Prospects for ending the US–Iran war have dimmed after new attacks on commercial shipping and a warning from Tehran that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until Washington accepts its conditions.

The escalation affects two of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints: Hormuz, the gateway for a major share of global oil and liquefied natural gas, and Bab el-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the route towards the Suez Canal.

In the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, four crew members were killed in a suspected Houthi attack on the Egyptian-owned cargo vessel Tihamah, Yemen’s Transport Ministry said. Three of those killed were Pakistani and one was Indonesian. Two Yemeni rescuers were killed when the vessel came under another strike during the emergency response, according to Yemen’s coast guard.

Ten people were reported injured. The deaths would be the first fatalities caused by a Houthi attack on shipping since the latest Iran war began on February 28.

US disables vessel in Gulf of Oman

In a separate incident, the US military said a Navy MH-60 helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles at the Panama-flagged Vela Nova, damaging its steering equipment. US Central Command alleged that the ship ignored warnings to stop violating a naval blockade on Iranian ports.

Maritime sources told Reuters that the vessel was struck off Pakistan while travelling into the Gulf of Oman. The US account and any allegation concerning the ship’s intended destination should remain attributed to American authorities until independently verified.

The operations show how quickly the conflict is spreading into civilian shipping lanes. Merchant crews face growing danger, while shipping companies must weigh longer routes, higher insurance premiums and possible delays.

Iran sets conditions for reopening Hormuz

Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen unless the United States released frozen Iranian assets and supported an end to regional conflicts, including those in Lebanon and Gaza.

His statement followed mediation efforts involving Pakistan and Qatar that had briefly raised hopes of a possible agreement. The tougher rhetoric from Tehran and Washington now suggests that a quick settlement is unlikely.

US President Donald Trump has alternated between saying a deal is close and threatening stronger action. Iran, meanwhile, says it will maintain control of Hormuz until its demands are addressed. Thousands of people have been killed since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran in February, according to Reuters.

Markets reacted to the uncertainty. Brent crude settled at $88.91 a barrel on Tuesday, while US crude rose to $83.20. Prices climbed further in Asian trading on Wednesday as investors assessed the risk of prolonged disruption.

Why India must watch closely

India imports most of the crude oil it consumes and depends heavily on sea routes through West Asia. A sustained closure or severe restriction at Hormuz could increase energy costs, weaken the rupee and raise transport and manufacturing expenses.

Disruption in Bab el-Mandeb forces many vessels to avoid the Suez route and sail around southern Africa. The longer journey increases fuel use, freight rates and delivery times for Indian trade with Europe.

The crisis therefore has consequences beyond the battlefield. It can affect petrol and diesel prices, airline costs, inflation and the availability of imported goods. The impact will depend on how long the disruption lasts and whether alternative supplies and routes can absorb the pressure.

Diplomatic efforts continue, but the combination of deadly attacks, blockades and hardened conditions has made the risk of wider escalation particularly high.