Madhya Pradesh is witnessing a significant rainfall deficit after nearly a week of subdued monsoon activity, with 35 districts reporting below-normal rainfall and several eastern regions facing dry conditions. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the state has received 241.8 mm of rainfall so far this monsoon season, around 11% below the normal average of 270.3 mm.

The rainfall shortfall has been particularly severe across eastern Madhya Pradesh, including the Jabalpur, Rewa, Sagar and Shahdol divisions, where precipitation is reported to be 24% below normal. In contrast, western districts such as Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, Narmadapuram and the Gwalior-Chambal region have recorded rainfall close to or slightly above seasonal averages.

New Weather Systems May Revive Monsoon

Meteorologists expect monsoon conditions to improve from July 19, with a fresh Western Disturbance forecast to become active over northwest India. Simultaneously, a developing weather system over the Bay of Bengal, supported by an active cyclonic circulation, is expected to strengthen rainfall activity across Madhya Pradesh during the second half of July.

According to IMD, the interaction of these systems could trigger a fresh spell of moderate to heavy rainfall across large parts of the state.

Light Rain Forecast for Several Districts Today

For Thursday, the weather department has forecast light rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms in several districts, including Indore, Jhabua, Alirajpur, Dhar, Burhanpur, Barwani, Khandwa, Khargone, Narmadapuram, Betul, Harda, Bhind, Datia, Jabalpur, Katni, Narsinghpur, Chhindwara, Pandhurna, Seoni, Balaghat, Mandla, Dindori, Rewa, Satna, Sidhi, Singrauli, Mauganj, Maihar, Shahdol, Umaria, Anuppur, Panna, Damoh, Chhatarpur, Tikamgarh and Niwari.

Meanwhile, districts including Morena, Gwalior, Sheopur, Shivpuri, Guna, Ashoknagar, Vidisha, Sagar, Raisen, Bhopal, Sehore, Rajgarh, Shajapur, Dewas, Ujjain, Agar Malwa, Ratlam, Neemuch and Mandsaur are likely to experience warm and humid weather with limited rainfall activity.

Eastern Region Remains a Concern

Weather expert Shailendra Kumar Nayak said that while the overall monsoon situation across Madhya Pradesh remains satisfactory, the persistent rainfall deficit in eastern districts has become a matter of concern for agriculture and water resources.

He noted that the movement and intensity of the upcoming low-pressure system would determine how quickly monsoon activity regains momentum across the state. If weather conditions remain favourable, most regions of Madhya Pradesh could witness a stronger phase of rainfall during the second fortnight of July.

July Crucial for Seasonal Rainfall

July traditionally contributes nearly 40% of Madhya Pradesh's annual monsoon rainfall, making the current slowdown significant. The state's average annual rainfall stands at 37.3 inches, with major cities such as Bhopal, Indore, Jabalpur and Gwalior generally receiving between 38 and 39 inches during the season.

Among districts, Dewas has emerged as the state's wettest so far, recording rainfall 102% above normal, while Alirajpur has received only around 2.25 inches, marking a 74% rainfall deficit.

Historically, cities such as Jabalpur, Bhopal and Indore receive substantial rainfall during July, and meteorologists believe the upcoming weather systems could help narrow the current deficit if widespread showers materialise in the coming days.

Despite the current slowdown, meteorologists remain optimistic that conditions could become favorable for the monsoon to advance again within the next 4–5 days, with progress likely resuming between June 21 and June 23.

Third Consecutive Year of June Slowdown

The western branch of the monsoon has faced interruptions in recent years as well. In 2024, its advance slowed for about 8–9 days during the second week of June. In 2025, it remained nearly stationary along the Maharashtra coast for almost three weeks.

Weather experts note that such pauses do not necessarily indicate a weak monsoon season. Instead, rainfall often becomes concentrated into fewer days, resulting in more intense downpours when weather systems become active.

Why Has the Monsoon Stalled?

Meteorologists attribute the slowdown primarily to the delayed activation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a crucial weather system that normally shifts northward by mid-June and helps draw moisture-laden winds toward India.

Satellite observations from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also suggest that El Niño conditions are beginning to develop, which can lead to prolonged dry spells and uneven rainfall distribution across the country.

While thunderstorm activity remains active over eastern India, cloud cover has been relatively weak across Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and parts of western India, slowing the monsoon's progress.

Monsoon Progress So Far

After arriving in Kerala on June 4, the southwest monsoon advanced rapidly through 19 states within 14 days. However, it has remained stalled near Bhadrachalam in Telangana for the past week.

As a result, monsoon rains have been delayed in several regions, including Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, and parts of central India, where farmers are eagerly awaiting widespread rainfall for sowing activities.

Pre-Monsoon Activity Continues

Even as the monsoon remains stalled, pre-monsoon showers have been reported in several states, including:

• Madhya Pradesh
• Uttar Pradesh
• Bihar
• Rajasthan
• Himachal Pradesh
• Chhattisgarh

Heavy rainfall affected parts of Bihar on Wednesday, while strong winds caused localized damage in Rajasthan, including uprooted trees and collapsed structures in Jaipur and Udaipur.

