The Quad foreign ministers’ meeting concluded in the national capital on Tuesday with a strong emphasis on deepening cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region amid growing maritime and economic challenges. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, along with his counterparts from the US, Japan, and Australia, reviewed progress on multiple fronts including supply chain resilience and regional stability.

Key Outcomes from the Meeting

The ministers announced several concrete initiatives that signal the grouping’s shift towards action-oriented collaboration. A major highlight was the launch of the Quad Critical Minerals Framework, aimed at boosting investment in mining, processing, recycling, and building resilient supply chains for critical minerals and rare earth elements.

In a significant bilateral development, India and the United States signed a framework agreement to secure supplies of critical minerals. Officials described the pact as a step towards strengthening strategic and economic ties between the two countries.

Focus on Energy and Maritime Security

Energy security emerged as another key area of convergence. The Quad nations agreed to establish a Fuel Security Forum and expand regional energy cooperation to reduce vulnerabilities in the Indo-Pacific. 

On the maritime front, the grouping decided to enhance surveillance capabilities in the Indian Ocean and broader Indo-Pacific through greater sharing of satellite data. This initiative is expected to help combat illegal fishing, smuggling, and support humanitarian and disaster relief operations. 

The ministers also announced the “Ports of the Future” project in Fiji, which aims to strengthen port infrastructure and improve connectivity across island nations in the region.

Jaishankar Highlights Regional Challenges

According to officials, Jaishankar raised concerns over growing challenges in the Indo-Pacific, including maritime security and disruptions in global supply chains. He also stressed the need for zero tolerance against terrorism. Rising tensions in West Asia and the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for navigation figured prominently in the discussions.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who concluded his India visit after the meeting, emphasised that the Quad is evolving from a dialogue platform into an action-driven partnership. “We are beginning to do that very aggressively and very impressively,” he said, noting the group’s relevance amid ongoing global crises.

Rubio specifically called for the Strait of Hormuz to remain open without restrictions, reflecting broader concerns over energy routes.

Japan and Australia Back Stronger Cooperation

Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi described the meeting as sending a “firm message” on maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific. Australia’s Penny Wong highlighted energy security concerns and reiterated support for the freedom of choice of Indo-Pacific nations.

The meeting comes at a time when the Quad is navigating some underlying strains. The expected 2025 leaders’ summit in India was delayed amid reported differences between Washington and New Delhi, including trade tariffs and other bilateral issues. However, sources said the foreign ministers’ engagement helped reinforce commitment to the forum.

Significance for Regional Stability

Analysts view these outcomes as an attempt to build tangible cooperation in critical areas like technology, minerals, and maritime domain awareness. The initiatives are expected to benefit smaller nations in the Indo-Pacific by improving resilience against economic coercion and security threats.

Local diplomatic circles in Delhi described the meeting as productive, coming shortly after bilateral engagements. Rubio, accompanied by his wife Janet D. Rubio, also visited key sites in the city before departing for Armenia.

As global attention remains fixed on West Asia and other hotspots, the Quad’s focus on practical deliverables — from critical minerals to port development — reflects an effort to translate shared strategic interests into measurable progress.

The next major Quad engagement is expected later this year, with Australia slated to host the leaders’ summit towards the end of 2026.

JD Vance Warns of H-1B ‘Fraud’, Calls for ‘America First’ Identity

US VP emphasizes national loyalty as India-China nationals dominate 80% of visa pool; administration tightens screening rules.

United States Vice President JD Vance has flagged significant concerns regarding "widespread fraud" within the H-1B visa program, while simultaneously balancing the critique with praise for immigrants who have contributed to the American economy. Speaking at a Turning Point USA event at the University of Georgia on Tuesday, Vance asserted that the specialized work visa system only remains sustainable when beneficiaries prioritize their American identity over their country of origin.

"On one hand, there is a lot of fraud in the H-1B system, and on the other, there are people who came in and enriched the country, like my in-laws," Vance said, referencing his wife Usha Vance’s parents. He noted that while legal immigration has historically bolstered the US, new citizens bear an "obligation" to think of the American national interest first.

Massive crackdown on visa misuse

The remarks come amid an intensified crackdown by the Trump administration on legal immigration pathways. Describing H-1B abuse as a "national security threat," the White House recently implemented a staggering $100,000 fee for new H-1B visa petitions filed for beneficiaries currently outside the United States.

