric dynamics significantly. The IMD has already placed 32 districts of Bihar under an orange alert, predicting severe thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds reaching speeds up to 60 kmph.

In Rajasthan, where cities like Bikaner and Jaisalmer crossed the 46°C mark on Wednesday, the regional meteorological center has issued rain and thunderstorm warnings for 11 districts, including the capital city of Jaipur. Ground-level cues indicate a rapid shifting of wind patterns from hot, desert-fueled northwesterlies to moisture-laden easterlies, which will likely trigger heavy dust storms across Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh by Thursday evening.

Suspected heatwave deaths trigger alarm

The sheer intensity of this late-May heatwave has turned fatal in parts of Central India. In Maharashtra’s Nagpur, where the mercury touched 46°C earlier this week, hospital mortuaries have seen a sudden influx of bodies. Over the last three days, at least 16 bodies—mostly unidentified or homeless individuals—were recovered from railway station platforms, open roadsides, and beneath flyovers.

Civic officials and railway police suspect severe heatstroke and dehydration as the primary causes, though formal medical audits are ongoing. “Special cooling wards have been activated at government hospitals for hyperpyrexia treatment, and we are working to move vulnerable populations to shelter homes,” a senior civic official from the Nagpur Municipal Corporation said.

Monsoon delay intensifies pre-monsoon systems

The current escalation of the pre-monsoon weather systems is partly linked to the delayed arrival of the southwest monsoon over the mainland. While the IMD had initially expected the monsoon to hit the Kerala coast by May 26, weak moisture currents and an unstable cyclonic circulation over the south-central Arabian Sea slowed its progress.

According to data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), atmospheric indicators now point to an abrupt surge in moisture over South India, East India, and the Bay of Bengal. This atmospheric build-up is acting as fuel for the severe convective storms expected to sweep through central and northern plains over the coming weekend.

Significant drop in mercury by weekend

The weather timeline for May 29 indicates that while western pockets of Rajasthan will continue to face isolated heatwave pockets, vast swathes of Punjab, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh will see temperatures plunge by 3°C to 6°C.

By May 30, the cooling effect will extend to the hill states. Both Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are slated to receive intense hailstorms and squalls, causing a sharp dip in down-valley temperatures. Local administrations in the high-altitude tourist hubs have already issued advisories warning travelers of localized disruptions due to sudden lightning strikes and strong winds.