Global crude oil prices have cooled down to the level seen just before the US-Iran conflict erupted, offering some hope for lower fuel costs in India, though experts say common people may have to wait till Dussehra for any real relief at petrol pumps.

On Thursday, benchmark Brent crude settled around $72 per barrel — almost the same as $72.29 recorded on February 27, a day before the conflict began. The easing comes after the US-Iran agreement on June 17, partial lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and gradual normalisation of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Officials said nearly 80 vessels have passed through the strategic waterway since Monday. While this marks improvement, the daily average is still lower than the pre-war figure of over 100 ships.

Energy expert Narendra Taneja said that despite the fall in international crude prices, petrol and diesel rates in India are unlikely to drop immediately. “The fuel we are buying at pumps right now was made from crude oil purchased when rates were hovering around $110-125 per barrel for Indian refiners,” he explained.

It takes roughly 75-80 days for fresh crude to reach petrol pumps. Loading at source ports takes 15-20 days, transportation to Indian ports another 55-60 days, followed by refining and distribution. Only after this cycle will the benefit of cheaper crude reflect at outlets.

Oil marketing companies are currently incurring losses of around ₹7.5 per litre on petrol and diesel. The government had earlier reduced excise duty by ₹10 per litre, which provided some buffer. Companies are expected to first recover part of their losses before passing on the benefits to consumers.

Taneja added that some relief could begin by the end of August or early September, with more noticeable cuts possibly around Dussehra. “I don’t see crude prices rising sharply in the near future, so the downward trend should hold,” he noted.

The development has brought cautious optimism among industry watchers. Lower global crude not only helps reduce India’s import bill but also supports the broader economy by checking inflation. However, the lag in transmission of prices remains a key challenge for policymakers and consumers alike.

Further movement in fuel prices will also depend on how quickly shipping through Hormuz returns to normal and any fresh geopolitical triggers. For now, the government and oil companies are monitoring the situation closely.

As households continue to feel the pinch of high fuel costs, many are hoping the expected relief materialises sooner rather than later, especially ahead of the festive season.