Indian equity markets witnessed sharp selling pressure on Wednesday after renewed geopolitical tensions in West Asia triggered a spike in global crude oil prices, dampening investor sentiment across sectors.

The BSE Sensex plunged more than 625 points to trade around 77,600, while the NSE Nifty 50 declined nearly 150 points to 24,250 during early trade. Investors remained cautious after fresh US military strikes in Iran intensified concerns over energy supplies and global economic stability.

According to market data, heavy selling was witnessed in energy, banking and automobile stocks, with Asian Paints, ITC, IndiGo, Reliance Industries, Hindustan Unilever and Bajaj Finance emerging among the major losers.

Oil Prices Fuel Market Jitters

Investor sentiment weakened after crude oil prices climbed following reports that the United States carried out airstrikes on more than 80 military targets in southern Iran despite an existing ceasefire.

Washington said the operation was conducted in response to attacks on commercial vessels transiting the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. The renewed tensions pushed Brent crude close to $76 per barrel, raising concerns over inflationary pressures and increased import costs for oil-dependent economies such as India.

Higher crude prices generally weigh on Indian markets as they increase fuel import bills, pressure corporate margins, and may impact inflation and fiscal calculations.

Sectoral Indices Trade in Red

Selling pressure was visible across most sectoral indices on the National Stock Exchange.

Except for Nifty Healthcare and Nifty Pharma, all major sectoral indices traded lower during the session. Nifty Oil & Gas recorded the steepest decline, falling around 1.64%, reflecting investor concerns over rising energy costs and market volatility.

Banking, automobile, financial services and FMCG counters also remained under pressure throughout the morning session.

Asian Markets Show Mixed Trend

Asian markets presented a mixed picture amid the geopolitical uncertainty.

South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei traded lower, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index bucked the trend with gains of more than 2%, supported by local buying interest.

The mixed performance reflected cautious investor sentiment across the region as markets assessed the potential impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Wall Street Ends Lower

US equity markets had also ended Tuesday's session in negative territory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.25%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1.16%. The S&P 500 also closed lower, indicating broader global risk aversion ahead of Wednesday's trading.

Foreign Investors Continue Buying

Despite the weak market sentiment, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net buyers.

According to provisional exchange data, FIIs purchased Indian equities worth ₹393 crore on Tuesday, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers of approximately ₹384 crore.

Over the past week, FIIs have maintained positive inflows, although their overall investment for the previous month remains in negative territory.

Previous Session Also Weak

The decline follows a subdued trading session on Tuesday, when the Sensex closed 104 points lower at 78,181, while the Nifty ended 32 points lower at 24,399, indicating continued caution among investors amid global uncertainties.

With crude oil prices remaining elevated and geopolitical developments unfolding rapidly, market participants are expected to closely monitor international events, central bank signals and institutional investment flows for further direction.

Iran has accused the United States of violating key provisions of the recently signed memorandum of understanding (MoU) during technical-level talks held in Doha, even as global oil prices continued to slide amid hopes of easing tensions.

Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the Iranian delegation raised the issue of the US violating Article 1 of the MoU, which commits both sides to ending war on all fronts. The meetings were mediated by Qatar and Pakistan.

In a separate discussion with Qatari officials and the central bank, the two sides discussed the release of approximately $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds. Iran maintained that it should have the right to use the money for purchasing goods based on its declared needs.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also rejected reports that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had been granted access to bombed nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, calling such claims false.

Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson said the talks made “positive progress” and discussions would continue after the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Meanwhile, Brent crude futures fell over 1 per cent to around $70.84 per barrel, while US WTI crude dropped to $67.75 per barrel. Analysts said easing geopolitical concerns following the Doha talks were weighing on prices.

The developments come as both sides continue indirect negotiations to stabilise the situation after the recent conflict. Further rounds of talks are expected in the coming weeks.

Global energy markets and geopolitical fronts are experiencing sharp volatility following a wave of major updates on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump issued a stern warning to domestic fuel retailers to slash gasoline prices immediately, citing a steep disconnect with falling global crude benchmarks.

Concurrently, a fragile diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran is facing severe strain. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that a direct military confrontation with Iran remains highly possible "within 2 days," even as shipping traffic tentatively resumes in the vital Strait of Hormuz under a newly signed US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

Trump Warns US Fuel Retailers Against Price Gouging

Taking to Truth Social, US President Donald Trump demanded that domestic fuel companies align pump prices with dropping crude oil values, which have dipped to approximately $68 a barrel ($72.51 for global Brent August futures).

