A prolonged dry spell in Indonesia has caused water levels in the Karian Reservoir in Banten province to fall sharply, revealing the remains of a village that had been submerged for years after the construction of the dam.

The resurfacing of Somang village, including old houses, a mosque and other structures, has offered a striking glimpse of a settlement that disappeared beneath the reservoir after the Karian Dam project was developed. The development comes amid unusually dry conditions in Indonesia, with the country's weather agency warning of below-normal rainfall across large parts of the country.

Village Reappears as Water Recedes

Somang was once a populated village in Banten before the area was submerged as part of the Karian Dam project. Construction of the project began in 2015, and the reservoir became operational in 2023, after which the village was covered by water and residents were relocated. 

As the reservoir's water level dropped during the current dry spell, parts of the old settlement gradually became visible again. Images show remnants of concrete homes, walls, a mosque and other structures emerging from the exposed ground.

The sight has attracted attention because the landscape that had remained hidden underwater for years has suddenly become visible again.

El Niño Linked to Dry Conditions

The falling reservoir level is being reported amid the effects of an El Niño climate pattern, which can alter rainfall patterns across Southeast Asia.

During El Niño, changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures can influence atmospheric circulation and rainfall. In Indonesia, the phenomenon is often associated with reduced rainfall and hotter, drier conditions during the country's dry season.

Recent reporting has also documented worsening drought conditions in parts of Indonesia. Reuters reported that the country is experiencing widespread dry weather linked to an intensifying El Niño pattern, with agricultural communities facing water shortages even as some salt producers benefit from the prolonged sunshine. 

Rainfall Deficit Across Indonesia

Indonesia's weather agency, BMKG, had forecast below-normal rainfall across significant parts of the country in 2026.

According to the Aaj Tak report, BMKG estimated in June that around 64.5 per cent of Indonesia could receive below-normal rainfall, while approximately 57.2 per cent could experience a longer-than-usual dry season. The first part of July also saw rainfall below normal across a large portion of the country. 

BMKG subsequently indicated that El Niño had become active and could strengthen, raising concerns over prolonged dry conditions, water availability, agriculture and the risk of forest and land fires. 

Karian Reservoir’s Importance

The Karian Reservoir is an important water infrastructure project serving the wider Greater Jakarta region. Its water resources are intended to support the needs of a large and densely populated area.

The current decline in reservoir levels therefore carries significance beyond the appearance of the submerged village. A prolonged shortage of rainfall could put additional pressure on water resources, particularly if dry conditions continue for several months.

The re-emergence of Somang provides a visible indication of just how far the reservoir level has fallen.

What Happened to Somang?

Before the dam was constructed, Somang was a functioning village where families lived and worked. The construction of the reservoir required the settlement to be cleared and its residents relocated.

Once the reservoir filled, the village disappeared beneath the water. For years, there was little visible evidence of the settlement from the surface.

Now, with the water retreating, parts of the old village have returned to view. The exposed structures serve as a reminder of the communities that once occupied the land before it became part of the reservoir.

Drought Raises Wider Concerns

The resurfacing of Somang is visually striking, but the underlying reason is a matter of concern. Falling water levels can affect drinking-water supplies, farming and other activities dependent on reservoirs.

Indonesia is also dealing with an elevated risk of wildfires during the current dry period. Recent reports have highlighted fires across parts of the country amid exceptionally dry conditions. 

If rainfall remains below normal, pressure on water resources could increase further.

For now, the remains of Somang stand exposed as an unusual consequence of the drought — a village hidden beneath a reservoir for years has temporarily returned to the surface as Indonesia confronts a prolonged period of dry weather.

Reservoir left with just 12.5% water; hydropower generation halved; monsoon remains elusive as city records lowest June rainfall in a decade

The delayed monsoon and a severe rainfall deficit in June have begun to take a visible toll on the region's reservoirs, with the Bargi Dam — considered the lifeline of Jabalpur — witnessing a steady decline in water levels. In a first in 15 years, the dam is drying up in June itself. According to dam management officials, the water level is dropping by approximately five centimetres every day.

