India and the United States remain committed to advancing their bilateral trade agreement despite proposed US legislation that could impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries that are among the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said on Thursday.

Agrawal played down concerns over the proposed legislation, describing it as part of the US domestic legislative process while emphasising that trade negotiations between New Delhi and Washington continue.

Trade Talks Remain on Track

Asked about the potential impact of the proposed Russia-related tariffs on India, Agrawal declined to comment directly on the legislation.

He said the matter was currently part of the US legislative process and should be viewed in that context.

At the same time, the Commerce Secretary stressed that India remains engaged with the US administration on the trade agreement and that communication between the two sides continues regularly.

According to Agrawal, both countries remain committed to moving ahead with the agreement.

US Russia Tariff Bill

The comments come days after the US Senate passed a Russia sanctions bill that could give President Donald Trump the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries that rank among the five largest purchasers of Russian oil and gas.

The legislation is yet to clear the US House of Representatives, meaning it has not completed the American legislative process.

The proposed measure has attracted attention in India because Russia remains an important source of crude oil for Indian refiners.

India-US BTA Negotiations

India and the US have been negotiating a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) aimed at expanding market access and strengthening economic ties between the two countries.

Negotiations have focused on several areas, including market access, digital trade, supply chain resilience and the reduction of non-tariff barriers.

Strategic sectors have also been part of the discussions as both countries seek to deepen their economic relationship.

During US Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer's visit to New Delhi from June 22 to 24, he held discussions with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on key elements of the proposed agreement.

The two sides had said substantial progress had been made by their negotiating teams.

Interim Trade Framework

India and the US had earlier announced a framework for an interim agreement in February covering reciprocal and mutually beneficial trade.

The framework was presented as part of a broader effort to increase bilateral trade while negotiations on the larger BTA continued.

Both countries have said the eventual agreement should be commercially meaningful and provide benefits for businesses, farmers, workers and consumers.

Russian Oil Adds Fresh Pressure

The proposed US tariff mechanism has introduced another potential complication into the trade negotiations.

India has continued purchasing Russian crude because of factors including competitive pricing and the importance of securing adequate energy supplies.

Washington's proposed measures could therefore create additional pressure on countries maintaining significant trade in Russian energy.

However, Agrawal's remarks indicate that New Delhi does not currently view the proposed legislation as preventing progress on the wider India-US trade negotiations.

Earlier this week, US Presidential Counsellor Peter Navarro said that President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have a “very good working relationship” and would resolve issues concerning tariffs linked to Russian oil.

Focus Remains on Trade Agreement

For now, India and the US are continuing their engagement on the bilateral trade agreement while the proposed Russia-related legislation moves through the US Congress.

The next stage of the legislative process in Washington, along with the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations, will determine whether the issue creates additional pressure on bilateral economic relations.

Agrawal's comments nevertheless underline New Delhi's position that the broader trade dialogue with Washington remains active and both sides continue to work towards an agreement.

A fresh debate has emerged around the proposed India-US interim trade agreement after trade experts cautioned that signing the deal may not fully protect Indian exports from future tariff actions by the United States. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), the administration of Donald Trump could still impose additional duties on Indian goods despite a trade pact. The concern stems from ongoing American investigations related to alleged forced-labour compliance issues and Washington's broader trade strategy toward partner nations. At the same time, economists have raised concerns over India's reported commitment to purchase up to $500 billion (approximately ₹47.5 lakh crore) worth of American goods over five years, arguing that such imports could widen trade imbalances and exert further pressure on the rupee. The developments come as both countries intensify negotiations aimed at concluding an interim trade agreement.

According to GTRI, recent actions by the US government indicate that trade agreements do not necessarily prevent future tariff measures. The think tank pointed to investigations initiated under Section 301 of US trade laws, which allow Washington to impose duties on countries accused of unfair trade practices or inadequate enforcement of labour standards.

Tariff Concerns Remain

Trade analysts note that the Trump administration has previously considered additional tariffs on countries that allegedly failed to prevent imports linked to forced labour. India has reportedly been among the nations examined under these investigations.

GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava argued that even if tariff rates are reduced through an interim trade arrangement, future investigations could still result in new duties. The organization estimates that proposed reciprocal tariffs could potentially decline from 25% to 18% under a bilateral trade arrangement, though uncertainty would remain.

Officials on both sides have not publicly commented on whether such provisions are being discussed in the ongoing negotiations.