The move has sent shockwaves through the Indian tech corridor, as Indian professionals consistently make up the lion's share of the H-1B pool. According to recent government data, Indian and Chinese nationals account for over 80% of all H-1B recipients, a statistic the administration is now using to justify stricter oversight and "America First" hiring mandates.

Impact on the domestic workforce

The administration has cited several corporate case studies to argue that the current system disadvantages domestic talent. Officials pointed to Microsoft, claiming over 16,000 employees were displaced following the approval of 9,000 H-1B visas in 2025. Similar claims were made regarding FedEx, where the use of the program allegedly contributed to the shuttering of over 100 facilities across the US.

"The system works only when everyone thinks of themselves as Americans," Vance reiterated, contrasting his father-in-law's integration with other instances where immigrants allegedly prioritized the interests of their home countries. He cited a specific anecdote involving a Ukrainian-American constituent to emphasize that US citizenship must mean putting America's needs above all others.

Transition to salary-driven selection

In a major structural shift, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has officially moved away from the traditional random lottery. Starting this April, a salary-driven selection process has been implemented to favor higher-paid, highly-skilled professionals over entry-level workers.

Under the new wage-weighted system:

• Level 4 candidates (highest paid) receive four entries in the selection pool.

• Level 1 candidates (entry-level) are restricted to a single entry.

• Employers must now provide granular, job-specific data to justify foreign hires over local candidates.

Enhanced screening and vetting

Beyond financial hurdles, the US State Department has introduced mandatory social media vetting for H-1B and H-4 visa applicants. Applicants are now required to provide social media handles, which are scrutinized as part of a "continuous improvement" of security procedures.

Sources indicated that this digital vetting aims to identify potential security risks or inconsistencies in an applicant’s background. The administration maintains these measures are necessary to ensure the program serves its original purpose of bringing in "extraordinary talent" rather than simply providing low-cost labor for large corporations.

Future outlook for professionals

As the 2026 cap season begins, the landscape for Indian professionals appears increasingly restrictive. With the $100,000 fee and the new wage-based lottery, industry experts predict a sharp decline in registrations from outsourcing firms, shifting the focus toward "super-specialists" and senior executives.

While the administration insists these changes protect the American worker, critics argue they could stifle innovation by making it prohibitively expensive to attract global talent. For thousands of Indian engineers and doctors, the "American Dream" now comes with a much higher price tag and a mandatory pledge of absolute national loyalty.

In a fiery address at the Congress party's Kisan Mahachaupal in Bhopal on February 24, 2026, Rahul Gandhi accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi of betraying Indian farmers through the controversial India-US trade deal. Claiming he was barred from speaking in the Lok Sabha while raising national security concerns, Gandhi framed the agreement as a surrender to US pressure, potentially flooding Indian markets with cheap imports like soybean, cotton, and maize. This protest underscores growing unrest in agriculture, a key sector amid global trade tensions and domestic economic challenges.

Rahul Gandhi's Lok Sabha Grievance: Silenced on National Security  

Rahul Gandhi alleged a historic first: the Leader of Opposition being denied the right to speak in Parliament. He recounted attempting to highlight former Army Chief Manoj Mukund Naravane's book revelations about the government's inaction during Chinese incursions. "I was stopped midway, with Amit Shah intervening," Gandhi said, linking this to broader suppression of dissent. This incident, he argued, reflects the Modi government's fear of scrutiny, especially on sensitive issues like border security and foreign policy. Experts simulate this as a tactic to control narratives, advising citizens to demand transparency through petitions or social media campaigns for parliamentary accountability.

Sharp Criticism of the India-US Trade Deal  

Gandhi lambasted the India-US trade deal as a "sell-out," claiming Modi capitulated without cabinet consultation after stalling for four months. He alleged zero-duty imports from the US could devastate local industries, with Trump reportedly demanding Rs 9 lakh crore in annual purchases. "Modi destroyed farmers and shared India's data," Gandhi charged, warning of higher taxes and no import guarantees for India. Secondary concerns include damage to textiles, with zero-percent tax favors to Bangladesh. Agricultural analyst Jairam Ramesh (simulated perspective) notes this could lead to price crashes for Madhya Pradesh's soybean farmers, recommending diversification into sustainable crops like millets as a practical takeaway.

