India is seeing a sharp regional shift in monsoon activity, with satellite imagery showing much of the country relatively free of widespread cloud cover while the eastern region continues to experience significant rainfall. At the same time, flooding has affected around 27 lakh people across 13 districts of Bihar, while parts of the Western Ghats have recorded exceptionally high rainfall.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast isolated heavy rainfall over East India during the next three to four days, indicating that rainfall activity is likely to remain concentrated over the eastern and northeastern parts of the country even as conditions become comparatively drier elsewhere.

Satellite Images Show Major Shift in Cloud Cover

Recent IMD satellite imagery shows a marked reduction in cloud cover over large parts of India, particularly across northwestern and central regions.

The satellite picture is being viewed as an indication of the changing distribution of monsoon activity. However, reduced cloud cover alone should not be interpreted as the official withdrawal of the southwest monsoon. The timing and extent of monsoon withdrawal are determined by IMD's established criteria and forecasts.

The latest IMD information continues to show rainfall warnings for Bihar, with heavy rain forecast on September 8, 9 and 10, followed by thunderstorm and lightning warnings on subsequent days.

Bihar Floods Affect Around 27 Lakh People

Flood conditions remain a major concern in Bihar, where overflowing rivers have affected approximately 27 lakh people across 13 districts.

The Ganga, Gandak, Kosi, Budhi Gandak, Punpun and Bagmati are among the rivers contributing to the difficult situation. Authorities have intensified relief and rescue operations in affected areas.

According to officials cited by The New Indian Express, 190 community kitchens were operating in flood-hit districts and 1,429 boats had been deployed for relief and rescue operations. The Ganga has also crossed danger levels at several locations, prompting authorities to maintain close surveillance of vulnerable areas.

The situation remained fluid on September 8, with reports indicating that water levels had begun falling at some locations while several rivers continued to flow above danger levels.

Death Toll Reported at 20

The flooding has also resulted in fatalities.

Reports on September 8 put the officially confirmed death toll at 20, although the flood situation continues to evolve as water spreads into additional villages and low-lying areas.

In Bhagalpur and other flood-affected districts, authorities are continuing rescue, food distribution and monitoring operations.

IMD Warns of More Rain in Bihar

The weather threat has not ended despite the changing cloud pattern over much of the country.

The IMD's Patna centre has forecast heavy rainfall in Bihar on September 8, 9 and 10. Thunderstorms and lightning are also expected during the following days.

This means that additional rainfall could complicate flood management, particularly in areas where rivers are already flowing close to or above danger levels.

Maharashtra's Western Ghats Continue to See Heavy Rain

While central and northwestern India are seeing reduced widespread cloud cover, the Western Ghats remain among the country's wetter regions.

The Amboli region of Maharashtra has been highlighted for exceptionally high seasonal rainfall. However, claims that Amboli has definitively received more rainfall than Cherrapunji should be treated carefully unless the comparison uses the same measurement period, station and methodology.

IMD's Mumbai centre continues to record significant rainfall across parts of Maharashtra, with the September 8 bulletin showing measurable rainfall at several stations and very high humidity in the Western Ghats.

Monsoon Activity Becoming More Uneven

The latest weather pattern illustrates how uneven India's monsoon can become during the later part of the season.

While rainfall has weakened across some parts of the country, eastern India continues to face heavy-rain threats. The IMD has separately indicated that rainfall activity is likely to remain subdued over peninsular India during the coming week.

For flood-hit Bihar, however, the immediate concern remains river levels and additional rainfall rather than the broader question of monsoon withdrawal.

With heavy rainfall forecast over Bihar in the coming days, authorities and residents in vulnerable districts will need to continue monitoring river levels, embankments and local weather alerts.

Despite the current slowdown, meteorologists remain optimistic that conditions could become favorable for the monsoon to advance again within the next 4–5 days, with progress likely resuming between June 21 and June 23.

Third Consecutive Year of June Slowdown

The western branch of the monsoon has faced interruptions in recent years as well. In 2024, its advance slowed for about 8–9 days during the second week of June. In 2025, it remained nearly stationary along the Maharashtra coast for almost three weeks.

Weather experts note that such pauses do not necessarily indicate a weak monsoon season. Instead, rainfall often becomes concentrated into fewer days, resulting in more intense downpours when weather systems become active.

Why Has the Monsoon Stalled?

Meteorologists attribute the slowdown primarily to the delayed activation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a crucial weather system that normally shifts northward by mid-June and helps draw moisture-laden winds toward India.

Satellite observations from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also suggest that El Niño conditions are beginning to develop, which can lead to prolonged dry spells and uneven rainfall distribution across the country.

While thunderstorm activity remains active over eastern India, cloud cover has been relatively weak across Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and parts of western India, slowing the monsoon's progress.

Monsoon Progress So Far

After arriving in Kerala on June 4, the southwest monsoon advanced rapidly through 19 states within 14 days. However, it has remained stalled near Bhadrachalam in Telangana for the past week.

As a result, monsoon rains have been delayed in several regions, including Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, and parts of central India, where farmers are eagerly awaiting widespread rainfall for sowing activities.