"Gasoline retailers must get their prices down, immediately! They're too high considering that oil is now at $68 a barrel, and heading south... There will be no gouging, which is totally illegal. If retailers don't do this, big problems lie ahead," Trump posted.

Middle East Tensions: Brinkmanship and Diplomatic Manoeuvres

Despite the existence of a fresh US-Iran MoU aimed at halting mutual attacks, the regional security apparatus remains on a knife-edge.

Geopolitical Flashpoints Portfolio:

├── Israel-Iran Threat : Defense Minister Israel Katz warns of strikes within 48 hours if Iran retaliates over Lebanon.

├── West Bank Crisis   : UN warns of the worst displacement crisis since 1967 driven by settler violence.

└── Iraq Ultimatum     : Baghdad sets a strict Sept 30 deadline for pro-Iran armed groups to fully disarm.

In Tel Aviv, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are on high alert to strike targets deep inside Iran if Tehran launches missiles in response to recent Israeli operations in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, Israeli drones carried out fresh strikes in the Bint Jbeil District of southern Lebanon, though no casualties were immediately reported.

The Battle for the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz, which was closed by Iran on February 28 at the onset of the US-Israel conflict with Tehran—stranding nearly 600 ships—is seeing a gradual revival. According to tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic, around 24 to 48 major vessels are now transiting daily, up from the near-total standstill over the weekend. However, control over the waterway remains a fierce diplomatic battleground:

Strait of Hormuz Administration Conflict:

├── Iranian Stance : Chairman Ebrahim Azizi calls the strait an "inseparable part of Iranian sovereignty."

├── Omani Stance   : Proposes transit service fees (Malacca model) and states Iran holds primary demining duties.

└── US Stance      : Firmly opposes any transit or service fees imposed on international commercial shipping.

Conflicting Signals Over Doha Talks

A heavy fog of diplomatic friction surrounds Qatar, where senior US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has arrived for talks. President Trump announced that American and Iranian teams would hold significant denuclearisation meetings in Doha on Tuesday.

However, Tehran has explicitly denied entering any direct negotiation phase with Washington. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei clarified that the Iranian delegation in Doha is solely verifying the implementation of the preliminary MoU—specifically monitoring if the US is adhering to oil export waivers (Article 10) and releasing frozen Iranian assets (Article 11).

Iran maintains that formal negotiations for a comprehensive settlement will not begin until the US fully lifts its naval blockades and withdraws its forces from close proximity to Iranian territories.

Indian equity markets extended their winning streak on Thursday as investors responded positively to global developments, particularly the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The benchmark BSE Sensex gained 254.36 points to close at 77,409.98, while the NSE Nifty settled comfortably above the key 24,000-mark, reflecting sustained investor confidence.

The latest gains came after reports confirmed that the United States and Iran had signed a memorandum aimed at ending the recent conflict between the two nations. The development has been closely watched by global financial markets because of its potential impact on energy supplies and inflation trends worldwide.

According to market participants, the decline in crude oil prices played a significant role in supporting investor sentiment. Lower oil prices are generally viewed as beneficial for the Indian economy, which relies heavily on crude imports. Reduced energy costs can help contain inflation, improve corporate profitability, and ease pressure on the country's trade balance.

Oil Prices Ease

Global crude oil prices witnessed a sharp correction following the peace agreement. Brent crude, the international benchmark, slipped to around $77 per barrel, marking its lowest level in more than three months. Market data indicates that oil prices have fallen significantly from the highs recorded during the peak of the Iran conflict.

The agreement was signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian after US President Donald Trump formally endorsed the framework in Versailles, France. Reports suggest that investors interpreted the development as a major step toward restoring stability in global energy markets.

The decline in crude prices also helped offset concerns arising from weakness in certain sectors of the domestic market. Analysts believe that if oil prices remain under control, sectors dependent on fuel and transportation costs could see improved earnings prospects in the coming quarters.

Mixed Sector Performance

Despite the overall gains in benchmark indices, sectoral performance remained mixed. Information Technology stocks emerged as the weakest segment of the market, witnessing notable selling pressure during the session. Consumer Durables and Oil & Gas shares also traded in negative territory.

On the other hand, media-related stocks recorded strong gains, helping support broader market sentiment. Other sectors displayed selective buying as investors shifted their focus toward companies expected to benefit from improving economic conditions.