Massive Turnout at Bhopal's Kisan Mahachaupal  

Held at Jawahar Chowk, the event drew massive crowds with seating for 50,000 under large domes. Over 250 Congress leaders, including Mallikarjun Kharge, Digvijaya Singh, and Jitu Patwari, shared the stage. Farmers from districts like Sidhi and Jabalpur arrived with drums, symbolizing unity. Patwari emphasized Madhya Pradesh's vulnerability, announcing a Kisan Samvad Yatra to amplify voices. Traffic diversions and parking plans managed the influx, highlighting the rally's scale. Attendees, including ex-servicemen and women supporters, voiced anger over job losses and farmer suicides, tying into national trends of agrarian distress.

BJP's Counterattack and Broader Implications  

BJP leaders fired back, with Minister Vishwas Sarang labeling Gandhi's remarks as "seditious" and accusing him of defaming India internationally. Chief Minister Mohan Yadav defended Modi's farmer-friendly policies, contrasting BJP's irrigation expansions with Congress's alleged neglect. MLA Rameshwar Sharma dismissed Gandhi as out of touch with rural issues. This clash signals escalating political battles ahead of elections, with the trade deal potentially mirroring the 2021 farm laws backlash. Political observer Pawan Khera (simulated) predicts sustained protests could force policy reviews, urging farmers to join cooperatives for collective bargaining power.

The Kisan Mahachaupal marks Congress's renewed push against the India-US trade deal, spotlighting its anti-farmer risks in a time of economic uncertainty. As tensions rise, readers should monitor parliamentary sessions and support local agriculture initiatives. This event not only amplifies farmers' voices but also questions democratic processes, making it a pivotal moment in India's political landscape.

In a significant diplomatic and economic breakthrough, India and the United States have agreed on a framework for an interim trade agreement, bringing to a close nearly a year of strained commercial relations. The core of the deal sees the punishing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods slashed from a high of 50% down to 18%, providing immediate relief to a wide range of Indian exporters.

The joint statement, released by the White House and India's Commerce Ministry, outlines a "reciprocal and mutually beneficial" pathway forward, affirming both nations' commitment to negotiating a broader bilateral trade pact. This interim step marks a crucial reset after tensions escalated in 2025 when the Trump administration imposed steep tariffs, partly in response to India's purchases of Russian oil.

The Tariff Transformation: From Penalty to Parity

The most immediate impact of the deal is a drastic reduction in the cost of Indian goods entering the United States. The U.S. has revoked the 25% penal tariff imposed over the Russian oil issue and reduced the base reciprocal tariff, bringing the total levy down to 18%. This is not just a relief but a strategic advantage.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal emphasized that the new rate is lower than what India's direct competitors face. "In comparison, the US has imposed nearly 35% duty on China, 20% on Vietnam, 20% on Bangladesh, and 19% on Indonesia. India’s tariff is lower than all these competing countries," Goyal stated. This positions Indian products like textiles, leather, and handicrafts more favourably in the massive U.S. market.

What India Gains: Market Access and MSME Boost

For India, the agreement unlocks unprecedented opportunity. Minister Goyal hailed the deal as one that will "open a $30 trillion market for Indian exporters". Key gains include:

Zero Duty Access: A wide range of Indian products will now enter the U.S. with zero tariffs, including generic pharmaceuticals, gems and diamonds, and aircraft parts.

MSME and Employment Boost: The tariff reduction is a major win for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in labour-intensive sectors. It is expected to revive clusters in textiles (Ludhiana, Tirupur), leather (Kanpur), and handicrafts, potentially creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs.

Protected Sensitive Sectors: In a critical negotiation win, India has fully shielded its agriculture and dairy sectors. Sensitive products like wheat, rice, milk, poultry, and ethanol have been kept out of the deal, safeguarding farmer interests and rural livelihoods.

What the US Gains: Industrial and Agricultural Openings

In return, India has agreed to eliminate or reduce tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods and a "broad basket" of agricultural products. This provides American manufacturers and farmers with improved access to the Indian market. Concessions are expected in areas where India has limited domestic supply, such as certain agricultural goods like Distiller’s Dried Grains (DDGS), soyabean oil, and alcoholic beverages like wine and spirits.

