India nearly doubled its proposed coal mining capacity in 2025, pushing the country's planned capacity to 638 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) from 329 MTPA a year earlier, according to data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

The increase of around 94 per cent made India the biggest contributor to the expansion of the global pipeline of proposed coal mining projects. Globally, proposed coal mine capacity rose by about 11 per cent year-on-year to 2,521 MTPA in 2025.

The figures come as India continues to expand renewable energy capacity while relying heavily on coal to meet rising electricity demand and reduce dependence on imported fuel.

India Drives Global Increase

GEM's latest research identified 837 coal mine proposals worldwide, representing an increase of nearly 12 per cent from 2024.

The data is based on GEM's Global Coal Mine Tracker, which monitors coal projects at different stages, including proposed, permitted, under construction and operating mines.

India accounted for the largest share of the increase in proposed global coal mining capacity. The expansion is linked to efforts to increase domestic coal production, support electricity generation and industrial activity, and strengthen energy security.

A large portion of India's proposed mining capacity is concentrated in coal-rich states such as Jharkhand and Odisha, which have extensive reserves and established mining infrastructure.

Coal Remains Key to Power

Despite rapid growth in renewable energy, coal remains a major source of electricity generation in India.

Coal-fired power plants continue to provide baseload electricity and help meet periods of high demand when renewable generation is unavailable or fluctuates.

India's electricity consumption is also expected to grow rapidly over the coming years. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), electricity demand in the country is projected to increase by an average of around 6.4 per cent annually through 2030.

Renewable energy is expected to meet a substantial portion of additional electricity demand, but coal is still projected to contribute significantly to the remaining requirement.

Global Coal Pipeline Expands

The increase in India's proposed capacity comes against a broader expansion in planned coal mining worldwide.

China, India, Australia, Russia and South Africa account for more than 90 per cent of proposed global coal mining capacity, according to GEM.

China alone accounts for around 1,329 MTPA, making it the largest contributor to the global pipeline.

Thermal coal intended for power generation accounts for roughly 70 per cent of proposed capacity, while metallurgical coal used in steel production is becoming an increasingly important part of new mining plans.

New Mine Openings Decline

GEM's data also shows a contrasting trend. While proposed capacity has increased, the amount of new coal mining capacity being opened has declined.

New mine capacity openings have fallen by more than 50 per cent since 2024, even as around 700 MTPA of capacity remains under construction globally.

Once completed, these projects could support coal production for decades, raising concerns about whether some mines could become financially unviable as energy systems shift towards lower-carbon sources.

Coal Demand Outlook

The IEA expects India to remain one of the world's major drivers of coal demand growth through 2030.

Its Coal 2025 outlook projects Indian coal demand to increase by an average of around 3 per cent annually, adding more than 200 million tonnes of demand by 2030.

Globally, however, the outlook is different. The IEA expects coal demand to plateau during the middle of the decade and gradually decline by 2030 as renewable energy, nuclear power and natural gas take a larger share of electricity generation.

Global coal consumption in 2030 is projected to be around 3 per cent lower than 2025 levels.

Energy Security vs Climate Goals

India's expanding coal mining pipeline highlights the challenge of balancing energy security with long-term climate objectives.

The country is rapidly increasing renewable generation capacity, but electricity demand is growing at a pace that makes coal difficult to phase out quickly.

Domestic coal production is therefore being expanded to ensure adequate fuel availability for power plants and reduce exposure to international coal prices and supply disruptions.

At the same time, a large expansion of mining capacity could create financial risks if coal demand grows more slowly than expected.

Risk of Future Overcapacity

The difference between planned mining capacity and long-term demand projections could become an important issue for the global coal industry.

If renewable energy deployment accelerates faster than expected, or if coal demand begins declining earlier, some proposed mines could struggle to find buyers or operate profitably.

For India, the immediate priority remains ensuring reliable electricity and supporting economic growth. But the scale of the proposed coal pipeline also means future investment decisions will need to account for changing energy markets and the country's long-term transition towards cleaner sources.

In a major push towards energy security and cleaner fuel, the Union Cabinet has approved the ₹23,731 crore National Circular Bioenergy Scheme (GOBARdhan), a 10-year programme aimed at significantly increasing domestic compressed biogas (CBG) production and reducing India's dependence on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The scheme, which will run from FY2027 to FY2036, seeks to transform agricultural residue, cattle dung, municipal organic waste and other biomass into compressed biogas, while strengthening the country's renewable energy ecosystem and promoting a circular economy.

The approval comes amid growing concerns over global energy supply disruptions, particularly following geopolitical tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of India's LNG imports passes. India currently imports nearly 50 per cent of its natural gas requirement, making energy diversification a strategic priority.

Reducing Import Dependence

Announcing the Cabinet decision, Union Information and Broadcasting Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said domestically produced compressed biogas would play a crucial role in reducing reliance on imported natural gas and improving India's long-term energy resilience.

