New SIPRI Yearbook 2026 reveals India expanded its nuclear stockpile to around 190 warheads by early 2026, while defence spending climbed to $92.1 billion, placing it fifth globally.

India has quietly but steadily expanded its nuclear arsenal over the past year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's annual yearbook released Monday. The SIPRI Yearbook 2026 puts India's warhead count at approximately 190 by early 2026, up from earlier estimates, with New Delhi increasingly training its long-range deterrent capabilities toward China even as its strategic posture continues to be shaped by the rivalry with Pakistan.

The report, one of the most closely watched annual assessments of global military and nuclear trends, paints a picture of an India that is simultaneously building up its deterrent, spending more on defence than ever before, and navigating one of the most dangerous military crises in its recent history.

Op Sindoor: An 'Unusually Severe' Moment

SIPRI's characterisation of Operation Sindoor — India's military strikes against Pakistan in May 2025 — is notable. The institute described the confrontation as "an unusually severe military crisis" between two nuclear-armed neighbours, a rare and pointed assessment in diplomatic language.

According to the yearbook, India's strikes targeted Pakistani air and missile bases that were "likely to have nuclear-related roles." That detail alone underscores how close the two sides came to crossing lines that have historically been treated as inviolable. SIPRI did note, however, that both governments took visible steps to prevent the situation from spiralling further.

Perhaps equally significant was what the report said about cyber operations. For the first time, India and Pakistan incorporated cyberattacks into active military conflict during the crisis — a development SIPRI flagged as a marker of how deterrence and military competition in South Asia are evolving well beyond conventional munitions.

Fifth-Largest Defence Spender

India's defence expenditure rose to $92.1 billion in 2025, a jump of 8.9 per cent over the previous year. Only the United States, China, Russia, and Germany spent more. The figure reflects both ongoing modernisation programmes and the operational demands of a more assertive posture across multiple fronts.

India also held its position as the world's second-largest importer of major arms over the 2021–25 period, accounting for 8.2 per cent of global arms imports. Among the top five importers — Ukraine, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan — those nations together absorbed 35 per cent of all major weapons systems traded globally during the period.

A World Leaning Harder on Nuclear Weapons

The broader picture SIPRI draws is sobering. The nine nuclear-armed states — the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel — are collectively leaning more heavily on their arsenals as instruments of national power. The institute described this as a reversal of decades of arms-reduction efforts.

As of early 2026, those nine states held a combined 12,187 nuclear warheads. Of these, 9,745 were in active military stockpiles, 4,012 were deployed with operational forces, and between 2,100 and 2,200 were on ballistic missiles in a state of high alert. The United States and Russia together accounted for roughly 86 per cent of the global total.

While the overall number of warheads worldwide continues to fall, SIPRI noted that this decline is driven almost entirely by the US and Russia dismantling old, retired weapons — not by any reduction in active capability.

China and Pakistan Also Building Up

China expanded its stockpile from around 600 to approximately 620 warheads during 2025, continuing a major modernisation programme. Pakistan, too, was accumulating fissile material and developing new delivery systems throughout the year, with SIPRI suggesting its arsenal could grow significantly over the coming decade.

The report also pointed to submarine-based nuclear delivery as a growing priority, particularly among the four nuclear-armed states in the Indo-Pacific — a category that directly implicates India, China, and Pakistan.

India has primarily relied on plutonium for its warheads, a production pathway it shares with Israel, according to SIPRI.