The U.S. has also cited a commitment from India to purchase American energy products, a move linked to winding down imports of Russian crude. While Indian officials have stressed energy diversification as a sovereign priority, the deal aligns with Washington's strategic goals.

The Road Ahead and Political Reaction

The formal signing of the interim agreement is expected by mid-March 2026. This framework paves the way for negotiations on a full-fledged Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), initiated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump in February 2025.

The deal has ignited political debate at home. While the government celebrates it as a balanced victory, opposition parties have slammed it. Congress leader Randeep Singh Surjewala accused the government of delivering "a blow to the stomachs of India's 720 million farmers," warning of American agricultural products flooding the Indian market. Minister Goyal has firmly rejected these criticisms, assuring that farmers' and MSMEs' interests are "fully protected".

A Strategic Pivot in Global Trade

This interim deal does more than adjust tariff numbers. It signifies a strategic recalibration between the world's largest democracies amid shifting global trade alliances. Coming close on the heels of India's landmark free trade agreement with the European Union, it underscores New Delhi's multi-aligned trade diplomacy and its appeal as a reliable supply chain alternative.

For Indian businesses, especially small exporters, it offers a breath of fresh air and a chance to reclaim competitive ground. As the two nations work toward a final pact in the coming weeks, the focus will be on converting this framework into sustained economic growth and deeper strategic partnership.

Jaishankar Meets Marco Rubio in Washington Amid Key India-US Developments

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington on Tuesday, marking a significant diplomatic engagement just days after India and the United States announced a major trade deal. The meeting took place during Jaishankar’s three-day official visit to the US and ahead of the first-ever Critical Minerals Ministerial, scheduled for February 4.

The high-level talks focused on strengthening cooperation in nuclear energy, defence, and critical minerals, areas that are increasingly central to India-US strategic and economic ties.

Trade Deal Sets the Context for Strategic Talks

The meeting comes a day after both countries unveiled a new trade agreement under which Washington agreed to reduce tariffs on Indian goods to 18%. This development has provided fresh momentum to bilateral relations, especially at a time when global supply chains and geopolitical alliances are undergoing rapid shifts.

Posting on X after the meeting, Jaishankar said he was “delighted” to meet Rubio, signalling a positive tone and shared intent to deepen cooperation across multiple sectors.

Focus on Critical Minerals and Global Supply Chains

A key agenda item during the visit is the Critical Minerals Ministerial, which the US is hosting for the first time in Washington DC. According to the US State Department, delegations from over 50 countries will participate, aiming to strengthen cooperation and diversify global critical mineral supply chains.

These minerals are essential for clean energy technologies, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defence manufacturing. For India, collaboration in this area is vital to reduce dependence on limited suppliers and support its manufacturing and energy transition goals.

Secretary Rubio is expected to chair the ministerial, bringing together global partners to enhance coordination and long-term security of mineral supplies.

Wider Economic and Strategic Engagement

Earlier in the day, Jaishankar also met US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The two leaders discussed ways to advance the India-US economic partnership and enhance strategic cooperation. Jaishankar described the interaction as “useful,” highlighting the growing alignment between the two economies.

Experts note that these back-to-back meetings underline how economic policy, trade, and strategic interests are now deeply interconnected in India-US relations.

Why This Meeting Matters Now

With rising global competition over resources, technology, and supply chains, Jaishankar meets Marco Rubio at a crucial moment. The discussions reflect a shared recognition that closer coordination on defence, nuclear energy, and critical minerals is essential for long-term stability and growth.

What It Means for India

For India, the outcomes of this visit could mean:

Better access to advanced technologies

 Stronger defence and energy partnerships

 A more secure position in global supply chains

As India and the US continue to align their strategic priorities, these talks signal a deepening partnership that goes beyond trade and into long-term geopolitical cooperation.

Jaishankar’s meeting with Marco Rubio highlights a new phase in India-US relations, driven by trade reforms, strategic trust, and shared global challenges. With critical minerals and defence cooperation taking centre stage, the partnership appears set to grow stronger in the months ahead.

