The United Nations has issued a strong alert over the likely return of El Niño, with an 80 per cent probability of the climate pattern developing before September. The development has raised fresh concerns in India about a potentially deficient southwest monsoon and drought-like conditions in several parts of the country.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is a 90 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will persist through November. Most models suggest the event could be at least moderate in strength, and some experts believe it may rank among the stronger episodes in recent decades.

Global temperatures set to rise further

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the forecast as “pouring fuel on the fire of a warming world.” He urged governments to prepare for intensified extreme weather events, including heatwaves, floods, and droughts.

The WMO has also forecast above-average temperatures across most regions in the coming months. The previous El Niño of 2023-24 was among the five strongest on record and contributed to record global heat in 2024.

How El Niño disrupts Indian monsoon

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm. This alters global atmospheric circulation, particularly the Walker Circulation, often weakening the flow of moisture towards the Indian subcontinent.

In India, El Niño years are historically linked to below-normal rainfall, delayed monsoon onset, and uneven distribution. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already projected that the country may receive only about 92 per cent of normal rainfall this season. While some parts of the Northeast, Northwest, and South may fare better, large swathes of central and western India could see deficits.

 Farming and rural economy at risk

With over half of India’s farmland still dependent on monsoon rains, even a modest shortfall can have serious consequences. Lower crop output, especially in rain-fed regions, could hit farmer incomes and weaken rural demand. Kharif sowing, which begins in June-July, remains particularly vulnerable.

Experts warn that prolonged dry spells during the second half of the monsoon (July-September) could worsen water shortages in reservoirs and rivers.

 Heatwaves likely to intensify

India is already seeing longer and more severe heatwaves due to climate change. El Niño conditions often amplify this trend. Central and northwestern states may face extended periods of extreme heat in the coming months.

A recent Lancet study highlighted the scale of the problem. Heat exposure in 2024 alone led to the loss of an estimated 247 billion potential labour hours in India, mostly in agriculture and construction, causing economic losses of around $194 billion. Informal workers, daily wagers, and those in outdoor occupations remain the worst affected.

 Food security and inflation concerns

Global food supplies are already under pressure. A strong El Niño could further disrupt production in key regions, pushing up prices. In India, any significant shortfall in domestic output of rice, pulses, or oilseeds may increase food inflation, affecting households and government subsidy programmes.

Officials are closely monitoring reservoir levels and groundwater situations. Some states have begun early planning for contingency measures, including cloud seeding in select areas and promotion of drought-resistant crop varieties.

 Background and past lessons

India has faced notable El Niño impacts in the past, including the severe drought years of 2002, 2009, and 2015-16. Each episode brought deficient rainfall and tested the country’s preparedness.

However, improved forecasting, better irrigation coverage in some states, and expanded crop insurance have helped reduce vulnerability over the years. This time, the challenge is compounded by the long-term effects of climate change.

 What lies ahead

The IMD is expected to release its updated monsoon forecast in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the government may accelerate preparations for water management and contingency planning at the state level.

As the world heads into another period of climatic uncertainty, the UN warning serves as a timely reminder of the increasing frequency and intensity of such events. For India, the focus remains on minimising the impact on its 1.4 billion people, particularly those dependent on agriculture and vulnerable to extreme heat.