From 407.85 metres on June 15, the level has now fallen to 407.45 metres — a drop of nearly 40 centimetres. The dam currently holds only 12.59 per cent of its storage capacity, compared to about 22 per cent during the same period last year. Experts warn that even if all 21 gates are opened, water will not flow out due to the critically low level.

"We have never seen such a situation in June before," said Raja Ram Rohit, a water management expert associated with the Bargi Dam project. "The reservoir level has been brought down due to seepage repairs in the dam block. While there is no immediate cause for panic, it is essential that monsoon becomes active in the catchment areas within the next 10 to 12 days," he told reporters.

The impact on hydropower generation has been severe. One of the dam's two power generation units was shut down on June 27, while the second unit, which used to operate for eight to ten hours daily, is now being run for just three hours. Officials said a similar situation had occurred three years ago. In 2025, the water level at this time stood at 409.95 metres, compared with 407.65 metres this year.

Rainfall deficit deepens crisis

Jabalpur has recorded just 42.2 mm of rainfall this June, making it the driest June in a decade. Normal rainfall for the month up to June 30 is around eight inches (approximately 200 mm), but only about 1.5 inches has been recorded so far. Last year, the city had received 141.1 mm by June 27.

The monsoon's northern limit is currently around Mandla, and weather officials expect it to advance further. However, the India Meteorological Department has already flagged a 52 per cent rainfall deficit across Madhya Pradesh, with eastern districts — including Jabalpur, Rewa, Shahdol and Sagar — recording 65 to 71 per cent less rain than normal.

Narmada flow reduced, rocks emerge at ghats

The declining water level is also affecting the Narmada River, where rocks have begun to emerge at several ghats and reduced flow has led to deteriorating water quality. Water is normally released into the Narmada through the dam's hydropower plant. With one unit shut and the other operating on a limited schedule, the flow into the river has been significantly reduced.

Locals have started visiting the dam to witness the receding waterline. "I came here after hearing about the dam drying up. The water level has dropped drastically. Rocks are visible at many Narmada ghats, and the river water appears much lower and murkier than before," said Akash Koshta, a Jabalpur resident.

Drinking water, irrigation at risk

Bargi Dam supplies drinking water to Jabalpur and several surrounding towns and villages. Its canals irrigate farmland in Jabalpur and Narsinghpur, with future plans to extend water supply to Katni and Satna. Experts warn that if substantial rainfall does not arrive soon, the region could face a drinking water crisis in the coming weeks.

"We are releasing around 10 cusecs of water through the left bank canal for farmers, but this is only a stop-gap arrangement," an official said. The right bank canal had already been closed earlier, and the left bank canal is now operating at reduced capacity.

Meteorologists attribute the rainfall deficit to El Niño effects, which have weakened monsoon activity this year. They remain hopeful that the monsoon will pick up in July, but warn that any further delay could deepen the water crisis across several reservoirs in Madhya Pradesh, affecting power generation, irrigation and drinking water supply.

The southwest monsoon has remained stuck for 11 days, leaving 19 states awaiting widespread rainfall as multiple weather systems and emerging El Niño signals slow its progress.

The southwest monsoon has lost momentum after making rapid progress across large parts of the country earlier this month, leaving several states waiting for sustained rainfall. Weather officials say a combination of five active atmospheric systems is currently affecting monsoon circulation, resulting in a significant slowdown and widening rainfall deficits across India.

The monsoon, which reached Telangana on June 8, has remained virtually stationary since then. Over the past 11 days, it has failed to advance further into several regions, raising concerns among farmers and state administrations as temperatures continue to remain high in many areas.

According to rainfall data between June 1 and June 18, India has recorded 38% below-normal precipitation. Maharashtra and Gujarat have emerged among the worst-affected states, reporting rainfall deficits of around 78% and 79%, respectively.

Moisture Flow Weakens

Meteorologists attribute the slowdown to a rare situation where multiple weather systems are operating simultaneously and interfering with the normal monsoon pattern.

Moisture-bearing winds from the Arabian Sea have weakened, while cloud bands moving northward from southern India have failed to advance as expected. These disruptions have prevented the monsoon current from strengthening over central and northern parts of the country.

