Seven years after the abrogation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories, the debate has shifted from constitutional legality to the long-term impact on security and stability in the region.

While the Supreme Court upheld the Centre's decision in December 2023, questions continue over whether the move has delivered on its core promises of reducing terrorism, restoring peace and creating conditions for sustained development.

Former Northern Army Commander Lt Gen (Retd) Raj Shukla believes the security situation has improved significantly, although he cautions that the threat posed by Pakistan-backed terrorism has not disappeared.

Terror Ecosystem Weakened

According to Lt Gen Shukla, one of the biggest outcomes of the abrogation has been the weakening of the financial and political networks that previously supported militancy in Jammu and Kashmir.

He said the constitutional changes disrupted several mechanisms that had enabled separatist and terror-linked activities over the years. However, he stressed that the ecosystem has been weakened—not eliminated.

The former Army commander noted that Pakistan continues to rely on proxy warfare as a key component of its security strategy against India, despite facing political and economic challenges at home.

Pakistan Still Relies on Proxy War

Lt Gen Shukla argued that Islamabad's overall approach towards Kashmir has remained largely unchanged.

He said the Pakistani military establishment continues to wield significant influence over national security decisions, regardless of changes in civilian governments.

According to him, terrorism remains a central instrument of Pakistan's strategy, with cross-border infiltration and support for militant groups continuing whenever opportunities arise.

Recent terror incidents in districts such as Anantnag and Kulgam, he said, indicate that while militant recruitment and infiltration may have declined compared to previous years, the security challenge is far from over.

New Security Challenges Emerging

Beyond Pakistan, Lt Gen Shukla pointed to broader regional developments that could shape India's future security environment.

He referred to increasing strategic coordination between Pakistan and China, while also highlighting Türkiye's growing engagement in regional affairs.

The retired Army officer also expressed concern over developments in Bangladesh, saying that rising radical elements there could create fresh security challenges along India's eastern frontier.

On the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), however, he suggested that the project has lost momentum due to continuing unrest in Balochistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

Army Presence Still Necessary

Addressing the possibility of reducing troop deployment in Jammu and Kashmir, Lt Gen Shukla said the security situation has not yet reached a stage where the Army's role can be substantially scaled back.

He estimated that the existing deployment would likely remain necessary for another four to five years until the situation stabilises further.

He also differentiated the issue of statehood from security, describing it primarily as a political decision that could be implemented whenever the Centre considers conditions appropriate.

Focus on Long-Term Stability

Lt Gen Shukla said India should continue strengthening internal security while avoiding excessive strategic focus on Pakistan.

Referring to Operation Sindoor, he said India has demonstrated its willingness to respond firmly to cross-border terrorism and indicated that any future attacks could invite an even stronger response.

According to him, lasting peace in Jammu and Kashmir will depend not only on sustained counter-terror operations but also on economic development, political stability, public confidence and preventing new forms of radicalisation.

Seven years after Article 370 was revoked, the security landscape in Jammu and Kashmir has undergone noticeable changes. While violence has reduced in several areas and militant networks have weakened, experts believe maintaining those gains will require continued vigilance alongside efforts to promote governance and development across the region.