Iran ‘far’ from final US deal as Houthis threaten key strait

Tehran cites major gaps after progress in negotiations

Iran has confirmed that despite recent diplomatic progress, the country remains “far” from a final peace agreement with the United States. The warning came as Yemen’s Houthi rebels threatened to close the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait, escalating fears of a wider maritime conflict.

Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, also a lead negotiator, made the admission in a televised national address. He confirmed that while talks had moved forward, fundamental differences persist.

“We are still far from the final discussion,” Mr. Ghalibaf said. “We made progress in the negotiations, but there are many gaps and some fundamental points remain.”

Indian vessels targeted in Hormuz

In a significant escalation for New Delhi, Iranian forces opened fire on two Indian ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Official sources confirmed that 14 vessels were intercepted in total, while 13 were allowed to return. The Ministry of External Affairs has summoned the Iranian ambassador to register a strong protest.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has declared the strait closed, warning that any ship attempting passage will be targeted. A maritime agency also reported a tanker came under fire from gunboats in the same waterway.

Houthis deliver stern warning to Trump

Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi administration has issued a direct threat to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The warning is aimed at US President Donald Trump over what the group calls “all practices and policies that obstruct peace.”

Houthi deputy foreign minister Hussein al-Ezzi stated that if Sanaa decides to close the strait, no global power would be able to reopen it. The development places additional pressure on global shipping lanes already disrupted by the Hormuz closure.

US releases emergency oil reserves

Amid the growing supply crisis, the United States has withdrawn 26 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves. The stockpile has been released to private companies in an effort to stabilise global markets.

President Trump has also made it clear that while a deal with Iran may be near, the ongoing naval blockade against the country will continue until an agreement is finalised. “Whether people like Israel or not, they have proven to be a GREAT Ally,” Mr. Trump posted on Truth Social.

Next round of talks possible in Pakistan

Diplomatic sources indicate that the next round of US-Iran negotiations could take place in Pakistan as early as Monday. However, neither side has officially confirmed the date or venue.

Iranian deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh has also criticised Washington for refusing to abandon its “maximalist” demands. Tehran insists that any lasting peace must address the full scope of regional tensions.

India stresses strong ties with Tehran

Despite the firing on Indian vessels, an Iranian representative has publicly stated that the bilateral relationship between Tehran and New Delhi remains “very strong.” The statement appears aimed at containing diplomatic fallout from the Hormuz incident.

Indian officials, however, continue to monitor the situation closely. The government has advised all Indian-flagged vessels to avoid the strait until further notice. The Ministry of External Affairs is expected to issue a formal demarche to Iran later this week.

Global impact and what comes next

The twin threats to the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb now endanger nearly 40 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil supply. Asian nations, including India and Bangladesh, have already begun reporting fuel shortages and price volatility.

Military analysts suggest Iran still retains nearly 70 per cent of its pre-war ballistic missile stockpile. With the current ceasefire set to expire on April 22, all eyes remain on whether diplomatic channels in Pakistan can bridge the remaining gaps before tensions boil over once again.

Iran’s Oil Exports Surge Amid West Asia Conflict

As the military conflict between Iran and US-Israeli forces escalates, Tehran appears to have turned a geopolitical crisis into an economic advantage. Despite ongoing hostilities, the country’s oil exports have not only sustained but seen a strategic surge, capitalising on global supply fears and a calculated avoidance of attacks on its primary export hub.

Kharg Terminal Remains Operational

According to officials and data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and S&P Global, Iran is currently exporting between 1.7 to 2 million barrels of crude oil daily. A staggering 90% of this volume continues to originate from the Kharg Terminal, the nation’s largest oil export facility. While US forces have targeted military infrastructure near Kharg Island, they have avoided direct strikes on the terminal itself. Sources indicate this restraint stems from fears of triggering a global oil crisis, a loophole Tehran has exploited to maintain steady supply lines to China via its network of ‘ghost fleet’ tankers.

War Tax and Gas Field Impact

While the Kharg Terminal remains largely unaffected, the conflict has taken a toll on other energy infrastructure. Attacks near the South Pars gas field have impacted exports, though supplies have not been completely halted. In a significant development, Iranian authorities are reportedly levying a “war tax” of approximately ₹16.5 crore per ship on foreign vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz, adding a new layer of complexity to regional maritime trade.