According to government estimates, the scheme could help save more than ₹40,000 crore in foreign exchange over the next decade by replacing imported LNG with domestically produced biofuel. It is also expected to create a bioenergy industry valued at nearly ₹75,000 crore.

Six-Pillar Strategy

The GOBARdhan scheme has been designed around six key components to accelerate the growth of India's compressed biogas sector.

A major feature is the introduction of mandatory blending targets for City Gas Distribution (CGD) companies. Under the roadmap, compressed biogas blending will be fixed at 3 per cent in FY2027, 4 per cent in FY2028, and 5 per cent from FY2029 onwards for both transport fuel and piped natural gas supplied to households.

To improve investor confidence, the government has also introduced an administered price of ₹2,110 per million British thermal units (MMBTU), providing producers with predictable long-term pricing.

Financial Support for Projects

The scheme provides substantial financial assistance for establishing new compressed biogas plants. Eligible greenfield projects will receive capital support of up to ₹2 crore per tonne per day of installed capacity, while existing plants expanding operations will also qualify for assistance.

In addition, financial support will be provided for developing pipeline connectivity between compressed biogas plants and existing gas distribution networks, helping producers integrate with the national gas infrastructure.

A dedicated credit guarantee mechanism will improve financing access for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), while a Challenge Fund will support district-level feedstock aggregation, technology adoption and project development.

Waste-to-Wealth Initiative

The programme aims to utilise agricultural residue, cattle dung, sugar industry waste such as press mud, municipal organic waste and other biodegradable materials for biogas production.

Apart from generating clean fuel, the initiative is expected to improve waste management, reduce stubble burning, increase production of organic manure and create additional income opportunities for farmers, rural entrepreneurs and local communities.

The government believes the initiative will also contribute to lowering greenhouse gas emissions by converting organic waste into renewable energy instead of allowing it to decompose or be burnt in open fields.

Building on Existing Progress

The new scheme builds upon the government's Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation (SATAT)initiative, under which more than 200 compressed biogas plants have already been commissioned across India.

Officials expect the new policy framework to accelerate investment in the bioenergy sector by ensuring stable demand, better financing options and long-term commercial viability for compressed biogas producers.

With growing global uncertainty over energy supplies and increasing emphasis on clean energy transition, the Cabinet's approval of the GOBARdhan scheme marks another significant step in India's efforts to strengthen energy security while promoting sustainable waste management and rural economic development.

The new US-Saudi nuclear deal makes sense at one level. Saudi Arabia wants to diversify its energy mix, develop technical expertise and reduce the amount of oil and gas it burns to generate electricity. The United States wants American companies, rather than Chinese or Russian suppliers, to shape the kingdom’s civilian nuclear programme.

The agreement signed on July 22 establishes a legal framework for long-term nuclear cooperation. The US Department of Energy says it will improve access for American companies and support a multi-billion-dollar partnership while maintaining high standards of safety and non-proliferation.

Those are legitimate objectives. Saudi Arabia has the right to pursue civilian nuclear energy, and Washington has a strong interest in keeping the programme connected to American technology, training and oversight.

The Core Contradiction

The difficulty lies not in the construction of nuclear reactors but in the possible transfer of uranium-enrichment and spent-fuel reprocessing capabilities.

Both technologies have civilian applications. They can also produce material relevant to a nuclear weapons programme. This is why many countries operating nuclear power plants import reactor fuel rather than enrich uranium domestically.

Reports indicate that the deal creates a pathway for Saudi enrichment after a joint technical study. It reportedly does not contain the “gold standard” prohibition on enrichment and reprocessing accepted by the United Arab Emirates in its nuclear agreement with Washington.

That difference cannot be treated as a technical footnote. It changes the regional significance of the entire agreement.

Safeguards Must Be Public

The Trump administration says a bilateral safeguards agreement will prevent misuse. Yet the full documents have not been published, making independent assessment difficult.

More troublingly, reports say Saudi Arabia has not accepted the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Additional Protocol under the agreement. The protocol gives inspectors wider access and stronger tools to investigate undeclared nuclear activity.

A private bilateral arrangement may supplement international inspections, but it should not replace them. Nuclear safeguards must remain credible even when governments change, diplomatic relations deteriorate or regional tensions escalate.

Washington cannot simply ask the world to trust assurances that have not been subjected to transparent scrutiny.

Iran Double Standard

The timing makes the deal particularly sensitive. The United States has repeatedly identified Iran’s enrichment programme as a major security threat. It now risks appearing to accept similar technology for a close partner while opposing it for an adversary.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are not identical cases. Riyadh remains a US security partner and a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. However, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously said that Saudi Arabia would pursue a nuclear weapon if Iran acquired one. That statement inevitably affects how enrichment on Saudi territory will be viewed.

Non-proliferation rules lose authority when countries believe that strategic alignment, rather than consistent standards, determines who may control sensitive technology.