Impact on Rupee

Economist Devinder Sharma has expressed concerns over the scale of proposed purchases from the United States. According to him, importing American products worth nearly ₹47.5 lakh crore over five years could increase demand for US dollars and place additional pressure on the Indian currency.

The rupee has already faced challenges in recent months due to foreign portfolio investor outflows, elevated global trade uncertainty and a rising import bill. Currency market analysts say sustained large-scale imports without corresponding export growth could widen the trade deficit and affect exchange rate stability.

However, supporters of the proposed deal argue that increased imports of energy products, defence equipment, aircraft and advanced technologies could strengthen strategic ties and support long-term economic growth.

What Washington Wants

Reports from recent negotiation rounds suggest the United States is seeking broader market access in sectors such as agriculture, energy, defence, digital services and advanced technologies. Washington is also believed to be encouraging closer economic cooperation and increased purchases of American goods.

In return, the US is expected to offer lower reciprocal tariffs and greater market certainty for selected Indian exports.

The latest round of discussions resumed in New Delhi on Tuesday, where Piyush Goyal met with Jamieson Greer during Greer's two-day visit to India.

US President Donald Trump has reiterated that highly skilled Indian professionals will continue to find opportunities in the United States, underlining the strong people-to-people and economic ties between the two countries.

Speaking during a joint press interaction with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Evian, France, Trump described India as a nation of “very talented people” and said that highly skilled Indians would receive more opportunities in the United States.

The remarks came in response to a question regarding skilled immigration and employment opportunities for Indian professionals in America. Trump emphasized the close relationship between the two nations and noted that India and the United States share strong economic and strategic interests.

Focus on Skilled Talent

Trump’s statement holds particular significance because Indian nationals account for the largest share of approvals under the H-1B visa programme, which allows US companies to hire foreign professionals in specialized fields such as technology, engineering, healthcare and scientific research.

The comments also come shortly after legal developments in the United States related to skilled immigration. A proposal that would have imposed a substantial federal fee on companies employing H-1B visa holders faced opposition from technology firms and immigrant communities and was ultimately struck down by the US Supreme Court.

Industry observers believe any change in US immigration policy directly affects Indian professionals, given the large number of Indians employed in the American technology sector and multinational corporations.

Trade Talks Also Advance

During the interaction, Trump also spoke positively about India-US trade relations. He indicated that both countries are moving closer to a trade agreement and suggested that discussions between officials have made considerable progress.

The US President praised Prime Minister Modi’s negotiating abilities, describing him as one of the toughest negotiators he has encountered. The remarks reflected the growing engagement between the two countries on trade, investment, technology and strategic cooperation.

Importance for Indian Professionals

For Indian students and professionals seeking careers abroad, Trump's statement is likely to be viewed as an encouraging signal. The United States remains one of the most preferred destinations for Indian talent, particularly in sectors such as information technology, artificial intelligence, healthcare, finance and research.

Experts note that while Trump's comments indicate a positive outlook toward highly skilled workers, future immigration policies will ultimately depend on legislative decisions and administrative measures taken by the US government.

Growing Strategic Partnership

The latest interaction between Modi and Trump comes amid expanding cooperation in defence, technology, energy and supply chains. Both countries have increasingly emphasized innovation, digital transformation and talent mobility as key pillars of their bilateral relationship.

As discussions continue on trade and economic cooperation, skilled Indian professionals are expected to remain an important bridge connecting the world's two largest democracies.

Jaishankar Meets Marco Rubio in Washington Amid Key India-US Developments

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington on Tuesday, marking a significant diplomatic engagement just days after India and the United States announced a major trade deal. The meeting took place during Jaishankar’s three-day official visit to the US and ahead of the first-ever Critical Minerals Ministerial, scheduled for February 4.

The high-level talks focused on strengthening cooperation in nuclear energy, defence, and critical minerals, areas that are increasingly central to India-US strategic and economic ties.

Trade Deal Sets the Context for Strategic Talks

The meeting comes a day after both countries unveiled a new trade agreement under which Washington agreed to reduce tariffs on Indian goods to 18%. This development has provided fresh momentum to bilateral relations, especially at a time when global supply chains and geopolitical alliances are undergoing rapid shifts.

Posting on X after the meeting, Jaishankar said he was “delighted” to meet Rubio, signalling a positive tone and shared intent to deepen cooperation across multiple sectors.

Focus on Critical Minerals and Global Supply Chains

A key agenda item during the visit is the Critical Minerals Ministerial, which the US is hosting for the first time in Washington DC. According to the US State Department, delegations from over 50 countries will participate, aiming to strengthen cooperation and diversify global critical mineral supply chains.