Asian markets delivered mixed signals. South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei posted gains, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index ended lower. Meanwhile, US markets had closed in negative territory during the previous session, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all recording losses.

Foreign institutional investors continued to remain cautious. Data showed that foreign investors have been net sellers over the past week, while domestic institutional investors maintained their buying momentum. Market experts believe strong domestic participation has helped offset foreign outflows and provided stability to Indian equities.

The Indian currency also faced pressure during the day. The rupee weakened by 21 paise and settled at 94.71 against the US dollar. Currency traders attributed the decline to global dollar strength and ongoing volatility in international markets.

Looking ahead, investors are expected to closely monitor crude oil movements, global economic developments, and institutional investment flows. Market participants will also keep an eye on upcoming corporate earnings and macroeconomic indicators that could influence trading direction in the near term.

With the Indian stock market recording gains for five consecutive sessions, attention will now shift to whether benchmark indices can sustain their momentum amid evolving global and domestic factors.

Oil prices crash over 4% after US president announces end to naval blockade in Strait of Hormuz; rupee gains 53 paise

Indian stock markets witnessed a sharp rally on Monday, 15 June, 2026, after US President Donald Trump claimed that a peace deal with Iran had been finalised. The Sensex surged 1,100 points to touch 76,677.93 level in morning trade, while the Nifty inched closer to the crucial 24,000 mark.

Markets reacted positively to Trump’s announcement that the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz would be lifted immediately. In a social media post, the president wrote, “Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow.”

Oil plunges 4%

Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, crashed more than 4% to $83.30 per barrel following the development. The sharp drop came on expectations of increased supply as the strategic waterway reopens for unrestricted movement of tankers.

According to traders, the blockade had constrained oil shipments from major Gulf producers for several months, keeping prices elevated. The sudden reversal triggered selling pressure across energy futures.

Rupee gains sharply

The Indian rupee strengthened 53 paise to 93.65 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday, benefiting from the decline in crude prices and renewed foreign interest in domestic equities. A softer dollar overseas also supported the local currency.

Forex dealers said the combination of lower oil import bill and positive sentiment around emerging markets helped the rupee post its single largest single-day gain in nearly two months.

Global markets rejoice

Asian indices mirrored the upbeat mood. Japan’s Nikkei jumped 5.41% or 3,597 points to 69,594, while South Korea’s KOSPI surged 5.30% to 8,516. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose a more modest 0.44% to 24,834.

US markets had already closed higher on Friday ahead of the announcement. The Dow Jones added 354 points to 51,202, the S&P 500 rose 0.50% to 7,431, and the Nasdaq gained 0.31% to 25,889.

FII selling persists despite rally

Interestingly, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their selling spree even as markets soared. Data showed overseas investors offloaded ₹1,082 crore on Monday alone, taking their total net selling over the past seven days to ₹9,760 crore.

Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), on the other hand, stepped in to buy ₹5,341 crore on Monday, with their net buying over the last 30 days crossing ₹1 lakh crore. Market participants said this shift underscores the growing role of local funds in stabilising the market during global uncertainty.

Trump removes naval blockade

In his post, the US president claimed that the long-awaited deal with Tehran was now complete. He also announced the immediate removal of the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, without any fees or conditions.

While details of the agreement remain unclear, sources familiar with the matter said the deal likely includes curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. Official confirmation from Iranian authorities is still awaited.

What next for oil and markets?

Analysts said the sustainability of the market rally will depend on verification of the deal and actual flow of Iranian oil into global markets. Crude prices could face further downside if supplies rise faster than expected.

For India, a net importer of oil, lower crude prices bring relief on inflation and fiscal deficit fronts. However, traders cautioned that volatility may return if geopolitical tensions resurface or if the deal unravels.

Markets will now watch for official statements from both Washington and Tehran over the next few days.

Government to release May 2026 CPI at 4pm; analysts flag Iran war, oil spike and El Niño as upside risks

India’s consumer price inflation for May 2026 is scheduled for release at 4pm on Friday, and early estimates suggest the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may touch the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target for the first time in 16 months. According to analysts and officials familiar with the data flow, rising crude prices after disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and weather risks from El Niño have pushed headline inflation upward in recent months.

Rising retail prices

Initial indicators point to a continued pickup in retail inflation after April’s 3.48% reading, which itself edged up from 3.40% in March. “We expect May CPI to be around 4.0%,” a senior economist at a private bank said on condition of anonymity, noting that energy and transport-related components are the main drivers. If the figure comes in at 4%, it will end a 15-month streak of readings below the RBI’s 4% midpoint.