Commercial Logic Is Real

The economic case should not be dismissed. American companies could gain major contracts for reactors, fuel services, training and long-term maintenance. US participation could also provide Washington with greater visibility into the Saudi programme than it would have under a Chinese or Russian partnership.

Saudi Arabia has alternatives. Companies from China, Russia, South Korea and France have shown interest in its nuclear plans. Rejecting cooperation entirely could push Riyadh towards suppliers that offer weaker transparency or fewer political conditions.

The choice, therefore, is not between a perfect US-controlled programme and no Saudi programme. The real choice is between different models of international involvement.

That strengthens the argument for engagement—but not for lowering safeguards.

What India Should Watch

For India, the US-Saudi nuclear deal carries consequences beyond Washington and Riyadh. India has deep interests across West Asia and benefits from regional stability, predictable energy markets and secure commercial shipping.

A nuclear competition involving Saudi Arabia and Iran would add another layer of risk to an already fragile region. India should therefore support Saudi Arabia’s right to peaceful nuclear energy while favouring uniform, internationally supervised safeguards.

New Delhi should also watch how Washington explains any exception granted to Riyadh. India has consistently defended responsible access to civilian nuclear technology, but responsible access requires credible verification and clear separation between energy programmes and weapons capability.

Congress Must Set Terms

Congress should not reject the agreement merely to deny President Donald Trump a diplomatic victory. Nor should lawmakers approve it simply because it promises contracts for US companies.

They should demand publication of the relevant safeguards, acceptance of inspection measures equivalent to the Additional Protocol, strict limits on enrichment levels and quantities, and a permanent prohibition on producing weapons-grade material.

Any future enrichment facility should operate under continuous international monitoring, with automatic suspension provisions if Saudi Arabia blocks inspections or violates agreed limits.

The US-Saudi nuclear deal could become a model for combining clean energy, commercial cooperation and responsible diplomacy. Without enforceable safeguards, however, it could instead establish a dangerous principle: that sensitive nuclear capabilities are available to countries with sufficient strategic importance.

That is too great a gamble for the Middle East—and for the global non-proliferation system.

Iran Announces New Service Fee Framework for Strait of Hormuz Shipping, Allies May Receive Concessions

Iran has announced plans to introduce a new service fee framework for commercial vessels passing through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, while indicating that countries which supported Tehran during its recent conflict could receive preferential treatment under the proposed system.

The announcement was made by Iran's Ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, during the World Peace Forum in Beijing on Saturday. According to the ambassador, Iran is working in coordination with Oman to establish a long-term mechanism for managing maritime traffic through the narrow waterway, one of the world's most critical energy corridors.

Fazli clarified that the proposed charges would not be imposed as a transit toll but as payment for services provided by Iran in ensuring the safe and efficient movement of ships through the strait.

"As a country where the Hormuz is part of its territorial waters, we will definitely charge service fees," the ambassador said while outlining Tehran's proposal.

According to Iranian officials, the fees would cover a range of maritime services, including navigation security, vessel monitoring, traffic management and measures aimed at addressing the environmental impact created by heavy commercial shipping in the region.

The announcement follows the expiry of a temporary arrangement reached after the recent ceasefire between Iran and the United States. Under that agreement, commercial vessels were permitted to transit the Strait of Hormuz without paying any charges for a period of 60 days. Iranian authorities have not yet specified when the new fee structure will officially come into force.

Beyond the proposed charges, Tehran has also hinted at extending favourable treatment to countries that maintained supportive ties with Iran during the recent hostilities.

"We will definitely consider special treatment for the countries that were friendly to us and specially stood by us during the hard times," Fazli said.

However, Iranian officials have not identified which countries would qualify for such concessions or explained the criteria that would determine eligibility. Details regarding possible fee discounts or operational benefits for these nations have also not been disclosed.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically significant maritime passages in the world. Nearly one-fifth of global crude oil shipments pass through the narrow channel connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Any disruption to shipping through the strait has immediate implications for international energy markets, oil prices and global supply chains.

During the recent conflict in West Asia, commercial movement through the waterway was temporarily disrupted, fuelling concerns over global oil supplies and contributing to a sharp rise in crude prices. The passage resumed normal operations after the ceasefire agreement between Tehran and Washington.

Iran's latest proposal suggests the country is seeking to institutionalise its role in regulating commercial shipping through the strategic waterway while generating revenue from services associated with maritime safety and environmental management.

Industry observers are expected to closely monitor how shipping companies, major oil-importing nations and international maritime organisations respond once the proposed framework is formally implemented. The introduction of service fees could also influence freight costs and operational planning for vessels transiting one of the busiest energy corridors in the world.

For now, Tehran has maintained that the initiative is intended to compensate for services provided rather than restrict international navigation, though further details regarding the structure, pricing and implementation timeline remain awaited.

Indian oil refiners are highly unlikely to aggressively scale up imports of Iranian crude despite Washington’s surprise announcement of a temporary, 60-day sanctions waiver. Market analytics suggest that structural factors—including a highly compressed waiver window, deep systemic payment bottlenecks, and pre-existing long-term supply commitments—will heavily restrict any immediate pivot back to Tehran.