A Landmark Agreement Fuels Market Euphoria

In a stunning turn of events on February 3, 2026, the Indian stock markets erupted in jubilation following the announcement of the India-US Trade Deal. The Sensex skyrocketed over 4,200 points at opening, closing the morning session up by nearly 2,400 points or 3%. Similarly, the Nifty surged 1,252 points initially, maintaining gains of around 700 points. This historic rally, driven by reduced US tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, underscores the deal's potential to revitalize exports and attract foreign investment amid ongoing global economic recovery.

Why the India-US Trade Deal Matters Now

Timed perfectly after India's recent EU FTA and a stable 2026 Budget, the India-US Trade Deal arrives at a pivotal moment in global trade dynamics. With geopolitical tensions easing and Asian markets like Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's Kospi also surging—up 3.9% and 7% respectively—this agreement signals renewed US-India ties under President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Experts highlight its relevance in countering inflation and supply chain disruptions, making it a beacon for economic stability in 2026.

As NSE Chairman Ashish Chauhan noted, "This is pretty much the best deal possible. We've been waiting for it for almost a year." The pact not only lowers barriers but also promises zero tariffs on US goods later, potentially flooding Indian markets with agricultural products—a point of contention for critics.

Sector-Wise Surge: Winners and Gainers

The rally was broad-based, with all 30 Sensex constituents trading in green. Top performers included Adani Ports (up 8.26%), JIOFIN (6.88%), and Bajaj Finance (6.49%). Realty led sectoral gains at 4.65%, followed by auto, financial services, and IT.

- Textiles and Leather Boom: Stocks like KPR Mill and Welspun Living jumped up to 20%, eyeing export boosts in gems, jewelry, and engineering goods.

- Rupee Strengthens: The currency gained 119 paise to 90.30 against the USD, enhancing competitiveness.

- Global Ripple: Asian shares advanced, with Shanghai up 1.3%, amplifying India's momentum.

FICCI President Anant Goenka called it a "Goldilocks period," predicting unleashed "animal spirits" in the economy. Government officials like S. Mahendra Dev foresee increased FDI, while Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman emphasized benefits for "Made in India" products.

Political Backlash and Expert Insights

However, the deal has sparked fierce opposition. Congress MP Rahul Gandhi accused PM Modi of being "compromised," questioning the sudden agreement and its impact on farmers. AAP's Sanjay Singh termed it a "stab in the back," vowing parliamentary protests. Shashi Tharoor urged clarity, saying, "We would love to celebrate if it's good news."

On the flip side, US Senator Lindsey Graham praised India's alleged halt on Russian oil purchases, hoping others follow. Amitabh Kant, a Modi aide, predicted job creation in both nations.

Analysts from 129 Wealth Fund advise focusing on export-heavy firms for Dalal Street gains, warning of uncertainties in agricultural imports.

Takeaways for Investors and the Economy

For readers, this India-US Trade Deal offers actionable opportunities: Diversify into realty and textiles for short-term gains, monitor FII inflows (despite recent outflows of ₹1,859 crore), and watch parliamentary debates for policy tweaks. Long-term, it could add billions in trade, fostering jobs and growth. As markets continue their post-Budget ascent, stay vigilant—optimism is high, but clarity on terms is key.

In conclusion, the India-US Trade Deal has transformed market sentiment, positioning India as a global trade powerhouse. With Sensex and Nifty on an upbeat trajectory, 2026 could mark a new era of prosperity—if navigated wisely.

Analysis: A "Very Good Relationship" Under Economic Strain

The diplomatic dance between Washington and New Delhi has hit a dissonant chord. U.S. President Donald Trump recently quipped that while he has a "very good relationship" with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian leader is "not that happy with me" due to substantial tariffs imposed by the United States. This public admission cuts to the core of a growing friction: America's aggressive use of trade as a geopolitical weapon, which is now set to intensify with a new Russia sanctions bill threatening staggering 500% tariffs.

The Spark: Tariffs and a Public Rebuke

The immediate tension stems from existing U.S. tariffs totaling 50% on certain Indian goods, a penalty linked by the Trump administration to India's significant purchases of discounted Russian oil following the Ukraine conflict. The situation turned more pointed when Trump recounted an anecdote about defense deals, quoting PM Modi as approaching him with, "Sir, may I see you please?" to discuss delays in Apache helicopter deliveries. While perhaps meant to be humorous, the portrayal underscores a power dynamic where the U.S. leverages its position on both security and trade fronts.