Wholesale surge persists

Wholesale price pressures have already shown sharper movement. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation rose to a 42-month high of 8.30% in April from 3.88% in March, reflecting a broad-based rise in commodity costs and supply-chain disruptions. That jump has fed through to some retail items, particularly fuel, edible oils and items linked to international shipping from the Gulf.

Oil and geopolitics

Crude prices spiked sharply after the Iran war-related disruption, briefly climbing from about $70 per barrel to as high as $126. The higher oil trajectory has flowed into domestic pump prices and freight costs, lifting both direct and indirect components of the CPI. At the June Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the RBI raised its FY27 inflation projection from 4.6% to 5.1% and warned that elevated crude and possible weather disturbances were upside risks. Governor Sanjay Malhotra had pointed to these factors when explaining the committee’s caution on policy normalisation.

New base-year effect

This release will be the fifth CPI data point published under the government’s updated base year of 2024. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) shifted the base from 2012 to 2024 to reflect current consumption patterns and expanded the inflation basket. The move raised the number of goods and services tracked — from 299 to 358 items overall (259 to 308 products and 40 to 50 services) — and introduced new items such as rural house rent, CNG and PNG, OTT subscription fees, air and rail fares, and mobile tariffs.

Ground reality

On the ground in several cities early Friday, vendors and commuters reported higher transport fares and diesel-led increases in delivery charges. A vegetable wholesaler at a market in Bhopal said farmers were getting slightly better returns but retail prices for some vegetables remained sticky due to transport costs. “Trucking costs have gone up; that touches everything,” he said.

Public impact and watchpoints

A May CPI print at or near 4% will have immediate relevance for markets and policy makers. It would signal that the brief period of sub-4% headline inflation is over even as core inflation — which strips out volatile food and fuel — remains the key concern for the RBI. Higher headline inflation may harden market expectations about the pace and duration of monetary tightening, complicating the MPC’s balancing act between containing inflation and supporting growth.

What to expect next

Market participants will watch the detailed CPI release for component-wise readings: food (cereals, vegetables), fuel and light, transport, housing and services. The ministry’s release will also be scrutinised for any base-year related anomalies as the new series settles in. Analysts say momentum in oil prices and monsoon progress over June-July will be decisive for the near-term inflation path.

The MoSPI data comes as the economy is adjusting to higher global commodity costs and shifting domestic demand patterns. Observers say the RBI will remain data-driven, keeping options open depending on how inflation evolves in coming months.

Fresh hostilities between Iran and Israel send shockwaves across world markets; Brent crude surges past $97, South Korea's Kospi sinks 8%

Markets Open in the Red

Indian equity markets were jolted into a steep sell-off on Monday, 8 June 2026, as renewed hostilities between Iran and Israel sparked a sharp risk-off mood across global financial markets. The BSE Sensex crashed 719 points to settle at 73,524.26, while the NSE Nifty50 slumped roughly 1% to close at 23,123 points — its sharpest single-session decline in recent weeks.

The selling was broad-based and swift. Blue-chip names bore the brunt of the fall, with TCS, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndiGo, Bajaj Finance, and Larsen & Toubro among the prominent losers on the Sensex. Investor sentiment soured quickly through the morning session, and there was little recovery through the day.

Sectoral Pain, With Pockets of Resilience

Across the NSE's sectoral indices, the damage was widespread. Nifty Realty led the losses, tumbling nearly 2%, followed by declines across financial services, auto, and IT. Only Nifty Pharma, PSU Bank, and Healthcare managed to hold their ground and end Monday in positive territory — a thin silver lining in an otherwise bruising session.

Iran-Israel Exchange Ignites Market Fear

The trigger was unmistakable. Israel launched military strikes on Iran on Monday, following a wave of Iranian missiles targeting Israeli territory. Tehran accused Israel of repeatedly violating a ceasefire agreement through its ongoing operations in Lebanon. The exchange drew fresh condemnation internationally, with reports indicating the attacks proceeded despite a direct appeal from US President Donald Trump to de-escalate.

The geopolitical flare-up instantly introduced a new layer of uncertainty into an already fragile global environment, sending investors scrambling toward safer assets and away from equities.

Oil Prices Surge Past $97

Energy markets reacted sharply. Global benchmark Brent crude surged over 4% to $97.19 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed 3.35% to $93.89. The spike reflects growing anxiety over supply disruptions in the Middle East — a region that remains central to global oil flows. Higher crude prices also add inflationary pressure to import-heavy economies like India, compounding concerns for domestic markets.