The critical policy update follows a diplomatic easing between the United States and Iran, which opened a brief two-month window for global oil markets. However, energy analysts predict that the policy relaxation will fail to spark a broad-based return of traditional buyers outside of China.

Procurement Windows for August-September Already Sealed

State-run and private domestic refiners typically operate on a highly rigid, forward-looking procurement calendar, finalizing crude cargo slates two to three months in advance.

Sumit Ritolia, a refinery and oil market analyst at commodity intelligence firm Kpler, noted that Indian refiners have already locked in the vast majority of their processing requirements for the immediate future.

"State-run and private refiners are currently sourcing and finalizing cargoes for late August and September. Russian and Middle Eastern grades continue to heavily dominate these purchases, alongside a growing market share for Venezuelan crude," Ritolia told news agency PTI.

While opportunistic buying remains a distinct possibility if Iran undercuts current market rates, the abundant availability of heavily discounted Russian Urals and stable Middle Eastern term contracts reduces the operational urgency for Indian refiners to scramble for Iranian barrels.

Historical Peak: Iran Once Held 11.5% of India’s Crude Basket

The current geopolitical landscape stands in stark contrast to India’s historical trading ties with Tehran. Prior to the severe tightening of Washington's secondary sanctions framework under the Trump administration in 2018, India stood as one of the largest global consumers of Iranian energy.

India's Crude Import Evolution:

├── Pre-May 2019 : Iranian Light & Heavy maxed out at 11.5% of total import basket

├── Post-May 2019: Imports dropped to zero under secondary sanctions pressure

└── 2022–2026    : Void aggressively filled by Russian Urals & US crude grades

The high compatibility of Indian complex refinery configurations with Iranian Light and Iranian Heavy grades, paired with favorable commercial terms such as ultra-low shipping freights and extended credit windows, previously made Tehran an indispensable trading partner. Following the total cessation of imports in May 2019, Indian procurement desks successfully shifted their baseline reliance to the US Gulf Coast and alternative Middle Eastern producers, and more recently, heavily discounted Russian crude.

Deep Discounts Mandatory to Counter Sovereign Risk

Experts emphasize that unless National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) officials offer unprecedented, aggressive price discounts that comfortably offset the compliance and logistical risks of the 60-day window, Indian state refiners will remain on the sidelines.

Apart from the short operational timeframe, establishing clear banking channels for rupee-rial or third-currency clearing mechanisms takes time—a luxury not afforded by a 60-day clock. Consequently, while the diplomatic waiver has technically reopened a closed door for Iranian oil exports, it is unlikely to translate into a flurry of tankers heading toward Indian ports anytime soon.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has unveiled a long-term strategy aimed at ending its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route that handles a significant share of the world's oil and gas exports.

The announcement comes at a time when the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen following a recent agreement between the United States and Iran. However, concerns over future disruptions and potential transit restrictions have prompted the UAE to accelerate efforts to establish alternative trade and energy corridors.

Speaking about the country's plans, UAE Foreign Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi said the objective is to reduce dependence on the Strait to zero through major investments in infrastructure.

Eastern Ports at the Core

Unlike several Gulf nations whose exports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE possesses strategically located ports on its eastern coastline outside the strait. These include Fujairah, Dibba and Khor Fakkan, which continued to facilitate energy exports during periods of regional conflict.

The UAE now plans to significantly expand these facilities and transform them into major hubs for international trade and energy shipments. Officials believe these ports can provide a secure alternative route for exports while reducing exposure to geopolitical risks in the Gulf.

New Pipelines and Rail Links

A key component of the strategy involves the construction of at least two additional oil and gas pipelines connecting production facilities to eastern ports.

The UAE already operates a pipeline that transports crude oil directly to Fujairah, allowing exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed expansion would increase capacity and strengthen the country's energy security.

Authorities are also studying the development of railway infrastructure to support the transportation of energy products and commercial cargo between inland production centers and eastern ports.

Lessons from Regional Conflict

Recent tensions in West Asia highlighted vulnerabilities in regional energy supply chains. Although the UAE managed to maintain exports through its eastern facilities, attacks on infrastructure and growing uncertainty over maritime security accelerated discussions about long-term alternatives.

Officials say the experience exposed logistical gaps and reinforced the need for diversified transport routes. As a result, infrastructure planning has become a strategic priority for the country.

Challenges Remain

Despite progress on the export side, challenges remain for imports. The UAE continues to rely heavily on Jebel Ali Port, one of the world's largest commercial ports located inside the Persian Gulf.

Shifting a substantial portion of import traffic to eastern ports would require major investments and extensive logistical restructuring. Experts note that while the strategy is achievable, it will likely take several years to implement fully.