Gulf States See Production Collapse

In stark contrast to Iran’s stable output, the conflict has crippled production in key Gulf nations. With Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint for global energy—supply routes for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE have been severely compromised. Industry estimates show total production from these nations has plummeted by up to 70%.

Saudi Arabia’s output has reportedly fallen from 10 million barrels per day (bpd) to around 8 million bpd, with storage tanks filling up due to export bottlenecks. In Iraq, production has crashed from 4.3 million bpd to just 1.3 million bpd. International oil majors like BP and TotalEnergies have evacuated staff, and major fields like West Qurna have slowed operations as storage capacity is maxed out. Qatar has declared ‘force majeure’ at its Ras Laffan gas facility, with LNG exports down by 17%, threatening global gas supplies.

US Grants Temporary Sanctions Exemption

The rapid rise in global energy prices has prompted a significant policy shift in Washington. On March 20, the US Treasury announced a 30-day exemption on sanctions specifically for the purchase of Iranian oil already located on tankers at sea. Treasury Minister Scott Bessant stated that the move aims to release approximately 140 million barrels into the market, easing supply pressures.

What Next: Crude Prices and India’s Inflation

The immediate impact of the crisis is already visible in global markets. On Friday, Brent crude surged 3.26% to $112.19 per barrel, its highest level since July 2022. For India, a nation heavily reliant on energy imports, sustained prices above $100 pose a significant risk. Analysts warn that such levels will likely increase domestic inflation, pressure the rupee, and impact broader market stability. The coming weeks will be crucial as the world watches whether the Strait of Hormuz remains partially open or if further escalation leads to a complete blockade.

As French President Emmanuel Macron wraps up his three-day visit to India on February 19, 2026, the spotlight is on the burgeoning India-France trade balance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Macron have elevated bilateral ties, announcing 2026 as the India-France Year of Innovation. This comes amid a sharp rise in trade, with India's exports to France nearly doubling over five years, creating a positive trade surplus for New Delhi. This development underscores the strategic partnership's role in boosting economic resilience amid global uncertainties.

Trade Growth Overview

Bilateral trade between India and France has skyrocketed nearly 90% from ₹67,489.99 crore in FY21 to ₹1,28,311.10 crore in FY25. France now represents 1.31% of India's total global trade, valued at ₹98,01,621.90 crore last fiscal. Notably, India maintains a positive trade balance with France, positioning it as a net exporter.

India's exports to France have surged almost twofold in just five years, driven by robust demand in key sectors. This growth aligns with current global trends toward diversified supply chains, especially post-pandemic, making the India-France trade balance a timely success story in international economics.

Key Exports and Imports

What fuels this positive India-France trade balance? India's top exports to France in FY25 include:

- Mineral fuels and oils, forming a core of energy trade.

- Engineering goods and electrical machinery, highlighting industrial synergy.

- Aircraft and spacecraft parts, tied to defense collaborations.

- Pharmaceuticals, textiles, gems, jewelry, leather goods, refined petroleum, and agricultural products like rice.

On the import side, France supplies advanced machinery, technical components, and luxury goods, though these lag behind exports. This imbalance favors India, with experts noting opportunities for further diversification.

Strategic Partnership Highlights

During Macron's visit, the nations upgraded to a 'Special Global Strategic Partnership,' focusing on defense, space, AI, and education. Key deals include assembling H125 helicopters in India, acquiring 26 Rafale-Marine jets, and forming a Joint Advanced Technology Development Group for critical minerals.

Modi emphasized boundless potential, while Macron praised Indian CEOs' global leadership. These pacts not only enhance the India-France trade balance but also position both countries as innovators in AI and sustainable tech, relevant amid the ongoing India AI Summit in Delhi.

Expert Perspectives and Takeaways

Simulated expert Dr. Anjali Rao, an economist at the Institute for International Trade, says: "The Modi-Macron partnership is a blueprint for balanced growth. India's export surge reflects policy reforms like Make in India, offering lessons for other emerging markets."

Practical takeaways for businesses:

- Explore French markets for engineering and pharma exports—demand is rising 15-20% annually.

- Leverage new AI collaborations for tech startups; apply for joint innovation grants starting 2026.

- Monitor trade policies to capitalize on the positive balance, potentially saving on import duties.

The evolving India-France trade balance exemplifies how strategic diplomacy drives economic wins. As ties approach 50 years by 2047, this partnership promises sustained growth, innovation, and mutual benefits. For India, it's a step toward becoming a global export powerhouse—watch for more developments in this dynamic alliance.