Asian Markets in Freefall

The carnage was not limited to Dalal Street. South Korea's Kospi bore the sharpest blow, plunging 8% — a level that typically triggers circuit breakers — to settle at 7,768 points, down 375 points. Japan's Nikkei fell 3.83% to 64,040, losing over 2,500 points in a single session. Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined a more moderate 1.01% to 24,700.

Wall Street Had Already Signalled Trouble

The rout had been foreshadowed on Friday. US markets ended last week under significant pressure — the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 695 points (-1.35%) to 50,867, the S&P 500 shed 201 points (-2.64%) to 7,384, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq took the hardest hit, falling 1,122 points (-4.18%) to 25,709. That Wall Street selloff set a grim tone heading into Monday's Asian and Indian sessions.

FIIs Pull Back Sharply

Foreign institutional investors have been pulling money out of Indian equities at a notable pace. On 5 June, FIIs and FPIs recorded a net outflow of ₹8,776 crore. Over the last seven days, cumulative FII selling reached ₹27,203 crore, and over the past month the figure stands at a substantial ₹76,006 crore. Domestic institutional investors have been providing partial cushioning — buying ₹9,134 crore on the latest session and ₹95,209 crore over the past 30 days — but have not been able to fully offset the foreign outflows.

Rupee Under Pressure

The Indian rupee also weakened under the day's pressure, falling 17 paise to 95.35 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday, reflecting the combined effect of FII outflows, rising oil import costs, and broader dollar strength in a risk-averse global environment.

Market participants will closely track developments in the Middle East through the week, with any further escalation likely to deepen the sell-off across emerging market equities including India.

Israel launched strikes on military targets in western and central Iran early Monday, according to the Israeli military, after Iran fired a wave of missiles at northern Israel — a significant escalation that has reverberated across the region and pushed oil prices higher.

Strikes reported across Iran
The Israeli armed forces said the strikes hit military installations in western and central provinces. State media in Iran and local broadcasters reported explosions in Tehran, Tabriz and Isfahan in the early morning hours, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Israel used air-launched ballistic missiles in the attacks, the IRNA news agency reported.

Iranian emergency services and the Iranian Red Crescent said they were on standby to deal with any fallout. “Rapid response teams, logistical, relief and medical facilities are standing by following this morning’s strikes,” the Red Crescent said on X. There were no immediate independent confirmations of casualty figures.

Why it happened
Initial reports indicate the Israeli strikes were retaliatory. Earlier on Monday Iran launched missiles at northern Israel — the first such barrage since the April ceasefire — citing repeated Israeli actions in Lebanon that Tehran said violated the truce. Iranian officials described the missile fire as a response to what they called ongoing Israeli aggression.

According to regional analysts and Western officials, the sequence of attacks marks one of the sharpest direct exchanges between Israel and Iran since the broader round of hostilities began in spring. “This is a rapid escalation in a conflict that has largely been proxied through militia groups until now,” a Western diplomat familiar with the situation said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

US and allies respond
The United States reported shooting down two Iranian drones over the Strait of Hormuz in the past 48 hours, citing threats to international shipping, and CENTCOM said those actions were taken to protect commercial vessels. US President Donald Trump, in a telephone interview with the Financial Times, said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would have “no choice” but to accept any deal the United States negotiates with Iran. “He won’t have any choice. I call the shots,” Trump said, adding the strikes would not derail US-Iran negotiations.

Regional disruptions
Several countries moved quickly to protect civil aviation and shipping. Iran closed western airspace until further notice; neighbouring Iraq closed its airspace for 72 hours and Syria for 12 hours. Saudi authorities issued alerts in parts of Riyadh province after reports of an explosion near Al Kharj, though Iranian state media denied firing on the Saudi base.

Markets reacted immediately. Brent crude rose about 3.6% within an hour of the strikes being reported, trading near $96–97 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed more than 3%.

Ground-level picture
Residents in Tehran and Isfahan reported hearing explosions early on Monday; social media carried video clips of shockwaves and emergency responders at sites around the affected cities. Local hospitals and civil defence agencies were placed on alert as authorities assessed damage.

Analysts warned the risk of miscalculation is high. “When both sides begin striking each other’s territory directly, there’s a narrower margin to prevent wider conflict,” said a regional security analyst in New Delhi. “Escalation can spread quickly through allied militias and third-party actors.”