Strategic Economic Shift

The UAE's plan reflects a broader effort to strengthen economic resilience and safeguard its role as a global trade and energy hub. By expanding alternative transportation corridors and reducing reliance on a single maritime chokepoint, the country aims to protect supply chains, attract investment and maintain stable export operations regardless of future regional developments.

The initiative is expected to play a significant role in shaping the UAE's energy and trade strategy over the coming decade.

A significant diplomatic breakthrough has emerged in the Middle East after the United States and Iran signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at extending the ceasefire between the two countries and creating a pathway toward a comprehensive settlement. The agreement, signed by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, establishes a 60-day framework for negotiations on critical issues including sanctions relief, nuclear restrictions, regional security, and economic reconstruction.

The deal comes after months of tensions that disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, affected global energy markets, and heightened concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme. While both sides have described the agreement as a major step forward, officials have also acknowledged that the memorandum serves as a framework for future negotiations rather than a final settlement.

Under the agreement, military operations between the two sides are to cease immediately, and both countries have pledged to respect each other’s sovereignty and refrain from interference in domestic affairs. A formal negotiation process has now begun, with a target of reaching a final agreement within 60 days, although the timeline can be extended by mutual consent.

Strait of Hormuz Reopening

One of the most consequential elements of the deal concerns the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route through which a substantial share of global oil exports passes.

Iran has committed to facilitating safe passage for commercial vessels, while the United States has agreed to begin lifting restrictions affecting Iranian ports and maritime traffic. Shipping activity is expected to resume gradually as security and logistical measures are implemented.

The agreement also envisages future cooperation between Iran, Oman, and other Gulf nations on managing maritime security in the region.

Nuclear Commitments

A central feature of the memorandum is Iran’s commitment not to acquire nuclear weapons. Both sides have agreed to address Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

According to officials familiar with the negotiations, the current proposal involves downblending enriched uranium rather than destroying it outright. However, the precise technical arrangements remain subject to further talks.

The agreement also requires both countries to maintain the current status of Iran’s nuclear programme while negotiations continue. During this period, Washington has pledged not to impose new sanctions and to provide limited waivers related to oil exports and associated financial services.

Economic Relief and Reconstruction

The memorandum includes provisions for sanctions relief and economic recovery. The United States has agreed in principle to remove economic sanctions, although the timing and sequencing will be negotiated during the next phase of talks.

Another notable provision is a proposed reconstruction and economic development framework worth at least $300 billion. US officials have clarified that Washington is not necessarily committing direct funding but may facilitate investments from regional partners and international stakeholders.

The deal also opens the possibility of releasing frozen Iranian assets, with access tied to compliance and future agreements between the two sides.

Major Issues Still Unresolved

Despite the breakthrough, several difficult questions remain unanswered. Negotiators have yet to finalize the mechanism for handling Iran’s enriched uranium reserves, determine the exact timetable for sanctions removal, and establish how the proposed reconstruction fund will operate.

Regional security concerns also remain contentious. Iran’s relationships with groups such as Hezbollah, its missile programme, and broader regional influence were not fully resolved in the interim agreement. Analysts note that these issues could prove to be the most challenging parts of the upcoming negotiations.

Petroleum ministry says strategic reserves and commercial stocks secure supply as refiners report under-recoveries on petrol, diesel

 India currently holds the equivalent of about 76–80 days of fuel cover across strategic petroleum reserves, refinery inventories and commercial stocks, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Monday, even as oil companies told the government they are incurring large daily losses on retail fuels.

According to officials, the minister made the assessment in a briefing with senior ministry staff and industry representatives, stressing that short-term shocks in the Middle East would be manageable from existing stocks and alternative sourcing. “We have a comfortable cushion to meet short disruptions,” an official summary of his comments showed.

Refiners report steep under-recoveries

In a separate briefing the same day, Additional Secretary Praveen Khanuja said state-run refiners are facing under-recoveries — the gap between administered pump prices and actual costs — of roughly ₹30 per litre on diesel and about ₹6 per litre on petrol. That, Khanuja said, translates into an estimated daily loss of about ₹600–700 crore for oil companies, excluding LPG.

Industry sources familiar with the discussions confirmed the figure and said companies have flagged the strain to the ministry, urging support measures if sustained volatility pushes losses higher.

Short-term resilience, long-term risks

Puri told reporters that India’s priority is to maintain at least 60 days of cover for crude oil, natural gas and LPG each — a threshold the country is currently meeting, he said. He cautioned, however, that a prolonged escalation in the Gulf, especially if maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz were closed for an extended period, would alter the outlook.

“If disruptions remain short-lived, we can manage through strategic reserves and alternate routes,” an aide to the minister said. “But a long-drawn conflict would have broader impacts on global energy markets and will need additional responses.”

Officials stressed that if the Strait of Hormuz were blocked temporarily, India could withstand around 30 days of disruption using available inventories and adjusted supply chains. The government has also been pursuing diversification of suppliers and additional long-term contracts to reduce concentration risk.