These minerals are essential for clean energy technologies, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defence manufacturing. For India, collaboration in this area is vital to reduce dependence on limited suppliers and support its manufacturing and energy transition goals.

Secretary Rubio is expected to chair the ministerial, bringing together global partners to enhance coordination and long-term security of mineral supplies.

Wider Economic and Strategic Engagement

Earlier in the day, Jaishankar also met US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The two leaders discussed ways to advance the India-US economic partnership and enhance strategic cooperation. Jaishankar described the interaction as “useful,” highlighting the growing alignment between the two economies.

Experts note that these back-to-back meetings underline how economic policy, trade, and strategic interests are now deeply interconnected in India-US relations.

Why This Meeting Matters Now

With rising global competition over resources, technology, and supply chains, Jaishankar meets Marco Rubio at a crucial moment. The discussions reflect a shared recognition that closer coordination on defence, nuclear energy, and critical minerals is essential for long-term stability and growth.

What It Means for India

For India, the outcomes of this visit could mean:

Better access to advanced technologies

 Stronger defence and energy partnerships

 A more secure position in global supply chains

As India and the US continue to align their strategic priorities, these talks signal a deepening partnership that goes beyond trade and into long-term geopolitical cooperation.

Jaishankar’s meeting with Marco Rubio highlights a new phase in India-US relations, driven by trade reforms, strategic trust, and shared global challenges. With critical minerals and defence cooperation taking centre stage, the partnership appears set to grow stronger in the months ahead.

US-India Trade Breakthrough: Trump Announces Tariff Cut to 18%, But Key Questions Remain

In a sudden late-night announcement that could reshape economic ties, former and potential future US President Donald Trump declared a pivotal trade agreement with India. The deal, reportedly finalized during a phone conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, promises to significantly ease trade tensions that had been simmering for over a year.

The Core of the Deal: A Major Tariff Reduction

The centerpiece of the announcement is a drastic reduction in US tariffs on Indian goods. Previously, India faced a compounded 50% tariff—25% labeled as a "reciprocal" levy on Indian products and an additional 25% imposed due to India's continued import of Russian oil. According to Trump's statement, the reciprocal portion will be immediately reduced from 25% to 18%. Crucially, the additional 25% tariff linked to Russian oil imports is set to be completely waived.

In return, Trump claims India has agreed to "remove most tariff and non-tariff barriers" and levy zero tariffs on a majority of US goods. He also stated India pledged to purchase $500 billion worth of American energy, technology, agriculture, and machinery products.

A Strategic Shift Following the EU Deal

Analysts see this swift agreement as a direct geopolitical and economic maneuver. It comes just days after India inked a separate trade deal with the European Union (EU). That agreement had drawn sharp criticism from Trump's camp, who argued it primarily benefited India and would divert Indian exports away from the US market. The new US-India deal appears to be a strategic counterpunch to ensure American economic interests aren't sidelined.

"Every economy acts in its national self-interest," notes a trade policy observer. "The EU deal likely triggered a sense of urgency in Washington. Losing the Indian market to European competitors was a risk the US couldn't afford."

Unconfirmed Claims and the Russian Oil Question

While Prime Minister Modi confirmed the conversation and celebrated the reduced tariffs for "Made in India" products, his statement did not verify several of Trump's specific claims. This creates a zone of ambiguity around two major points:

1.  Cessation of Russian Oil Imports: Trump asserted that India agreed to stop buying Russian oil and would instead source more from the US and Venezuela. India has made no such official confirmation. Given Russia's status as a long-term, reliable partner and a key supplier of discounted oil, a sudden, complete halt seems improbable. Experts suggest India may reduce imports marginally, but a total cutoff is unlikely and may represent political messaging for Trump's domestic audience.

2.  The $500 Billion Purchase Pledge: The massive commitment to buy American goods also remains unconfirmed by New Delhi. The specifics of this pledge, including the timeline and sectors, are unclear and will be critical in assessing the deal's balance.

Potential Impact on India: A Competitive Edge

If implemented as outlined, the tariff reduction could be a substantial boost for key Indian export sectors.

Immediate Export Boost: Slashing the effective tariff from 50% to 18% will make Indian products like gems & jewellery, textiles, leather goods, and machinery far more competitive in the US market.

Gaining Advantage: Compared to competitors like Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Pakistan—which face US tariffs around 19-20%—India's new 18% rate could provide a valuable competitive edge.