What happens next
Diplomatic channels are expected to be active in coming hours and days. Western capitals and regional powers are likely to call for restraint while assessing whether the strikes were targeted at military infrastructure only or intended to undermine Iran’s wider capabilities.

Iran has long demanded guarantees over its right to enrich uranium and the release of frozen assets as part of talks with the US; Tehran also accused shifting US positions of stalling negotiations. How the strikes influence those talks remains unclear — President Trump said they would not alter his push to conclude a deal.

For ordinary people in the region the immediate concern is safety and disruption: flights, cross-border trade and oil shipments may face short-term interruptions, and any sustained exchange could compound an already fragile security situation.

Sources and attribution
Details in this report are based on statements from the Israeli military, Iranian state agencies including IRNA, the Iranian Red Crescent, CENTCOM briefings, and statements from US officials and media interviews. Local eyewitness accounts and market data on crude prices were also consulted.

Tehran escalates rhetoric after fresh military exchanges in the Gulf

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued a stern warning to the United States, stating that any threat to security in the Strait of Hormuz will come at a “heavy price.” The statement follows a night of direct military exchanges, including Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting US-linked sites in Kuwait and Bahrain.

According to officials, the latest flare-up began after US forces conducted what they described as self-defence strikes on a communications tower on Iran’s Qeshm Island. In response, Iran launched multiple waves of missiles and drones toward American military installations in the region.

IRGC spokesperson’s firm message

Ibrahim al Fiqar, an IRGC spokesperson, posted on X that Iran had delivered on earlier warnings of a “different and more forceful response.” He described the recent actions as a lesson for potential aggressors. “We reiterate that any threat to the security of the Strait of Hormuz will cost the aggressor U.S. military a heavy price,” he added.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint through which nearly a fifth of global oil passes, remains at the centre of rising tensions. Any prolonged disruption here could send energy prices spiralling further.

US forces intercept attacks

US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that American and Bahraini air defence systems successfully intercepted most of the Iranian projectiles aimed at Kuwait and Bahrain. No American casualties or major damage were reported. CENTCOM described its own strike on Qeshm Island as a measured response to Iranian aggression.

Initial reports indicate that Iranian missiles also targeted areas near US naval assets, though claims of direct hits on the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain were rejected by Washington as false.

Oil prices surge amid uncertainty

Crude oil prices jumped more than one percent in early Asian trading on Wednesday. Brent crude rose to around $97 per barrel while WTI climbed near $95. Market analysts linked the spike directly to fears over potential closure or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.

The fresh clashes come even as diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran appear to continue, despite public posturing. President Donald Trump earlier dismissed reports of a breakdown in communications, calling them “fake news.”

Wider regional fallout

The Hormuz tensions are part of a broader conflict involving Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and spillover effects across the Gulf. Israeli strikes continued in southern Lebanon, including the port city of Tyre, even after claims of de-escalation. Meanwhile, Japan approved a $19 billion supplementary budget to cushion its economy from rising energy and commodity costs triggered by the Middle East crisis.

Local observers in Gulf capitals report heightened alert levels at military bases and increased naval patrols near key shipping lanes. Shipping companies have begun rerouting some vessels, adding to global supply chain concerns.

Questions over de-escalation prospects

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasised that Iran must stop actions in the Strait and reopen it fully for normal traffic. He described Tehran’s behaviour as “unlawful and illegal,” noting that the international community stands united against it.

Iran, for its part, insists its actions are retaliatory and aimed at defending its territorial waters and sovereignty. The IRGC has also claimed responses to US strikes on Iranian oil tankers near the strait.

As of Wednesday morning, the situation remains fluid. Diplomatic channels are reportedly still active, though both sides continue military posturing. Any further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could have severe consequences for global energy security and push oil prices well above the $100 mark.

Analysts say the coming days will be critical in determining whether the latest exchanges lead to a dangerous cycle or create space for renewed talks.

US Vice-President JD Vance has indicated that Washington and Tehran are nearing an agreement to ease the ongoing conflict but cautioned that significant differences remain unresolved. Speaking to the BBC, Vance described the negotiations as “very close” while stressing it was “too early to say when or if” a final deal would materialise.

The remarks come amid heightened diplomatic activity as both sides work to extend a fragile ceasefire and address Iran’s nuclear programme.

Key Sticking Points Remain

Disagreements persist over language related to uranium enrichment and the future of Iran’s nuclear activities. The US has long insisted that Iran halt production of highly enriched uranium and dispose of existing stockpiles to prevent any path toward nuclear weapons. Vance noted that negotiators are still ironing out several textual issues.