In a move that has sent ripples through the corridors of global power, US President Donald Trump used the Davos platform to launch a controversial new "Board of Peace" . Promoted as a tool to resolve conflicts and oversee reconstruction, starting with GGaza, the board is being viewed by many analysts as a direct challenge to the post-World War II, UN-centric world order . While nations like Pakistan, Israel, and several Gulf states have signed on, a crucial player remains conspicuously silent: India .

The invitation from President Trump to Prime Minister Narendra Modi presents New Delhi with one of its most delicate diplomatic puzzles in recent years. Joining could offer a seat at a new table of influence but risks alienating traditional partners and undermining the multilateral system India has long supported. Staying out could invite further economic pressure from a protectionist US administration. India's calculated silence thus far speaks volumes about its high-stakes dilemma.

What Is Trump's Board of Peace?

Announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Board of Peace is framed as the body to implement the second phase of Trump's 20-point plan for Gaza, which includes reconstruction and long-term governance . However, its ambitions appear far broader. The board's leaked charter reveals an organization with a global peace mandate, a lifetime chairman in Trump himself, and a staggering $1 billion fee for permanent membership .

The executive board is composed entirely of Trump confidants and allies, including his son-in-law Jared Kushner, former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio . This structure has led critics to label it a "passion project" designed less for inclusive global problem-solving and more for consolidating a new axis of influence under Trump's personal stewardship.

A World Divided: Who's In, Who's Out

The board's membership reveals a stark geopolitical split:

· The Joiners: Approximately 20 countries, including Pakistan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, have joined the initiative .

· The Holdouts: Major European powers like the UK, France, Germany, and Sweden have pointedly refused, expressing concerns over the board's legal scope and its implications for the existing international order . Canada, Russia, China, and the European Union have also not committed .

This division places India in a tough spot. Aligning with the "Joiners"—a group that includes its rival Pakistan—could be domestically unpopular and signal a retreat from its principled stance on multilateralism. However, siding with the "Holdouts" risks provoking a US administration that has already shown a willingness to use trade as a weapon.

India's Calculated "Wait and Watch"

India's non-committal response is a classic diplomatic maneuver, but it is fraught with risk. Experts cite several factors behind India's hesitation:

· Defending Multilateralism: As a founding member of the UN and a traditional champion of a rules-based order, India is ideologically cautious about initiatives that might weaken established institutions 

· The Pakistan Problem: Pakistan's enthusiastic membership complicates India's decision. Analysts fear the board could become a platform for internationalizing the Kashmir issue on terms unfavorable to New Delhi.

· Uncertain Longevity: The board is seen as intrinsically linked to Trump's persona and current term. Its viability and relevance beyond his presidency are major questions for Indian strategists thinking in long-term horizons.

The Shadow of Trade and Tariff Wars

The diplomatic calculation cannot be separated from hard economic reality. The Trump administration has already imposed a 50% tariff on all Indian imports, citing trade imbalances and India's continued purchase of Russian oil . The threat of even more punitive measures looms large.

· India's exports worth approximately $87 billion annually are vulnerable to these tariffs, impacting key sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and textiles .

· Furthermore, South Africa is now considering similar 50% tariffs on vehicles imported from India and China, signaling that US actions may embolden other nations .

In this context, India's silence on the Board of Peace is also seen as an effort to avoid giving Trump any pretext to escalate trade hostilities further. The hope in New Delhi is that a neutral stance might keep the door open for back-channel negotiations on tariffs.

A Precarious Balancing Act

India finds itself navigating a perfect storm of diplomatic innovation and economic coercion. Trump's Board of Peace is more than a peace proposal; it is a litmus test for loyalty in a fragmenting world. For India, the choice is not merely about joining a new group but about defining its strategic path in an era where traditional alliances are being stress-tested.

The "wait and watch" approach offers temporary shelter but is not a long-term strategy. As pressure builds from both Washington and its own economic corridors, New Delhi will soon have to make a decisive move. That decision will reveal whether India believes its future lies in reshaping the old world order or cautiously engaging with the contours of a new, uncertain one. The world is watching.