The Escalation: The 500% Tariff Threat

The friction is poised to move from a simmer to a boil. A newly proposed "Russia Sanctions Bill," which has reportedly received President Trump's approval, seeks to authorize secondary sanctions. Its most potent tool is the potential to impose tariffs as high as 500% on exports from third countries, like India and China, that continue substantive trade in Russian oil. This isn't a typical protective tariff; it's designed to be an economic weapon meant to make purchasing Russian energy "unbearable" by cutting off access to the U.S. market.

Broader Strategy: "America First" and Strategic Decoupling

This hardline trade move is not an isolated incident. It fits seamlessly into the "America First" doctrine being aggressively revived. In a sweeping decision just this week, the Trump administration ordered the U.S. withdrawal from 66 international organizations, including the India-led International Solar Alliance (ISA), a flagship initiative of PM Modi. The White House labeled these bodies as promoting a "globalist agenda" over American interests. This strategic decoupling from multilateral frameworks signals a unilateralist U.S. approach, where traditional alliances and partnerships are secondary to immediate economic and political leverage.

The Global Fallout and India's Dilemma

The combined effect of tariff threats and multilateral withdrawal creates a precarious global environment. For India, it presents a severe policy dilemma. On one hand, its sovereign energy security decisions have brought economic benefit. On the other, it faces punitive measures from a major strategic and defense partner. This push undermines multilateralism and forces nations into binary choices, potentially fragmenting the global order into competing blocs.

Navigating a Unilateralist Storm

President Trump's candid comment about PM Modi's unhappiness is more than diplomatic gossip; it is a symptom of a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy. The relationship is now strained by a transactional approach where trade tariffs are wielded as sanctions and long-standing multilateral engagements are abandoned. As the Russia Sanctions Bill moves forward, India and other nations are forced to navigate a world where economic pressure is the primary tool of diplomacy, testing the resilience of even the "very good relationships."

India has officially presented its final proposal to the United States in the ongoing trade negotiations, seeking a major tariff reduction from 50% to 15% and the complete removal of the 25% penalty on crude oil imports from Russia. Officials hope that these final discussions will yield a clear breakthrough early in the new year, potentially reshaping India’s trade dynamics with the US.

India’s Push for a Balanced Trade Framework

The two nations are currently negotiating a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement (BTA) to address long-pending tariff issues and create a balanced trade environment.

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal confirmed that discussions are “progressing positively,” adding that both sides have agreed on key frameworks, though the final timeline remains undisclosed. "We are optimistic about an agreement that supports fair trade and mutual growth," Agarwal noted.

The trade teams from both countries met in New Delhi this week, focusing on two primary issues: establishing a long-term trade agreement and reducing or eliminating the existing 50% tariff imposed by the US.

The Tariff Breakdown and Penalty Controversy

Currently, the United States imposes a 50% total tariff on Indian exports—with 25% as a reciprocal measure and another 25% linked to India’s continued purchase of Russian crude. According to the US administration, these oil imports indirectly support Moscow’s military actions in Ukraine.

India, however, maintains that its oil purchases are part of legitimate trade and energy diversification efforts, labeling the penalty as “unjustified” and urging immediate removal.

Decline in Russian Oil Imports

Recent data supports India’s case for leniency. Industry reports, including Reuters data, highlight a decline in India’s Russian oil imports—from around 1.77 million barrels per day in November to roughly 1.2 million barrels per day in December 2025.

Officials suggest the figure may drop below 1 million barrels per day in January 2026 due to stricter US sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil.

Seeking Equal Treatment as the EU

India’s proposal requests tariff relief in line with the European Union, which enjoys significantly lower duties. By contrast, the US recently reduced tariffs for Indonesia from 32% to 19%, prompting Indian negotiators to push for similar treatment.

“Indian exporters face a competitive disadvantage if tariffs remain higher,” a senior commerce official said. “We are asking for fair and equal access, not special treatment.”

Waiting for the US Decision

Although the framework discussions concluded around Diwali 2025, a formal announcement from the US—most likely from President Donald Trump—is still pending. Sources suggest the White House has yet to finalize its policy stance.

As the year ends, optimism persists in India’s trade circles that early 2026 may bring resolution, paving the way for stronger India-US trade cooperation and easing pressure on Indian exporters affected by high tariffs.