Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is seeking a route to power in Saxony-Anhalt after securing a historic victory in the eastern state election. The party won 39 of the 83 seats, falling three seats short of an outright majority.

The AfD has now claimed that some lawmakers from Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are considering supporting or joining its side. However, there is no independent confirmation that CDU legislators have agreed to defect, making the claim a central point of uncertainty in the government-formation process.

AfD Wins Historic Mandate

The AfD secured 43.8% of the vote, more than doubling its support compared with the previous Saxony-Anhalt election. The CDU finished a distant second with 17.2%, while the Left, SPD and Greens each won eight seats. The BSW secured five seats.

The result represents the strongest state-election performance yet for the AfD and puts the party within striking distance of leading a state government for the first time in post-war Germany.

AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund has said he wants to become state premier if his party can secure a workable majority.

CDU Defections Remain Unclear

AfD leaders have intensified their appeal to conservative lawmakers following the election. National co-leader Tino Chrupalla urged CDU legislators to help create what he described as a centre-right conservative majority.

Senior AfD politician Maximilian Krah has separately claimed that disgruntled CDU politicians could consider switching sides. Alice Weidel has also suggested that CDU lawmakers may be reconsidering their position.

However, these remain AfD claims rather than confirmed defections. Reports have not established that any CDU legislator has formally committed to supporting the far-right party.

Merz Rejects AfD Cooperation

The election has placed additional pressure on Friedrich Merz and the CDU. Merz has ruled out cooperation with the AfD despite acknowledging the seriousness of the result for his party.

The CDU's poor showing has intensified debate over the political strategy known as the “firewall”, under which mainstream German parties refuse coalition cooperation with the AfD.

The CDU won only 15 seats in the new state parliament, compared with 40 in 2021, according to preliminary official results.

Firewall Faces New Test

Germany's firewall has traditionally prevented the AfD from entering state or federal governments despite its growing electoral strength.

The Saxony-Anhalt result is testing that strategy more severely than previous elections because the AfD has emerged as the largest parliamentary group and needs only a small number of additional votes to gain governing power.

Mainstream parties have again rejected formal cooperation with the AfD, which German intelligence authorities have classified as extremist. The party rejects that designation.

BSW Opens Another Route

The AfD may not necessarily need CDU defections. The populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which won five seats, has indicated that it could help an AfD-led government.

BSW leader Sahra Wagenknecht criticised attempts to construct another firewall against the AfD. The two parties share positions on immigration and Germany's support for Ukraine, although they come from different political traditions.

One possible route could involve BSW abstaining in a premier's election, potentially allowing an AfD-led minority government. Such an arrangement, however, would remain politically fragile.

Germany’s Political Landscape Shifts

The election has become a wider warning for Germany's established parties. About 83,000 former CDU voters moved to the AfD, while the CDU's vote share almost halved.

The result reflects dissatisfaction in parts of eastern Germany over economic conditions, migration and the performance of the federal government. It also gives the AfD a powerful argument ahead of Germany's next federal election, scheduled for 2029.

AfD leaders have already presented the victory as evidence that the party can move beyond its traditional strongholds.

What Happens Next

The immediate challenge is whether AfD leader Siegmund can secure enough support to command the state parliament. With 39 seats, the party needs at least three additional votes for the 42-seat threshold.

Whether those votes come from CDU lawmakers, BSW or another arrangement remains uncertain. Officially, the CDU continues to reject cooperation with the AfD, meaning the alleged internal rebellion has yet to translate into a confirmed political agreement.

The outcome nevertheless marks a major test for Germany's post-war political consensus. If the AfD succeeds in entering government in Saxony-Anhalt, it would represent a significant breakthrough for the far right and could reshape the debate over the firewall across Germany.