Supply diversification underway

Puri pointed to steps taken to widen supply sources beyond Gulf producers. He said talks have taken place to secure extra LPG cargoes from the United Arab Emirates if required, and pointed to planned gas supplies from Mozambique as another buffer that would strengthen India’s energy security over time.

The minister also highlighted domestic measures: expansion of drilling and exploration, faster investment in refining capacity and stock management. “We are not just dependent on strategic reserves — refinery inventories and retail stocks form a significant part of our buffer,” he said, noting India currently operates 24 refineries and continues to expand capacity.

Domestic stock management defended

Responding to criticism that India did not build up reserves when crude prices dipped after the pandemic, Puri rejected the charge. Officials explained that inventory management balances commercial use and replenishment; crude cannot be stored indefinitely at the cost of foregoing domestic supply needs and refinery runs.

The ministry said it will continue active stock rotation and procurement aligned with market conditions, while also accelerating domestic exploration projects, including in the Andaman basin.

Impact on consumers and next steps

For now, the immediate consumer impact is muted because pump prices in India remain regulated in part and retail changes reflect global price swings with a lag. Still, the reported under-recoveries signal pressure on state refiners’ finances, and sustained losses could push discussions on fiscal support, temporary price adjustments or targeted relief measures.

Officials said they will continue daily monitoring of port call schedules, cargo availability and refinery throughput. Industry sources expect the ministry to hold further meetings this week to review options if tensions in the Middle East intensify.

Related context

The ministry noted that LPG connections in the country have risen from about 14 crore in 2014 to more than 33 crore now, reflecting strengthened domestic distribution networks that would be mobilised in any disruption. Separate briefings this week also warned of inflationary pressure on household fuels if international LPG prices remain elevated.

EU Warns US-Iran Tensions Trapped in Dangerous Zone Between War and Peace

The United States carried out fresh military strikes on an Iranian site near the strategic port city of Bandar Abbas early Thursday, escalating tensions in the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. US Central Command confirmed the action, saying its forces downed four Iranian attack drones and hit a ground control station preparing to launch another.

Iranian media reported explosions east of Bandar Abbas, close to the Strait of Hormuz, though local authorities said there were no immediate casualties or major damage. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it responded by targeting an “American airbase,” according to semi-official Tasnim news agency.

Strikes Follow Drone Threats

The US operation marked the second strike this week on Iranian targets. CENTCOM described the drones as posing a direct threat to maritime traffic around the critical chokepoint. Iranian sources, meanwhile, linked the incident to an alleged confrontation involving a US tanker attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz without coordination.

Shipping data from LSEG and Kpler showed three large tankers — two supertankers and one LNG carrier — had passed through the strait earlier in the week with transponders switched off, heading toward India and China. Oil prices reacted sharply, with Brent crude climbing above $95 per barrel amid fresh uncertainty.

EU Sounds Alarm on Fragile Peace

In Cyprus, European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas expressed deep concern over the flare-up. Speaking to reporters at a meeting of EU foreign ministers, she said the US and Iran were caught in a “very dangerous zone” between war and peace.

“They are right now in between this very dangerous zone of war and peace, and it is not in anybody’s interest that this war continues,” Kallas said. Her remarks came as both sides traded accusations despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Trump Administration’s Stance

US President Donald Trump convened a cabinet meeting at the White House to discuss the situation. He has repeatedly linked any potential deal with Iran to broader regional normalisation, including expansion of the Abraham Accords to more countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that Washington seeks a diplomatic path but will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

Iranian officials, including Deputy Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Bagheri Kani, demanded the unconditional release of frozen Iranian assets, calling it the “legal right” of the Iranian people.

Energy Markets and Global Ripple Effects

The renewed hostilities are already reshaping global energy strategies. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol noted that the conflict has forced countries to seek alternative supply routes and bolster domestic production, warning of the biggest energy security crisis in decades.

In Asia, stock markets opened lower while oil futures surged. Traders remain wary as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital artery for global crude — stays severely limited compared to pre-conflict levels.

Regional Fallout Widens

The US-Iran exchanges come amid continued Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, with fresh strikes reported in Tyre and Nabatieh, and new displacement orders issued by the Israeli army. However, the latest developments around Bandar Abbas have shifted immediate international focus back to the Gulf.

Local residents in Bandar Abbas reported hearing loud explosions in the morning, with Iranian air defence systems briefly activated. Iranian state media described the situation as under control.

What Lies Ahead

Diplomatic channels between the US and Iran remain active, though both sides appear locked in a tense standoff. Analysts say any sustained ceasefire will require significant concessions on sanctions, nuclear issues, and regional proxy conflicts.

For now, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters remains highly volatile, with implications stretching far beyond the Middle East — affecting energy prices, shipping safety, and global economic stability.