As a result, widespread monsoon rainfall remains absent across several regions despite favourable calendar dates for its arrival.

Heat Persists Despite Showers

Pre-monsoon activity continues in parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and Chhattisgarh. However, these scattered showers have not been enough to bring lasting relief from the heat.

Several locations across seven states recorded temperatures above 40°C on Wednesday. Banda in Uttar Pradesh emerged as the hottest place in the country at 43.2°C.

Temperatures also crossed 42°C in parts of Odisha and Maharashtra, while districts in Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh continued to experience intense daytime heat.

The combination of delayed monsoon rainfall and persistent high temperatures has increased discomfort levels, particularly in rural areas dependent on early-season agricultural activity.

El Niño Concerns Return

Adding to concerns, recent observations from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggest early signs of developing El Niño conditions.

According to the report, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a critical weather belt that helps draw moisture towards the Indian subcontinent, has not shifted northward at its usual pace. The delayed movement has contributed to the sluggish advance of the monsoon.

Satellite imagery indicates active thunderstorm development over eastern India, while cloud cover remains comparatively weak across Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and large parts of western India.

Experts caution that if El Niño conditions strengthen, rainfall distribution during the season could become uneven, increasing the likelihood of prolonged dry spells in some regions.

Heavy Rain In North Bengal

While many states await monsoon rains, parts of West Bengal have witnessed the opposite situation.

Heavy rainfall in Darjeeling district led to the collapse of a bridge over the swollen Balason River, disrupting road connectivity between Siliguri and the Mirik subdivision. North Bengal districts including Darjeeling, Kalimpong and Jalpaiguri have received intense rainfall over the past two days following the monsoon's arrival in the state on June 9.

Authorities are monitoring vulnerable areas as rain-related incidents continue to be reported.

Relief Expected Soon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that conditions may improve over the next four to five days.

Officials say the current jet stream pattern, which has been restricting monsoon movement, is expected to weaken gradually. This could allow the monsoon to regain strength and advance into Maharashtra, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and adjoining regions.

Rainfall activity is also expected to increase across eastern India, the Northeast and parts of central India over the next few days.

States Remain On Alert

Several states have already issued weather advisories. Rajasthan has placed more than 30 districts under thunderstorm and rainfall alerts, while Bihar remains under an orange alert for strong winds and rain. Uttarakhand has warned Char Dham pilgrims and residents in vulnerable districts to remain cautious amid forecasts of fresh showers.

In Madhya Pradesh, where rainfall remains 39% below normal, the monsoon is now expected to arrive around June 25, nearly 10 days later than its usual schedule.

With the sowing season approaching in many regions, the progress of the monsoon over the coming week will be closely watched by farmers, policymakers and weather experts alike.

Despite the current slowdown, meteorologists remain optimistic that conditions could become favorable for the monsoon to advance again within the next 4–5 days, with progress likely resuming between June 21 and June 23.

Third Consecutive Year of June Slowdown

The western branch of the monsoon has faced interruptions in recent years as well. In 2024, its advance slowed for about 8–9 days during the second week of June. In 2025, it remained nearly stationary along the Maharashtra coast for almost three weeks.

Weather experts note that such pauses do not necessarily indicate a weak monsoon season. Instead, rainfall often becomes concentrated into fewer days, resulting in more intense downpours when weather systems become active.

Why Has the Monsoon Stalled?

Meteorologists attribute the slowdown primarily to the delayed activation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a crucial weather system that normally shifts northward by mid-June and helps draw moisture-laden winds toward India.

Satellite observations from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also suggest that El Niño conditions are beginning to develop, which can lead to prolonged dry spells and uneven rainfall distribution across the country.

While thunderstorm activity remains active over eastern India, cloud cover has been relatively weak across Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and parts of western India, slowing the monsoon's progress.

Monsoon Progress So Far

After arriving in Kerala on June 4, the southwest monsoon advanced rapidly through 19 states within 14 days. However, it has remained stalled near Bhadrachalam in Telangana for the past week.