A proposed framework reportedly includes a 60-day extension of the current ceasefire and the launch of formal talks on Iran’s nuclear future. However, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency has stated that no agreement has been finalised or confirmed by Tehran’s leadership.

US Rejects Iranian Claims on Aircraft

Tensions spiked after Iranian state television claimed that its forces downed a US aircraft in Bushehr province’s Jam governorate. US Central Command (CENTCOM) firmly denied the assertion, calling it unfounded. 

The incident highlights the fragile nature of the truce even as diplomatic efforts continue. Local authorities in Iran, including Governor Masoud Tangestani, had earlier publicised the claim.

White House Optimism Grows

Despite the hurdles, senior US officials have struck a cautiously optimistic note. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller described Iranian concessions as “significant, material, and dramatic,” particularly regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled that while progress has been made, the US will not rush to ease sanctions or release frozen assets. President Donald Trump maintains firm “red lines,” especially on preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Regional Diplomacy in Play

Pakistan continues to play a mediation role. Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar is scheduled to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington today. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has thanked both Pakistan and Malaysia for their efforts, reaffirming Tehran’s commitment to diplomacy and stronger ties with Muslim and neighbouring nations.

Meanwhile, senior Iranian official Ali Bagheri Kani held discussions in Moscow with counterparts from Egypt and Brazil on the West Asia situation.

Impact on Global Markets

Oil prices edged lower on hopes of a breakthrough. Brent crude fell to around $93.36 per barrel, while WTI crude dropped to $88.27. However, Vance’s measured comments limited sharper declines, reflecting market caution over the deal’s final status.

Broader Conflict Context

The nearly four-month-long confrontation has seen multiple flashpoints. The US recently sanctioned Iran’s new Persian Gulf Strait Authority and networks allegedly funding the IRGC. Iran’s Supreme Leader has accused the US and Israel of attempting to destabilise the country internally after failing militarily.

In a related development, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy criticised the Trump administration’s approach, warning that threats to Oman over potential support for Iranian toll collection in the Strait of Hormuz signal a conflict spiralling out of control.

What Lies Ahead

Negotiators from both sides continue behind-the-scenes work. While 95 percent of issues may have been addressed according to some reports, the remaining gaps—particularly on enrichment terms—will prove decisive. 

Any final agreement would require approval from President Trump and Iran’s top leadership. Until then, officials on both sides are maintaining that “there is no deal until there is a deal.”

The outcome could significantly influence regional stability, global energy flows, and the broader West Asia security architecture. For now, cautious optimism prevails in Washington even as ground realities remain complex.

Indian equity markets remained closed on Thursday on account of Bakrid, while commodity (MCX) trading will resume later in the evening, market officials confirmed. The holiday came as Asian stock indices slid sharply and crude oil prices jumped amid renewed tensions in the Middle East, denting investor sentiment ahead of the weekend.

Markets closed for Bakrid

The BSE and NSE did not operate on Thursday because of the Bakrid public holiday, a routine annual closure. Commodity exchanges, including MCX, were inactive until late afternoon; trading is scheduled to restart at 5:00 pm IST, exchange notices showed. Stock broking desks said most overseas markets were open, leaving Indian investors to track global cues remotely.

Asian markets slide

Asian equities suffered notable declines on Thursday. South Korea’s KOSPI dropped about 3.1% in early trade, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell roughly 2.3% and Japan’s Nikkei eased around 1.2%, exchange feeds indicated. Market strategists linked the weakness to a sharp rise in crude oil and lingering geopolitical worries after fresh US-Iran tensions.

US markets firmed; mixed signals

Wall Street closed modestly higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones adding 0.36% and the Nasdaq nearly flat, data showed. But that limited uplift failed to translate into Asian gains overnight. “US markets were steady, but the spike in oil and heightened risk aversion in Asia outweighed the follow-through,” a Hong Kong-based strategist said on condition of anonymity.

FIIs net sellers

Data compiled by exchange sources showed continued foreign institutional investor (FII/FPI) outflows. Over the past 30 days, FIIs sold equities worth about ₹45,374 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing roughly ₹71,654 crore over the same period. In the latest seven-day window, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of around ₹7,069 crore, compared with DII buys of ₹15,043 crore.

