New SIPRI Yearbook 2026 reveals India expanded its nuclear stockpile to around 190 warheads by early 2026, while defence spending climbed to $92.1 billion, placing it fifth globally.

India has quietly but steadily expanded its nuclear arsenal over the past year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's annual yearbook released Monday. The SIPRI Yearbook 2026 puts India's warhead count at approximately 190 by early 2026, up from earlier estimates, with New Delhi increasingly training its long-range deterrent capabilities toward China even as its strategic posture continues to be shaped by the rivalry with Pakistan.

The report, one of the most closely watched annual assessments of global military and nuclear trends, paints a picture of an India that is simultaneously building up its deterrent, spending more on defence than ever before, and navigating one of the most dangerous military crises in its recent history.

Op Sindoor: An 'Unusually Severe' Moment

SIPRI's characterisation of Operation Sindoor — India's military strikes against Pakistan in May 2025 — is notable. The institute described the confrontation as "an unusually severe military crisis" between two nuclear-armed neighbours, a rare and pointed assessment in diplomatic language.

According to the yearbook, India's strikes targeted Pakistani air and missile bases that were "likely to have nuclear-related roles." That detail alone underscores how close the two sides came to crossing lines that have historically been treated as inviolable. SIPRI did note, however, that both governments took visible steps to prevent the situation from spiralling further.

Perhaps equally significant was what the report said about cyber operations. For the first time, India and Pakistan incorporated cyberattacks into active military conflict during the crisis — a development SIPRI flagged as a marker of how deterrence and military competition in South Asia are evolving well beyond conventional munitions.

Fifth-Largest Defence Spender

India's defence expenditure rose to $92.1 billion in 2025, a jump of 8.9 per cent over the previous year. Only the United States, China, Russia, and Germany spent more. The figure reflects both ongoing modernisation programmes and the operational demands of a more assertive posture across multiple fronts.

India also held its position as the world's second-largest importer of major arms over the 2021–25 period, accounting for 8.2 per cent of global arms imports. Among the top five importers — Ukraine, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan — those nations together absorbed 35 per cent of all major weapons systems traded globally during the period.

A World Leaning Harder on Nuclear Weapons

The broader picture SIPRI draws is sobering. The nine nuclear-armed states — the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel — are collectively leaning more heavily on their arsenals as instruments of national power. The institute described this as a reversal of decades of arms-reduction efforts.

As of early 2026, those nine states held a combined 12,187 nuclear warheads. Of these, 9,745 were in active military stockpiles, 4,012 were deployed with operational forces, and between 2,100 and 2,200 were on ballistic missiles in a state of high alert. The United States and Russia together accounted for roughly 86 per cent of the global total.

While the overall number of warheads worldwide continues to fall, SIPRI noted that this decline is driven almost entirely by the US and Russia dismantling old, retired weapons — not by any reduction in active capability.

China and Pakistan Also Building Up

China expanded its stockpile from around 600 to approximately 620 warheads during 2025, continuing a major modernisation programme. Pakistan, too, was accumulating fissile material and developing new delivery systems throughout the year, with SIPRI suggesting its arsenal could grow significantly over the coming decade.

The report also pointed to submarine-based nuclear delivery as a growing priority, particularly among the four nuclear-armed states in the Indo-Pacific — a category that directly implicates India, China, and Pakistan.

India has primarily relied on plutonium for its warheads, a production pathway it shares with Israel, according to SIPRI.

Escalation at the Border After Deadly Suicide Attacks

In a major escalation of regional tensions, Pakistan airstrikes in Afghanistan early Sunday reportedly killed at least 16 civilians, including women and children. Islamabad said the strikes targeted militant hideouts linked to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic State, calling the operation a direct retaliation for recent suicide bombings inside Pakistan.

According to Pakistan’s military, seven militant camps were hit in what officials described as an “intelligence-based operation.” However, Afghan authorities and local media claim that residential areas were also struck, resulting in heavy civilian casualties.

The incident has sharply raised tensions between the two neighbouring countries at a time when cross-border violence is already surging.

Civilian Casualties Reported in Nangarhar and Kunar

Afghan media outlets reported that a residential house in Nangarhar province was hit during the airstrikes. Local sources claim that 23 members of the same family were buried under debris while they were asleep. Rescue teams reportedly pulled out only four survivors.

The International Human Rights Foundation stated that at least 16 people were killed in the strikes, though Afghan authorities have yet to confirm final casualty figures.

Additional strikes were reported in:

 Kunar province

 Paktika province

Afghanistan’s Defence Ministry condemned the operation as a “violation of sovereignty” and warned that it would respond “at the appropriate time.”

Pakistan, however, denied targeting civilians and insisted that only terrorist infrastructure was hit.

Why Pakistan Launched the Airstrikes

The Pakistan airstrikes in Afghanistan came hours after a suicide bombing targeted a military convoy in Bannu district, killing two soldiers, including a lieutenant colonel.

Recent attacks have intensified Pakistan’s security concerns:

 February 6: A suicide bombing at a mosque in Islamabad killed 31 people.

 February 16: A vehicle packed with explosives hit a security checkpoint in Bajaur, killing 11 soldiers and a child.

Pakistan considers the TTP its biggest internal security threat. The group has carried out hundreds of attacks since the Taliban returned to power in Kabul in 2021.

Islamabad has repeatedly accused Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government of allowing TTP fighters to operate from Afghan soil — allegations Kabul denies.

The Doha Agreement and International Pressure

Pakistan has urged the international community to pressure the Taliban to honour the Doha Agreement signed in 2020. Under the agreement, Afghan territory was not to be used for attacks against other nations.

The deal paved the way for the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. However, since the Taliban takeover in 2021, cross-border militant activity has reportedly increased.

Security experts say the latest Pakistan airstrikes in Afghanistan signal a shift toward more aggressive cross-border operations.

“If diplomatic pressure fails, limited military strikes could become a recurring pattern,” says a South Asia security analyst.

What This Means for Regional Stability

The latest escalation highlights three major concerns:

 Rising militant violence in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region

 Fragile Pakistan-Afghanistan diplomatic ties

 Risk of broader military confrontation

With Afghanistan warning of retaliation and Pakistan vowing to eliminate cross-border threats, the situation remains volatile.

As militant violence surges across the region, the Pakistan airstrikes in Afghanistan mark one of the most serious escalations since the Taliban’s return to power — raising fears of prolonged instability in South Asia.