Heatwave Conditions Persist

The delayed monsoon has allowed heatwave conditions to continue across large parts of the country. Temperatures exceeded 40°C in several cities across:

• Uttar Pradesh
• Madhya Pradesh
• Bihar
• Jharkhand
• Odisha
• Telangana
• Andhra Pradesh
• Maharashtra

The highest temperature recorded in the country was 45°C in Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh.

Rainfall Forecast

June 19

• Rain likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and Sikkim.
• Heavy rainfall expected in parts of Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karnataka.
• Thunderstorms and gusty winds likely in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

June 20

• Heavy rain expected in Sikkim, North Bengal, Assam and Meghalaya.
• Thunderstorms with strong winds likely in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
• Rainfall activity may continue in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

When Will the Monsoon Advance Again?

According to IMD, the current pause is linked to upper-atmospheric jet stream patterns, which are influencing the movement of monsoon clouds. Once these fast-moving winds weaken, monsoon currents are expected to strengthen and advance into Maharashtra, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and adjoining regions.

Weather experts expect the next significant phase of monsoon advancement to begin by the third week of June, bringing relief from intense heat and improving conditions for agriculture across much of India.

Heavy pre-monsoon activity disrupted normal life across several states on Friday, with hailstorms in Rajasthan, 100 kmph winds in Uttar Pradesh, and fresh rain alerts issued in more than 15 states. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also revised its monsoon rainfall forecast downward, raising concerns over a weaker rainy season this year.

Storms Replace Heat

Instead of the usual intense ‘Nautapa’ heatwave conditions, large parts of north and central India witnessed thunderstorms, rain and gusty winds since Thursday night. In Uttar Pradesh, strong winds and rain swept through Lucknow, Prayagraj, Jhansi and Chandauli early Friday morning.

Initial reports indicate wind speeds touched nearly 100 kmph in some districts. In Hamirpur, an under-construction bridge reportedly collapsed during the storm, killing six people. Local authorities said rescue teams were deployed soon after the incident.

The IMD has issued storm alerts for all 75 districts of Uttar Pradesh. Saharanpur also reported hailstorm activity, while in Jhansi, a heavy advertising structure was uprooted due to strong winds.

Hail During Nautapa

Rajasthan, which has been battling severe heat over the past week, saw sudden weather changes in several districts. Sri Ganganagar received hail late Thursday evening despite recording a maximum temperature of 47.1 degrees Celsius.

The weather department has issued alerts for rain and thunderstorms in at least 12 districts. Jaipur recorded its hottest day of the season on Thursday, with temperatures crossing 45 degrees Celsius, though officials expect some relief over the weekend.

In Uttarakhand’s Pithoragarh, residents reported unusually large hailstones, some described as egg-sized. Videos from the area showed damaged plastic furniture and slippery roads after the storm.

IMD Cuts Rainfall Forecast

The IMD on Friday said India may receive below-normal rainfall during the 2026 monsoon season. According to officials, the estimated seasonal rainfall has now been reduced to around 78 cm, down from the earlier forecast of 80 cm issued last month.

The country’s long-period average rainfall stands at 87 cm based on data from 1971 to 2020. IMD Deputy Director General Dr M. Mohapatra said the rainfall this year could remain around 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), slightly lower than previous estimates.

If the projection holds, this would be among the weakest monsoon performances since 2018.

Monsoon Arrival Delayed

The southwest monsoon, meanwhile, remains stalled near the Kerala coast. The IMD had earlier forecast an early onset around May 26, nearly five days ahead of schedule, but the system has shown little movement over the past several days.

Private weather agency Skymet now expects the monsoon to reach Kerala between June 3 and June 4. According to weather experts, atmospheric conditions over the Arabian Sea are currently slowing further advancement.

The monsoon had entered the Andaman region around May 16, initially indicating a faster progression.

Damage Across States

Odisha reported three deaths linked to lightning strikes and storm-related incidents over the last 24 hours. Officials said more than 250 homes were damaged in districts including Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Rourkela and Angul. Trees and electric poles were uprooted in several areas.

In Chhattisgarh, strong winds uprooted trees in Raigarh and Sukma, while parts of Madhya Pradesh, including Damoh, witnessed rain and hail. Bengaluru also saw traffic disruptions after trees collapsed during an evening storm on Thursday.

Delhi-NCR and nearby Noida experienced traffic snarls after sudden rainfall during peak hours.

Heatwave Still Persists

Despite widespread rain activity, heatwave conditions continue in pockets of Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and coastal states. The IMD has issued orange alerts for severe heat in districts such as Morena, Sheopur, Tikamgarh and Chhatarpur in Madhya Pradesh.

Meteorologists said temperatures could gradually dip over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh over the next two days as thunderstorm activity intensifies.

For now, the pre-monsoon rain alert remains active across much of north, central and eastern India, with officials advising people to remain cautious during thunderstorms and strong wind activity.