Nepal is seeking to shift the conversation from humanitarian aid to climate compensation after deadly flash floods, with officials arguing that countries responsible for a large share of global emissions should help meet the cost of recovery.

Nepal is seeking climate compensation rather than conventional humanitarian aid after devastating flash floods swept through parts of the country, with Foreign Affairs Minister Shisir Khanal arguing that major greenhouse-gas emitters should bear responsibility for losses suffered by vulnerable nations.

The demand follows the August 26 disaster, when a massive collapse of ice, rock and mountain debris from the Langtang Lirung area triggered a powerful surge of water and debris into river systems in central Nepal. The resulting floods destroyed homes and roads and caused extensive damage to infrastructure.

Nepal has estimated the cost of recovery at around $5 billion, a figure officials have described as an early estimate as the scale of destruction continues to emerge.

Nepal shifts from aid to climate justice

Khanal said Nepal would no longer view post-disaster assistance simply through the lens of humanitarian aid. Instead, Kathmandu wants the international response to focus on “justice and compensation”, arguing that Nepal contributes very little to global greenhouse-gas emissions while facing severe consequences from climate-related risks.

He said the disaster was unlike a conventional flood, describing the scale and speed of the event as unprecedented in Nepal's living memory.

Khanal argued that China, the United States and India have a particular responsibility because of their significant contributions to global emissions. According to him, climate-vulnerable countries such as Nepal should receive compensation for losses associated with the global climate crisis.

Scientists urge caution over climate link

Nepal's position comes as scientists continue examining the precise causes of the disaster.

The file's reporting notes that experts have said it is too early to firmly establish a direct link between the specific flash floods and climate change. However, researchers have pointed to growing climate-related vulnerability across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region.

Nepal's climate change chief Maheshwar Dhakal said human-caused climate change had been a factor, while Prime Minister Balendra “Balen” Shah also highlighted the increasing risks facing the Himalayan region as the climate changes.

Experts have cautioned that the Himalayas are already naturally vulnerable to earthquakes, landslides, avalanches and flash floods. Climate change may be increasing the underlying vulnerability of the region, rather than being established as the sole cause of an individual disaster.

Himalayan infrastructure under scrutiny

The disaster has also renewed scrutiny of the rapid expansion of infrastructure across the Himalayas.

The source notes that dams, tunnels, highways, railways and bridges have been cited by environmental experts as possible factors affecting the region's fragile ecosystems. However, it also makes clear that no direct link has yet been established between such construction activity and the August 26 disaster.

Large infrastructure projects in both China and India have consequently become part of the wider debate over Himalayan environmental vulnerability.

Reconstruction bill could reach $5 billion

Nepal's recovery requirements are expected to be substantial. Officials have put the initial reconstruction cost at around $5 billion, although Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle reportedly indicated that the figure could represent only an early estimate.

The economic consequences could extend beyond physical reconstruction. Tourism, one of Nepal's major sources of foreign exchange, is also expected to face disruption following the disaster.

For Kathmandu, the immediate challenge is rebuilding communities and infrastructure while dealing with the humanitarian consequences of the floods. At the diplomatic level, however, the disaster has opened a broader debate over who should pay for climate-related losses in vulnerable countries.

Nepal's push for compensation is therefore likely to form part of a wider international discussion over climate responsibility, adaptation financing and the growing costs of disasters in climate-vulnerable regions.

Scientists from the HiRISK collective say satellite imagery showed several signs of glacier and slope instability days before the avalanche that triggered the devastating Nepal-Tibet flood.

 Warning signs of the devastating Nepal-Tibet flash flood may have been visible days before the disaster, according to scientists who analysed satellite imagery of the glacier and mountain slope involved in the avalanche.

Scientists from the HiRISK collective said satellite images showed what they described as “pre-event indications” of the avalanche, including changes in the glacier and surrounding terrain.

The findings have raised questions over whether these signals could have been detected and communicated to authorities early enough to warn communities living downstream.

Satellite images showed changes before disaster

According to the scientists, satellite imagery from the days before the flood indicated that water movement within the glacier had accelerated.

They said the change could have pointed to increasing instability inside the glacier and the surrounding rock.

Images captured two days before the disaster reportedly showed two additional signs. Scientists observed that meltwater had turned visibly brown and identified a crack developing in the surrounding bedrock slope.

Individually, such changes do not necessarily indicate that an avalanche or flood is imminent. But researchers said that, when considered together, they suggested increasing instability in the glacier and mountain slope.

Langtang Lirung collapse triggered avalanche

On August 26, a large section of the northern face of 7,234-metre Langtang Lirung mountain collapsed in Nepal.

The mountainside fell into the valley along with a substantial section of the glacier above it. The resulting rock-and-ice avalanche generated a massive debris flow that moved downstream and contributed to flooding across the Bhote Koshi-Trishuli-Narayani river system and the Nepal-Tibet border region.

The disaster has caused extensive destruction and a significant loss of life.

The latest figures cited in the source report put the death toll at 1,127, while 4,858 people remain missing.

Could earlier detection have helped?

The scientists stressed that identifying the satellite signals retrospectively does not mean the disaster could certainly have been predicted.

However, they said systematic monitoring of glaciers and unstable mountain slopes could help improve future early-warning systems.

The HiRISK assessment suggested that communities farther downstream could potentially have benefited from 10 minutes or more of warning time. Such advance notice, combined with an effective warning and evacuation system, could potentially have allowed people in vulnerable areas to move to safety.

This distinction is important: the satellite observations indicate that physical changes were detectable, but they do not establish that authorities could have confidently predicted the exact timing or scale of the avalanche before it occurred.

Scientists call for AI-assisted monitoring

Jakob Steiner, a geologist and co-author of the assessment, said AI-assisted satellite monitoring could help identify potential hazards across the vast and difficult terrain of High Mountain Asia.

Steiner told ABC News that there are thousands of glaciers across the region and that monitoring them would require scalable technological solutions.

The findings therefore point to a broader challenge for Himalayan disaster preparedness: detecting warning signals is only useful if those signals can be rapidly analysed, verified and converted into actionable alerts for people at risk.

For Nepal and other countries exposed to glacier-related hazards, the disaster could strengthen the case for combining satellite monitoring, AI-based analysis and local early-warning systems to reduce response times in future emergencies.