Indian Oil Has One-Month Crude Stock, Profit Jumps 81% to ₹15,176 Crore

State-run refiner says no shortage despite ongoing Hormuz route disruptions; LPG sourcing shifted to Indonesia, Nigeria

Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) has built a crude oil stockpile sufficient for over a month, the company said on Tuesday, assuring that domestic supplies remain unaffected despite continued tensions between the United States and Iran. The assurance comes as the strategically vital Hormuz Strait – through which nearly half of India’s energy imports pass – remains partially disrupted.

The public sector oil major also reported an 81 per cent surge in consolidated net profit for the January-March quarter of fiscal year 2025-26, reaching ₹15,176.08 crore compared to ₹8,367.63 crore in the same period last year.

Crude Stock Adequate

According to IOCL officials, the company holds more than one month’s worth of crude oil inventory, enough to cushion any immediate supply shocks. “We have multiple sources for crude oil and other petroleum products,” said Anuj Jain, Director (Finance) at IOCL. “All our refineries have been operating at full capacity since the Middle East dispute began.”

The Gulf region remains India’s primary energy supplier, but the ongoing conflict near the Strait of Hormuz has forced refiners to explore alternative routes and suppliers.

Hormuz Disruptions Bite

The Hormuz Strait, located between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, handles approximately 20 per cent of global crude oil trade. The waterway’s partial closure continues to affect worldwide crude supplies, with India feeling the pinch on its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports.

Officials confirmed that nearly 50 per cent of India’s energy supply and 90 per cent of its LPG imports from Gulf nations typically transit through this choke point. “Initial reports indicate that LPG stock levels have seen a marginal dip,” a source familiar with the matter said. “But the situation is being managed across the country.”

LPG Sourcing Shifted

Acknowledging supply bottlenecks, IOCL has moved quickly to secure gas from alternative markets. Following disruptions in Gulf supplies, the company initiated spot procurement from Indonesia, Nigeria, Angola and Oman.

“There were some interruptions in LPG supply,” Jain admitted, “but we have changed our import sources.” Local authorities confirmed that retail LPG distribution has not faced major shortages in any state so far, though some dealers in coastal regions reported delayed tanker arrivals last week.

Profit Surges, Dividend on Table

The company’s board recommended a final dividend of 12.5 per cent for FY26, translating to ₹1.25 per equity share of face value ₹10. The payout, however, remains subject to shareholder approval at the upcoming annual general meeting.

IOCL’s strong quarterly performance comes despite volatile crude prices and geopolitical headwinds. Market analysts attribute the profit growth to robust refining margins and lower inventory losses compared to the previous year.

Refinery Expansion Plans Underway

For the current financial year 2026-27, IOCL has earmarked a capital expenditure of ₹32,700 crore – slightly up from ₹31,401 crore spent in FY26. The bulk of this investment is directed at expanding refining capacity across three key sites.

The Panipat refinery is being expanded from 15 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA) to 25 MMTPA, with completion targeted by December 2026. The Gujarat refinery will see capacity rise from 13.7 MMTPA to 18 MMTPA at an estimated cost of ₹19,000 crore. Meanwhile, the Barauni refinery is set to increase from 6 MMTPA to 9 MMTPA. All three projects are expected to be commissioned around the same timeline.

Ground-level work at these sites is progressing steadily, with officials stating that land acquisition and equipment orders are largely complete. The expanded capacities are expected to reduce India’s dependence on imported petroleum products in the medium term.

PM Modi Concludes UAE Visit, Departs for Netherlands After Key Deals

Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrapped up his brief but significant visit to the United Arab Emirates on Friday and departed for the Netherlands, the next leg of his multi-nation tour. UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan personally saw off the Prime Minister at the airport, reflecting the deep warmth and strategic closeness between the two countries.

The visit, though short, yielded concrete outcomes in energy, defence, and investment. Officials described it as highly productive, coming at a time when West Asia faces ongoing challenges and global energy markets remain sensitive.

According to the Ministry of External Affairs, Prime Minister Modi and President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan held detailed bilateral discussions covering energy security, trade, investment flows, and the broader situation in West Asia. India and the UAE signed an agreement on the supply of Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG), along with MoUs on strategic petroleum reserves, defence cooperation, and the development of a ship repair cluster at Vadinar in Gujarat.

Major Investment Announcement

The UAE announced a $5 billion investment commitment in Indian infrastructure, including stakes in RBL Bank and Sammaan Capital. This move is expected to further boost economic linkages between the two nations, which already enjoy a comprehensive strategic partnership.

PM Modi, who arrived in Abu Dhabi earlier, received a ceremonial welcome complete with a guard of honour. In a notable gesture, UAE Air Force F-16 fighter jets escorted the Prime Minister’s aircraft, a visible symbol of the respect extended to India and its leadership.

Regional Concerns and Solidarity

During the talks, Prime Minister Modi emphasised the need for the Strait of Hormuz to remain open and secure, noting that disruptions in West Asia affect global trade and energy flows. He reiterated India’s long-standing position favouring dialogue, diplomacy, and adherence to international law for resolving regional disputes. Modi also expressed solidarity with the UAE, stating that India stands “shoulder-to-shoulder” with the country in all situations.