Investment Inflow: The de-escalation of trade tensions is likely to restore investor confidence, potentially reversing recent foreign investment outflows and boosting Indian stock markets.

What to Watch Next: The Devil in the Details

The announcement is a headline; the real substance will be in the fine print. Key details are still awaited, including:

   Sector-specific commitments and phase-out schedules.

   The exact nature of tariff reductions India will offer on US goods.

   Clarifications on services trade and non-tariff barriers.

   Official confirmation (or denial) of the Russian oil and $500 billion purchase claims.

A Step Forward, With Caveats

The US-India trade deal announcement marks a significant diplomatic thaw after a period of strain and positions India as a nation skillfully navigating between major global powers. While it offers tangible benefits for Indian exporters, the unverified elements introduce a note of caution. The coming days, as more details emerge, will reveal whether this is a fully balanced agreement or a deal where the public pronouncements and private commitments may not entirely align. For now, it underscores a mutual recognition: in today's fragmented global economy, neither the US nor India can afford prolonged economic discord.

In a dramatic intraday reversal, Indian equity benchmarks clawed back from steep losses to close higher on Monday, January 12, 2026, powered solely by renewed optimism around crucial trade negotiations with the United States.

The Sensex, which had plunged over 700 points by midday, staged a remarkable recovery of 778 points from its day's low to trade in positive territory. Similarly, the Nifty 50 index reclaimed the 25,700 level. The sharp U-turn was triggered by comments from the newly arrived U.S. Ambassador-designate, Sergio Gor, who signaled a constructive path forward on a long-pending bilateral trade agreement.

A Diplomatic Hint Ignites Market Recovery

The market's sentiment shifted dramatically following Ambassador Sergio Gor's first public address in New Delhi. A close aide to President Donald Trump, Gor stated that the two nations are "actively engaged" on a trade deal and revealed that the next high-level call on trade is scheduled for Tuesday.

"Real friends can disagree, but always resolve their differences in the end," Gor remarked, striking a conciliatory tone aimed at resetting ties strained by U.S. tariffs on Indian goods. He acknowledged the challenge, noting, "it’s not an easy task to get this across the finish line, but we are determined to get there".

This diplomatic outreach provided immediate relief to markets worried about persistent trade tensions. In August, the Trump administration had imposed an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing total tariffs to 50%, as punishment for New Delhi's continued purchases of Russian crude oil.

Markets in the Green Amidst Mixed Global Cues

The domestic rebound contrasted with early broad-based selling and mixed global signals:

Sectoral Performance: Early weakness in realty, media, and auto stocks was offset by a resurgence in banking, financials, and metal sectors during the recovery.

Asian Markets: Key Asian indices like Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Korea's KOSPI traded higher, while Japan's Nikkei was closed.

Institutional Activity: The recovery comes despite ongoing foreign institutional investor (FII) selling. On January 8 alone, FIIs sold shares worth ₹3,769 crore, continuing a trend from recent months. However, this has been consistently offset by strong buying from domestic institutional investors (DIIs), who provided a ₹5,595 crore counterbalance the same day.

IPO Market Shows Unabated Appetite

Demonstrating robust domestic investor confidence, the Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) IPO entered its second day with overwhelming demand. The issue was subscribed over 28 times by the afternoon, with the Non-Institutional Investor (NII) quota booked a staggering 77.86 times.

Price Band: ₹21 to ₹23 per share.

Minimum Investment: ₹13,800 (for 600 shares at the upper band).

Expert View: Brokerages like Anand Rathi have given a "Subscribe" rating, primarily for listing gains, citing the company's dominant market position in coking coal.

What Investors Should Watch Next

The market's direction hinges on several immediate factors:

1.  The Tuesday Trade Call: Any positive cues or concrete progress from the scheduled India-U.S. trade discussion will be the primary market driver.

2.  Third Quarter Earnings: The results season picks up pace this week with IT majors like TCS and HCL Technologies announcing their scores, setting the tone for corporate performance.

3.  Institutional Flow Trend: Whether DIIs can continue to counterbalance FII selling remains critical for near-term stability.

A Cautious Path Forward

Monday's volatile session underscores how geopolitical and trade developments are now immediate market triggers. While the ambassador's comments have provided a temporary reprieve, analysts caution that volatility will persist until a concrete trade agreement is reached. The market's resilience, supported by strong domestic liquidity and upbeat participation in public offerings, however, provides a firm floor against external shocks.

For investors, the lesson is clear: in today's interconnected market, a headline from a diplomatic press conference can be as powerful as an earnings report.