The Indian rupee is expected to receive support from regular Reserve Bank of India intervention and reduced expectations of an immediate US interest-rate increase, even as volatile crude-oil prices remain a major risk.

Traders expected the rupee to open in the range of ₹95.14–₹95.16 against the US dollar after closing at ₹95.2075 on Friday.

The currency has recovered during the past two weeks, helped by the RBI’s presence in the foreign-exchange market.

Oil Remains the Biggest Risk

Brent crude was trading near $84.50 a barrel on Monday—below its recent peak of approximately $100 but still vulnerable to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

India imports most of its crude-oil requirements. An extended rise in energy prices can increase the country’s import bill, weaken the rupee and add to inflationary pressures.

Expectations concerning the US Federal Reserve have also shifted after data showed that the American economy lost 23,000 jobs in July. The probability of a rate increase at the next meeting consequently declined.

Inflation Data Due This Week

India’s July consumer-inflation figures are scheduled for release on August 12, followed by wholesale-inflation data on August 14.

The numbers will influence expectations about whether the RBI can maintain its current policy rate or may eventually need to respond to renewed price pressures.