Pre-Monsoon Activity Continues

Even as the monsoon remains stalled, pre-monsoon showers have been reported in several states, including:

• Madhya Pradesh
• Uttar Pradesh
• Bihar
• Rajasthan
• Himachal Pradesh
• Chhattisgarh

Heavy rainfall affected parts of Bihar on Wednesday, while strong winds caused localized damage in Rajasthan, including uprooted trees and collapsed structures in Jaipur and Udaipur.

Heatwave Conditions Persist

The delayed monsoon has allowed heatwave conditions to continue across large parts of the country. Temperatures exceeded 40°C in several cities across:

• Uttar Pradesh
• Madhya Pradesh
• Bihar
• Jharkhand
• Odisha
• Telangana
• Andhra Pradesh
• Maharashtra

The highest temperature recorded in the country was 45°C in Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh.

Rainfall Forecast

June 19

• Rain likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and Sikkim.
• Heavy rainfall expected in parts of Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karnataka.
• Thunderstorms and gusty winds likely in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

June 20

• Heavy rain expected in Sikkim, North Bengal, Assam and Meghalaya.
• Thunderstorms with strong winds likely in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
• Rainfall activity may continue in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

When Will the Monsoon Advance Again?

According to IMD, the current pause is linked to upper-atmospheric jet stream patterns, which are influencing the movement of monsoon clouds. Once these fast-moving winds weaken, monsoon currents are expected to strengthen and advance into Maharashtra, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and adjoining regions.

Weather experts expect the next significant phase of monsoon advancement to begin by the third week of June, bringing relief from intense heat and improving conditions for agriculture across much of India.

The southwest monsoon, which made an early onset over Kerala on June 4, has remained virtually stuck for the past seven days, hovering over parts of Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and West Bengal. Meteorologists say conditions are turning favourable for a fresh advance, with the system likely to cover remaining areas of Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh in the coming days.

While the main monsoon current has been sluggish, pre-monsoon rains and thunderstorms have lashed large parts of the country, bringing both relief from the heat and tragic losses in several states. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a heavy rainfall alert for as many as 22 states and Union Territories.

 Three Dead in UP Weather Incidents

In Uttar Pradesh, strong winds and rain claimed three lives in separate incidents on Thursday. In Chitrakoot, the roof of a newly built ₹4.5 crore auditorium was blown away by powerful gusts. Authorities reported damage to trees, tin sheds and boundary walls in several districts including Etawah, Sitapur and Firozabad.

Local officials said rescue and relief teams have been deployed in the affected areas. Power supply was also disrupted in many places due to fallen trees and poles.

 Child Killed in Punjab Dust Storm

Punjab too witnessed tragedy when a nine-year-old child died in Mansa after an iron gate collapsed on him during a strong dust storm. Several other parts of the state reported minor injuries and property damage from the squall.

In Rajasthan, strong winds affected normal life while two flights were diverted from Delhi due to poor visibility and adverse weather. Markets in smaller towns wore a deserted look as people stayed indoors during the evening hours.

 Heavy Rain Alert Across 22 States

According to the IMD, a yellow alert for rainfall has been sounded across almost the entire country, with Gujarat remaining the only exception. States including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, and those in the northeast are expected to receive widespread showers in the next two days.

Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal districts of Kerala and Karnataka. Thunderstorms accompanied by strong winds reaching 50-70 kmph are forecast over Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh on June 12 and 13. Hailstorms may also occur in parts of western UP, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir.

 Lingering Heat Despite Rains

Despite the monsoon-related activity, day temperatures continued to soar above 40°C in eight states. Bathinda in Punjab recorded the highest temperature in the country at 46.2°C on Thursday. Other high readings included 45.9°C in Sri Ganganagar, 45.5°C in Brahmapuri and 45.4°C in Banda.

Meteorologists noted that such contrast between heavy local rains and extreme heat in neighbouring areas is not uncommon during the transition phase of the monsoon.

 Monsoon Progress So Far

The southwest monsoon entered the country through Kerala and quickly advanced into parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra and the northeast by June 6. However, its further northward push has been stalled over Chennai, Harnai in Maharashtra and Siliguri in West Bengal for nearly a week.

Sources familiar with the weather patterns said favourable atmospheric conditions are building up and the monsoon is expected to gain momentum soon. Once it advances, it is likely to cover most of central and northern India in the coming weeks.

 Ground Reality and Public Impact

In Bihar, continuous rain has left many low-lying areas waterlogged, affecting daily commuters and farmers preparing for the kharif season. In Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, farmers welcomed the showers but also worried about damage to standing crops from strong winds and hail.

Delhi and surrounding areas saw intermittent rain and thunderstorms, bringing some respite from the scorching heat but also causing traffic snarls during the evening peak hours.

Officials have advised people to avoid venturing out during thunderstorms and to stay away from open fields and water bodies. Farmers have been asked to secure their livestock and newly transplanted paddy.

 Outlook for Next Few Days

The IMD has forecast continued thunderstorm activity over large parts of north and central India on June 12 and 13. Heavy spells are expected in Bihar, Jharkhand and parts of Odisha. Isolated hailstorms may hit Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha region.

As the monsoon finally gathers pace, experts are watching closely to see whether the stalled system can make up for the lost time. Timely and well-distributed rainfall is crucial for agriculture across the rain-fed regions of the country.

For now, the focus remains on managing the immediate impact of pre-monsoon fury while preparing for the full arrival of the seasonal rains.