The projections reportedly estimate that India may secure around 32 medals across Olympic and para-sport events combined, including only seven gold medals. If that prediction proves accurate, it would represent a significant decline compared to the country's performances over the last two decades, during which India consistently emerged as one of the leading nations at the Commonwealth Games.

One of the biggest surprises in the assessment is the position of Olympic and world champion Neeraj Chopra.

Despite being India's most successful track-and-field athlete and a former Commonwealth Games gold medallist, Chopra has reportedly not been identified as a clear favourite for gold in Glasgow. The projection reflects growing concerns over the increasingly competitive field in men's javelin throw rather than any doubt about his credentials.

Chopra won gold at the 2018 Commonwealth Games and later became India's first Olympic athletics champion. However, officials tracking international performances believe the challenge in Glasgow could be tougher than in previous editions. Pakistan's Arshad Nadeem, who has emerged as one of the world's leading javelin throwers, is expected to be among the strongest contenders. Australian athletes, including Cameron McIntyre, are also being viewed as potential medal threats.

The concerns surrounding India's projected medal tally extend well beyond individual athletes.

A major reason for the anticipated decline is the composition of the Glasgow 2026 sports programme itself.

Several disciplines that have traditionally contributed heavily to India's medal count will not be part of the Games. Shooting, wrestling and badminton—sports that have consistently delivered podium finishes for India—have been excluded from the Glasgow programme. Their absence is being viewed as a significant blow to India's medal prospects.

The impact becomes clearer when recent results are examined.

At the Birmingham Commonwealth Games in 2022, India won 61 medals. Around half of those medals came from sports that are not scheduled to feature in Glasgow. Disciplines such as shooting, wrestling, badminton, table tennis, hockey, squash and cricket have either been removed or are not part of the reduced programme.

Glasgow 2026 will feature only 10 sports compared with 19 in Birmingham, dramatically reducing opportunities for countries that rely on a broad range of medal-winning disciplines.

Sports administrators believe this structural change alone could lead to a substantial fall in India's overall tally.

Performance concerns in certain events have added to the uncertainty.

Boxing remains one of India's traditional strengths, with athletes such as Lovlina Borgohain expected to challenge for medals. However, recent performances have not always matched expectations, prompting a more cautious outlook from analysts preparing medal forecasts.

Similar questions exist around several other established Indian athletes. While many remain capable of winning medals, internal assessments suggest that predicting gold medals has become increasingly difficult due to stronger global competition and fluctuating form.

Another challenge is the nature of the sports that remain on the programme.

Swimming, cycling, judo, netball and gymnastics are among the disciplines where India has historically struggled to compete with traditional powerhouses. While Indian athletes have made progress in some of these sports, they have not yet become reliable medal sources at major multi-sport events.

That reality has contributed to fears that India's medal count could fall to levels not seen since the late 1990s.

Despite concerns surrounding Glasgow, sports officials remain optimistic about the long-term picture.

Attention is already turning toward the 2030 Commonwealth Games, which India is expected to host in Ahmedabad. Early discussions suggest the event could feature between 15 and 17 sports, potentially allowing the return of shooting, wrestling, badminton and other disciplines where India traditionally excels.

Such an expansion would significantly improve India's medal prospects and could transform the country into one of the dominant forces of the Games once again.

For now, however, Glasgow 2026 presents a very different challenge. With fewer events, stronger competition and several medal-rich sports absent from the programme, India may be forced to rely on a smaller group of elite performers to avoid its weakest Commonwealth Games performance in nearly 28 years.