Domestic indices fell earlier

On Wednesday, when markets were open, the BSE Sensex closed down 142 points at 75,868 and the Nifty 50 slipped 7 points to finish at 23,907. Banking stocks underperformed, brokers said, reflecting profit-taking after a recent rally and sensitivity to macro and liquidity expectations.

Crude surge fuels concerns

A key immediate trigger was a near 4% rise in Brent crude to about $98 per barrel on Thursday, traders said, citing renewed US-Iran tensions. Higher oil directly affects inflation and input costs globally and is particularly sensitive for India, which imports an estimated 80–85% of its crude needs. “When oil spikes, the trade deficit and inflation outlook worsen, the rupee can weaken, and corporate margins—especially for fuel-intensive sectors—come under pressure,” an equity economist noted.

Why oil hits Indian markets

Analysts explained that rising crude increases import bills, pressuring the rupee and raising costs for manufacturers, transporters and airlines. That squeezes corporate profits and can erode equity valuations. Retail inflation risks could also prompt tighter monetary stance expectations, adding to investor caution.

Ground-level cues

On the trading floors and at brokerage firms in Mumbai’s Dalal Street, traders spent the holiday monitoring late-session commodity trades and global headlines. “We were more focused on oil and flows from FIIs. With markets closed, clients expect a quiet holiday but want updates before the close in the US,” said a Mumbai broker who declined to be named.

What to watch next

Market participants will watch MCX’s evening session for any volatility in energy contracts and refine positions ahead of Friday’s truncated session. The rupee’s movement versus the dollar, upcoming US economic data, and any further geopolitical developments will be key near-term drivers. Investors will also track central bank commentary and domestic macro prints that could influence DII behavior.

For now, the Bakrid holiday gave local investors a pause to reassess exposures while global factors—especially a resurgent crude oil price—kept risk sentiment subdued. If oil maintains elevated levels into next week, strategists warn, Indian markets may face renewed pressure once trading resumes fully.

Tehran views Strait of Hormuz as its biggest strategic weapon; Israeli attacks kill 31 in southern Lebanon as ground offensive deepens

Iran is bracing for a potential new war with the United States, with senior officials describing the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran's most formidable strategic asset. According to an Al Jazeera report published Wednesday, Iranian authorities have "zero trust" in Washington, prompting a three-pronged approach focusing on military readiness, domestic support, and diplomatic manoeuvring.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) remains on high alert. While officials maintain that dialogue channels technically remain open, the military posture suggests otherwise.

Strait of Hormuz leverage

Iran considers the strategic waterway its greatest bargaining chip. A significant portion of global oil shipments transits through the strait, giving Tehran substantial leverage over the United States and its allies. Any disruption would send shockwaves through international energy markets, officials familiar with the strategy said.

Israeli strikes pound southern Lebanon

Meanwhile, Israel intensified its military campaign across the northern border, with strikes in southern Lebanon killing 31 people and injuring 40 others. The Israeli military issued dozens of forced displacement orders for towns and villages in Lebanon's south and east, triggering panic among residents.

Ground forces pushed deeper into Lebanese territory as families fled northward. The Israeli army warned residents of approximately 50 towns and villages to evacuate, including Nabatiyeh, a major southern town.

Trump criticises US media

US President Donald Trump lashed out at major American news outlets over their coverage of the Iran conflict. Speaking to reporters, Trump claimed that even a complete American military victory would be portrayed by the media as an Iranian win. The remarks drew mixed reactions from political observers.

Four major developments in 24 hours

The past day saw several significant escalations. Iran claimed its forces targeted US MQ-9B and RQ-4 drones and fired on an F-35 fighter jet that allegedly entered Iranian airspace. The Pentagon has not issued an official response.

Internet services were partially restored in Iran after 88 days. NetBlocks described this as the longest national internet blackout in modern history, severely affecting businesses and digital services across the country.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a security meeting with defence officials, focusing on the northern border and Lebanon operations, while intensifying attacks on Hezbollah targets. The US also attacked Iranian mine-laying boats near the Strait of Hormuz and missile bases in Bandar Abbas. Centcom described the operation as an act of self-defence.

Diplomatic channel remains alive

Despite the escalating tensions, US and Iranian officials continue talks through mediators. People in Tehran appear hopeful about a potential understanding—the Iranian currency has appreciated more than five per cent this week, reflecting cautious optimism.

Large numbers of US military aircraft remain stationed at Israeli airports, including Ben Gurion and Ramon, where dozens of fighter jets and refuelling planes have reportedly affected normal flight operations.