As a result, monsoon rains have been delayed in several regions, including Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, and parts of central India, where farmers are eagerly awaiting widespread rainfall for sowing activities.

Pre-Monsoon Activity Continues

Even as the monsoon remains stalled, pre-monsoon showers have been reported in several states, including:

• Madhya Pradesh
• Uttar Pradesh
• Bihar
• Rajasthan
• Himachal Pradesh
• Chhattisgarh

Heavy rainfall affected parts of Bihar on Wednesday, while strong winds caused localized damage in Rajasthan, including uprooted trees and collapsed structures in Jaipur and Udaipur.

Heatwave Conditions Persist

The delayed monsoon has allowed heatwave conditions to continue across large parts of the country. Temperatures exceeded 40°C in several cities across:

• Uttar Pradesh
• Madhya Pradesh
• Bihar
• Jharkhand
• Odisha
• Telangana
• Andhra Pradesh
• Maharashtra

The highest temperature recorded in the country was 45°C in Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh.

Rainfall Forecast

June 19

• Rain likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and Sikkim.
• Heavy rainfall expected in parts of Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karnataka.
• Thunderstorms and gusty winds likely in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

June 20

• Heavy rain expected in Sikkim, North Bengal, Assam and Meghalaya.
• Thunderstorms with strong winds likely in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
• Rainfall activity may continue in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

When Will the Monsoon Advance Again?

According to IMD, the current pause is linked to upper-atmospheric jet stream patterns, which are influencing the movement of monsoon clouds. Once these fast-moving winds weaken, monsoon currents are expected to strengthen and advance into Maharashtra, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and adjoining regions.

Weather experts expect the next significant phase of monsoon advancement to begin by the third week of June, bringing relief from intense heat and improving conditions for agriculture across much of India.

Government to release May 2026 CPI at 4pm; analysts flag Iran war, oil spike and El Niño as upside risks

India’s consumer price inflation for May 2026 is scheduled for release at 4pm on Friday, and early estimates suggest the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may touch the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target for the first time in 16 months. According to analysts and officials familiar with the data flow, rising crude prices after disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and weather risks from El Niño have pushed headline inflation upward in recent months.

Rising retail prices

Initial indicators point to a continued pickup in retail inflation after April’s 3.48% reading, which itself edged up from 3.40% in March. “We expect May CPI to be around 4.0%,” a senior economist at a private bank said on condition of anonymity, noting that energy and transport-related components are the main drivers. If the figure comes in at 4%, it will end a 15-month streak of readings below the RBI’s 4% midpoint.

Wholesale surge persists

Wholesale price pressures have already shown sharper movement. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation rose to a 42-month high of 8.30% in April from 3.88% in March, reflecting a broad-based rise in commodity costs and supply-chain disruptions. That jump has fed through to some retail items, particularly fuel, edible oils and items linked to international shipping from the Gulf.

Oil and geopolitics

Crude prices spiked sharply after the Iran war-related disruption, briefly climbing from about $70 per barrel to as high as $126. The higher oil trajectory has flowed into domestic pump prices and freight costs, lifting both direct and indirect components of the CPI. At the June Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the RBI raised its FY27 inflation projection from 4.6% to 5.1% and warned that elevated crude and possible weather disturbances were upside risks. Governor Sanjay Malhotra had pointed to these factors when explaining the committee’s caution on policy normalisation.

New base-year effect

This release will be the fifth CPI data point published under the government’s updated base year of 2024. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) shifted the base from 2012 to 2024 to reflect current consumption patterns and expanded the inflation basket. The move raised the number of goods and services tracked — from 299 to 358 items overall (259 to 308 products and 40 to 50 services) — and introduced new items such as rural house rent, CNG and PNG, OTT subscription fees, air and rail fares, and mobile tariffs.

Ground reality

On the ground in several cities early Friday, vendors and commuters reported higher transport fares and diesel-led increases in delivery charges. A vegetable wholesaler at a market in Bhopal said farmers were getting slightly better returns but retail prices for some vegetables remained sticky due to transport costs. “Trucking costs have gone up; that touches everything,” he said.