The Prime Minister thanked the UAE leadership for its support to the Indian diaspora during difficult times and for condolences extended after a recent natural disaster in India. He described the UAE as feeling like his “second home,” underlining the people-to-people bonds that complement the strong government-level ties.

Local observers and former diplomats noted the timing of the visit as particularly important. Former Indian Ambassador Sanjay Sudhir told ANI that the engagement sends a strong signal of India’s support amid evolving dynamics in West Asia. The UAE’s recent decision to exit OPEC and its plan to ramp up crude oil production to 5 million barrels per day by 2027 are also expected to open new avenues for long-term energy cooperation with Indian firms.

Productive Outcomes

PM Modi later termed the visit “short but highly productive.” Among other exchanges, the UAE President presented a Cerebras chip to the Prime Minister, highlighting growing cooperation in advanced technology sectors as well.

The two sides finalised around seven key outcomes during the visit, spanning defence, energy, and economic domains. These agreements build on years of steadily deepening partnership, with the UAE being one of India’s most important partners in the Gulf region for trade, investment, and energy imports.

As Prime Minister Modi heads to the Netherlands to continue his tour, officials indicated that the momentum gained in the UAE would feed into broader diplomatic and economic engagements ahead. The developments are being closely watched by industry circles in both countries for their potential to create new opportunities in infrastructure, energy security, and strategic collaboration.

For millions of Indians with connections to the Gulf, such high-level visits also reinforce a sense of reassurance about the strong bilateral relationship that directly impacts diaspora welfare and economic opportunities.

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated further after former US President Donald Trump claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping has expressed willingness to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open amid growing geopolitical instability involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. The remarks have added a new diplomatic dimension to an already fragile global energy situation.

In an interview with Fox News, Trump stated that Xi Jinping had indirectly conveyed support for efforts to ensure uninterrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. According to Trump, China has a strong interest in maintaining stability in the region due to its heavy dependence on Iranian crude oil imports.

“Xi Jinping wants some kind of agreement between the United States and Iran. If I can help, I would like to help,” Trump said, quoting the Chinese leadership’s position. He further added that countries heavily reliant on Iranian oil naturally prefer that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and secure for uninterrupted trade flows.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea, handles nearly a fifth of global oil shipments. Any disruption in this corridor has historically led to volatility in global crude oil prices and triggered fears of supply shortages across Asia, Europe, and other major importing regions.

Alongside Trump’s remarks, Iran has introduced new operational protocols for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports from Iranian state-linked sources, all commercial ships navigating the route are now required to comply with enhanced monitoring and clearance procedures under Iranian oversight. Tehran has framed these measures as necessary for national security amid rising regional tensions.

Iran has also intensified its diplomatic outreach, urging BRICS member countries to openly condemn the United States and Israel for what it describes as violations of international law and aggressive actions in the region. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made the appeal during a recent BRICS meeting, arguing that global institutions have failed to address escalating instability in West Asia.

The situation has already begun affecting maritime movement. Reports suggest that several vessels have altered their routes due to security concerns. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that increased tensions in the Strait have led to at least 70 commercial ships adjusting their planned passages, reflecting growing uncertainty among global shipping operators.

In a separate incident that highlights the fragility of the region, a cargo vessel reportedly linked to Gujarat was damaged near Oman under unclear circumstances involving a suspected drone or missile strike. All 14 crew members were safely rescued, but the incident has further heightened fears about the safety of commercial shipping in the area.

China’s role in the evolving situation is being closely watched by global analysts. As one of the largest importers of Iranian oil, Beijing has a strategic interest in ensuring stability in the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption could significantly impact its energy supply chain and manufacturing sector. While China has not officially confirmed Trump’s claim, its diplomatic engagements in the region have consistently emphasized de-escalation and dialogue.

Experts believe that if major powers like China actively engage in mediation, it could reduce tensions between the United States and Iran. However, they also warn that competing geopolitical interests may complicate any coordinated solution. The Strait of Hormuz remains a sensitive geopolitical chokepoint where even minor incidents can escalate into broader conflicts affecting global markets.

Oil prices have already shown volatility in response to recent developments. Traders are closely monitoring supply risks, with concerns that prolonged instability could push crude prices higher and contribute to inflationary pressures worldwide. Energy-importing countries, particularly in Asia, are expected to be the most affected if disruptions continue.

Iran’s new regulatory stance, combined with increased naval presence and diplomatic pressure campaigns, signals a more assertive phase in its regional policy. At the same time, US and allied forces continue to emphasize freedom of navigation in international waters, maintaining a delicate balance to avoid direct confrontation.

The coming weeks are likely to be critical in determining whether diplomatic intervention can stabilize the situation or whether tensions in the Strait of Hormuz will further escalate into a wider geopolitical crisis. For now, global markets, shipping companies, and governments remain on high alert as developments unfold.

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