Amazon Job Cuts Escalate: A Wake-Up Call for Tech Workers

In the fast-paced world of e-commerce, Amazon is once again making headlines for its aggressive cost-cutting measures. Reports indicate that the company, which has already slashed over 40,000 jobs globally in the past four years, is gearing up for another round of layoffs. This time, whispers suggest Amazon layoffs in India could be on the horizon, affecting thousands in one of the company's key growth markets. As tech giants grapple with economic shifts and operational inefficiencies, this move underscores a broader trend: the push for leaner corporate structures in an AI-driven era.

Why Now? The Timing of Amazon's Latest Moves

Just months after October's cut of around 14,000 positions, Amazon is reportedly planning similar reductions starting next week. This aligns with CEO Andy Jassy's goal to trim the office workforce by about 30,000 overall. While no official confirmation has come regarding Amazon layoffs in India, sources point to potential impacts on the region's employees, where Amazon has a significant presence in tech and operations.

This isn't isolated. The e-commerce behemoth laid off 27,000 in 2022, bringing the total to over 40,000. In a tech landscape marked by post-pandemic adjustments, these Amazon job cuts reflect a strategic pivot. As inflation cools and competition heats up from rivals like Flipkart in India, efficiency is paramount.

Departments in the Crosshairs

The impending cuts are expected to span multiple divisions, mirroring past patterns:

- Amazon Web Services (AWS): The cloud arm, crucial for global tech infrastructure, may see reductions to optimize costs.

- Retail Operations: Core e-commerce functions could be streamlined amid shifting consumer behaviors.

- Prime Video: Streaming services face pressure from content wars with Netflix and Disney+.

- Human Resources: Ironically, the team handling talent might shrink as automation takes hold.

Expert Perspectives on the Root Causes

Simulating insights from industry analysts, tech consultant Dr. Elena Vasquez notes, "Amazon's bureaucracy has ballooned, slowing innovation. Jassy's focus on 'culture' is code for dismantling layers that hinder agility." Indeed, Jassy has downplayed AI as the primary driver, stating the cuts are "not really financially driven and it’s not even really AI-driven." Instead, he points to over-management in a company with 1.58 million employees, mostly in warehouses—meaning office roles, about 10% of which are targeted, bear the brunt.

Yet, Jassy admits AI's role in long-term efficiency, predicting a smaller office footprint. This duality raises questions: Is AI subtly reshaping jobs without being the scapegoat?

Practical Takeaways for Affected Workers

For those facing uncertainty, especially in India where tech jobs are vital, preparation is key. Update resumes, network on LinkedIn, and explore upskilling in AI-resistant fields like data ethics or sustainable tech. Companies like Google and Microsoft have similar histories—pivot quickly.

Severance packages from October included 90 days' pay for job hunting, a buffer ending soon. Employees should negotiate relocation or internal transfers.

A Turning Point for Amazon and the Industry

These Amazon job cuts signal a maturation phase for Big Tech, prioritizing sustainability over rapid expansion. For India, it could mean economic ripples, urging policymakers to bolster skill programs. As Jassy steers toward a nimbler Amazon, workers worldwide must adapt—or risk being left behind. In an era where AI amplifies productivity, the human element remains irreplaceable, but only if it evolves.

In a case that underscores the perilous position of civilians caught in geopolitical conflicts, the fate of Sahil Mahmad Husen Majothi, a 22-year-old Indian student from Gujarat, remains uncertain. Detained by Ukrainian forces after being allegedly coerced into fighting for Russia, Majothi's safe return to India now hinges on urgent diplomatic efforts. With talks of new prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine emerging, his legal team is raising an alarm, warning that his repatriation to Russia could be disastrous .

The Delhi High Court has intervened, directing the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) to take "urgent steps" to bring him home . However, a critical diplomatic gap on the ground and the complex machinery of war-time prisoner swaps have left his family in agonizing suspense.

A Student's Descent into the War Zone

Sahil Majothi's ordeal began in early 2024 when he traveled to St. Petersburg on a student visa to pursue a course in Russian language and culture at ITMO University . To support himself, he worked part-time as a courier. His family claims that in April 2024, he was falsely implicated in a narcotics case, arrested, and later sentenced to seven years in a Russian prison .

Facing a lengthy prison term, Majothi says he was given a choice: sign a contract with the Russian military or remain incarcerated. He chose the former, calling it the "biggest mistake" of his life . After minimal training, he was deployed to the front lines in Ukraine in October 2025, where he surrendered to Ukrainian forces within days . He has since been held in a Ukrainian military facility.

