Despite the current slowdown, meteorologists remain optimistic that conditions could become favorable for the monsoon to advance again within the next 4–5 days, with progress likely resuming between June 21 and June 23.

Third Consecutive Year of June Slowdown

The western branch of the monsoon has faced interruptions in recent years as well. In 2024, its advance slowed for about 8–9 days during the second week of June. In 2025, it remained nearly stationary along the Maharashtra coast for almost three weeks.

Weather experts note that such pauses do not necessarily indicate a weak monsoon season. Instead, rainfall often becomes concentrated into fewer days, resulting in more intense downpours when weather systems become active.

Why Has the Monsoon Stalled?

Meteorologists attribute the slowdown primarily to the delayed activation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a crucial weather system that normally shifts northward by mid-June and helps draw moisture-laden winds toward India.

Satellite observations from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also suggest that El Niño conditions are beginning to develop, which can lead to prolonged dry spells and uneven rainfall distribution across the country.

While thunderstorm activity remains active over eastern India, cloud cover has been relatively weak across Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and parts of western India, slowing the monsoon's progress.

Monsoon Progress So Far

After arriving in Kerala on June 4, the southwest monsoon advanced rapidly through 19 states within 14 days. However, it has remained stalled near Bhadrachalam in Telangana for the past week.

As a result, monsoon rains have been delayed in several regions, including Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, and parts of central India, where farmers are eagerly awaiting widespread rainfall for sowing activities.

Pre-Monsoon Activity Continues

Even as the monsoon remains stalled, pre-monsoon showers have been reported in several states, including:

• Madhya Pradesh
• Uttar Pradesh
• Bihar
• Rajasthan
• Himachal Pradesh
• Chhattisgarh

Heavy rainfall affected parts of Bihar on Wednesday, while strong winds caused localized damage in Rajasthan, including uprooted trees and collapsed structures in Jaipur and Udaipur.

Heatwave Conditions Persist

The delayed monsoon has allowed heatwave conditions to continue across large parts of the country. Temperatures exceeded 40°C in several cities across:

• Uttar Pradesh
• Madhya Pradesh
• Bihar
• Jharkhand
• Odisha
• Telangana
• Andhra Pradesh
• Maharashtra

The highest temperature recorded in the country was 45°C in Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh.

Rainfall Forecast

June 19

• Rain likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal and Sikkim.
• Heavy rainfall expected in parts of Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karnataka.
• Thunderstorms and gusty winds likely in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

June 20

• Heavy rain expected in Sikkim, North Bengal, Assam and Meghalaya.
• Thunderstorms with strong winds likely in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
• Rainfall activity may continue in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

When Will the Monsoon Advance Again?

According to IMD, the current pause is linked to upper-atmospheric jet stream patterns, which are influencing the movement of monsoon clouds. Once these fast-moving winds weaken, monsoon currents are expected to strengthen and advance into Maharashtra, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and adjoining regions.

Weather experts expect the next significant phase of monsoon advancement to begin by the third week of June, bringing relief from intense heat and improving conditions for agriculture across much of India.