Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a stronger political challenge ahead of the country's upcoming elections, with a new opinion poll showing former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party ahead of Netanyahu's Likud.

According to a survey published by Zman Israel on Thursday, Yashar is projected to win 25 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while Likud is estimated to secure 21 seats.

The four-seat gap marks a notable change from several recent surveys, in which Eisenkot's party had maintained only a narrow advantage over Likud. In some polls, the two parties had been tied or separated by just one or two seats.

The election is scheduled for October 27, leaving both camps with roughly two months to consolidate support and build potential governing alliances.

Majority Still Out of Reach

Despite Yashar emerging as the largest individual party in the latest survey, Eisenkot would still face a difficult path to forming a government.

Israel's Knesset has 120 seats, and a governing coalition requires at least 61 seats for a parliamentary majority.

The poll projects that the broader anti-Netanyahu Change Bloc could win around 58 seats, leaving it three seats short of the majority mark.

Parties supporting Netanyahu are projected to collectively secure approximately 50 seats, while Arab parties could hold around 12 seats.

The Ram Party and Hadash-Ta'al are each projected to win six seats, according to the survey.

The figures indicate that neither major political camp currently appears capable of forming a government independently, making coalition negotiations likely to play a decisive role after the election.

Eisenkot Pushes Largest-Party Claim

Eisenkot has previously argued that the leader of the largest party within the anti-Netanyahu bloc should receive the opportunity to form the next government.

His position could become important if Yashar maintains its lead and emerges as the largest opposition party after the election.

The question of who would become prime minister has already created tensions within the opposition camp.

Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid has indicated that it would not stand in the way of efforts to establish an alternative government to Netanyahu. However, when asked whether his party would support Eisenkot as prime minister, Lapid did not provide a definitive answer.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is also considered a potential contender for the top post.

Bennett Example Remains Relevant

The debate over who should lead a coalition has historical significance in Israeli politics.

Bennett became prime minister in 2021 despite his party holding only seven seats in the Knesset. He led a broad coalition involving parties with significantly different political positions before his government ended in 2022.

Eisenkot's argument that the leader of the largest party should get the first opportunity to form a government is therefore significant in the context of the opposition's current political calculations.

Whether other anti-Netanyahu parties would ultimately support an Eisenkot-led government remains uncertain.

Security Concerns Grow

Alongside the political contest, security concerns surrounding Eisenkot have also emerged.

A report by Channel 12 said there were indications of Iranian efforts to target Israeli political figures. While Netanyahu already receives government-provided security protection, Eisenkot does not currently have the same formal entitlement.

His growing political profile has therefore raised questions about his personal security as the election campaign intensifies.

Israel's internal security agency, Shin Bet, is reportedly considering providing Eisenkot with armed protection.

Election Campaign Set to Intensify

The latest polling has added uncertainty to an already competitive political landscape.

A four-seat lead for Yashar over Likud could strengthen Eisenkot's position within the opposition, but the figures also show that the anti-Netanyahu camp remains below the 61-seat threshold required to govern.

For Netanyahu, retaining Likud as the largest party would remain crucial to his efforts to build another governing coalition.

With the election approaching, the contest is likely to focus not only on which party wins the most seats but also on which political groups can assemble the alliances required to cross the majority threshold.

The final outcome could therefore depend as much on coalition arithmetic as on the performance of individual parties.