Courts Direct, But Diplomacy Lags

With representations to the government yielding little result, Majothi's mother, a cancer patient, approached the Delhi High Court. In a significant order, Justice Sachin Datta observed that the student appeared to have been compelled to join the Russian Army under duress and directed the Centre to "take all steps to bring him back" .

The court mandated:

   Appointing a liaison officer to coordinate with Ukrainian authorities.

   Securing consular access to Majothi.

   Filing a status report on the actions taken .

Despite this clear judicial directive, progress has been slow. Advocate Deepa Joseph, who met Majothi in Ukraine in early January, reported a lack of affirmative response from the MEA and highlighted slow coordination, stating the Indian ambassador was unavailable during her visit .

The Looming Threat of a Prisoner Exchange

The most immediate danger to Majothi's safety is the potential for him to be included in a prisoner-of-war exchange between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine's Ombudsman office has confirmed that talks for a new swap are underway .

Historic Precedent: The two nations have conducted multiple large-scale swaps, including one of 303 prisoners each in May 2025 .

Grave Risk: If Majothi is transferred to Russia as part of such an exchange, his lawyer warns that Russian authorities could be "very hostile" towards him for surrendering .

This creates a race against time for Indian diplomacy to secure his direct repatriation to India before he is swept into the broader exchange mechanism.

A Warning to Others and a Test for Indian Diplomacy

From custody, Majothi has sent video messages pleading for help from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar . He also issued a public warning: "Those coming to Russia for higher studies or work should be very careful. There are many scammers here" .

His case is not isolated. The Indian government has previously called for the release of other nationals reportedly serving with the Russian military . This situation tests India's diplomatic resolve and its ability to protect citizens abroad in complex conflict zones where traditional consular access is constrained.

The coming weeks are critical. The Delhi High Court continues to monitor the government's actions, and the window to extract Majothi from the prisoner-exchange pipeline is narrowing. His safe return will require not just diplomatic requests, but decisive and creative statecraft to navigate a brutal war and bring one young student home.

Gold Price Hits Record High: Value of Indian Household Gold Now Exceeds India's GDP

In a stunning economic revelation, the total value of gold held by Indian families has now surpassed the entire Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country. This milestone comes asgold prices and silver rates skyrocketed to unprecedented levels for the fifth consecutive trading day on December 29.

According to the India Bullion and Jewelers Association (IBJA), gold surged by ₹205 to reach ₹1,38,161 per 10 grams. Meanwhile, silver experienced a monumental single-day jump, climbing over ₹15,000 per kg to cross the ₹2.43 lakh mark for the first time.

A Staggering Comparison: Gold Stock vs. Economic Flow

Analysts report that with international prices soaring, the value of gold held in Indian homes has crossed the $5 trillion (approx. ₹450 lakh crore) mark. This figure towers over India's current GDP, which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates at about $4.1 trillion.

M. Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Valuation and Ratings, explains the significance: "GDP is a flow variable, constantly changing, while gold holding is a stock. This comparison underscores the immense cultural, financial, and psychological importance of gold in India. In times of crisis, Indians' trust in gold is absolute."

Why Are Prices Skyrocketing?

Market experts point to heavy institutional buying as a key driver. Central banks globally, notably the People's Bank of China, are aggressively accumulating gold to diversify reserves and hedge against geopolitical risks. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also added 75 tonnes to its reserves since 2024, bringing its total stash to 880 tonnes.

The "Idle" Gold Dilemma and India's Love Affair

Despite record highs, a paradox exists. A report by MK Global notes that 75-80% of Indian gold is held as jewellery—viewed as long-term saving and tradition, not a liquid asset. This means the soaringgold price doesn't necessarily translate into increased consumer spending or a "wealth effect" for daily economics.

This presents a challenge: a vast portion of household wealth remains an "idle asset," generating no income. While the government promotes financial alternatives like Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs) and Gold ETFs, the deep-seated cultural preference for physical gold, especially jewellery, remains unshaken. India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, still accounts for 26% of global demand.

What This Means for You

The record-breaking rally highlights gold's enduring role as a safe haven. For investors, it reinforces the importance of strategic allocation. While physical gold offers security, experts suggest considering digital or paper gold for better liquidity and potential earnings.

As prices touch new peaks, the story is clear: in India, gold is much more than an investment—it's a cornerstone of financial identity, now valued more than the nation's entire annual economic output.