Public impact and watchpoints

A May CPI print at or near 4% will have immediate relevance for markets and policy makers. It would signal that the brief period of sub-4% headline inflation is over even as core inflation — which strips out volatile food and fuel — remains the key concern for the RBI. Higher headline inflation may harden market expectations about the pace and duration of monetary tightening, complicating the MPC’s balancing act between containing inflation and supporting growth.

What to expect next

Market participants will watch the detailed CPI release for component-wise readings: food (cereals, vegetables), fuel and light, transport, housing and services. The ministry’s release will also be scrutinised for any base-year related anomalies as the new series settles in. Analysts say momentum in oil prices and monsoon progress over June-July will be decisive for the near-term inflation path.

The MoSPI data comes as the economy is adjusting to higher global commodity costs and shifting domestic demand patterns. Observers say the RBI will remain data-driven, keeping options open depending on how inflation evolves in coming months.

The United Nations has issued a strong alert over the likely return of El Niño, with an 80 per cent probability of the climate pattern developing before September. The development has raised fresh concerns in India about a potentially deficient southwest monsoon and drought-like conditions in several parts of the country.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is a 90 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will persist through November. Most models suggest the event could be at least moderate in strength, and some experts believe it may rank among the stronger episodes in recent decades.

Global temperatures set to rise further

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the forecast as “pouring fuel on the fire of a warming world.” He urged governments to prepare for intensified extreme weather events, including heatwaves, floods, and droughts.

The WMO has also forecast above-average temperatures across most regions in the coming months. The previous El Niño of 2023-24 was among the five strongest on record and contributed to record global heat in 2024.

How El Niño disrupts Indian monsoon

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm. This alters global atmospheric circulation, particularly the Walker Circulation, often weakening the flow of moisture towards the Indian subcontinent.

In India, El Niño years are historically linked to below-normal rainfall, delayed monsoon onset, and uneven distribution. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already projected that the country may receive only about 92 per cent of normal rainfall this season. While some parts of the Northeast, Northwest, and South may fare better, large swathes of central and western India could see deficits.

 Farming and rural economy at risk

With over half of India’s farmland still dependent on monsoon rains, even a modest shortfall can have serious consequences. Lower crop output, especially in rain-fed regions, could hit farmer incomes and weaken rural demand. Kharif sowing, which begins in June-July, remains particularly vulnerable.

Experts warn that prolonged dry spells during the second half of the monsoon (July-September) could worsen water shortages in reservoirs and rivers.

 Heatwaves likely to intensify

India is already seeing longer and more severe heatwaves due to climate change. El Niño conditions often amplify this trend. Central and northwestern states may face extended periods of extreme heat in the coming months.

A recent Lancet study highlighted the scale of the problem. Heat exposure in 2024 alone led to the loss of an estimated 247 billion potential labour hours in India, mostly in agriculture and construction, causing economic losses of around $194 billion. Informal workers, daily wagers, and those in outdoor occupations remain the worst affected.

 Food security and inflation concerns

Global food supplies are already under pressure. A strong El Niño could further disrupt production in key regions, pushing up prices. In India, any significant shortfall in domestic output of rice, pulses, or oilseeds may increase food inflation, affecting households and government subsidy programmes.

Officials are closely monitoring reservoir levels and groundwater situations. Some states have begun early planning for contingency measures, including cloud seeding in select areas and promotion of drought-resistant crop varieties.

 Background and past lessons

India has faced notable El Niño impacts in the past, including the severe drought years of 2002, 2009, and 2015-16. Each episode brought deficient rainfall and tested the country’s preparedness.

However, improved forecasting, better irrigation coverage in some states, and expanded crop insurance have helped reduce vulnerability over the years. This time, the challenge is compounded by the long-term effects of climate change.

 What lies ahead

The IMD is expected to release its updated monsoon forecast in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the government may accelerate preparations for water management and contingency planning at the state level.

As the world heads into another period of climatic uncertainty, the UN warning serves as a timely reminder of the increasing frequency and intensity of such events. For India, the focus remains on minimising the impact on its 1.4 billion people, particularly those dependent on agriculture and vulnerable to extreme heat.