A low-pressure area over northeast Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Chhattisgarh is likely to produce widespread rain and potentially disruptive weather across both states, the India Meteorological Department has said.

According to the IMD’s August 9 bulletin, the associated cyclonic circulation extends up to 7.6 km above mean sea level and tilts southwestwards with height—conditions capable of sustaining intense rain-producing clouds.

The monsoon trough is also passing through Gwalior and the centre of the low-pressure system before extending towards Puri and the east-central Bay of Bengal. These two systems are expected to keep moisture concentrated over central India.

Heavy Rain Warning for MP and Chhattisgarh

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places across Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on August 9. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning are also expected.

In Madhya Pradesh, gusty winds could reach speeds of 30–40 kmph during thunderstorms.

For August 10, the IMD has forecast:

• Heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places in western Madhya Pradesh.
• Heavy rain at isolated places in eastern Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
• Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30–40 kmph in Madhya Pradesh.
• Lightning at isolated places in Chhattisgarh.

Heavy rainfall may continue at isolated places in Madhya Pradesh on August 11, although its intensity and distribution could change as the low-pressure system moves.

Possible Impact

The IMD has warned that intense spells could cause waterlogging in low-lying areas, reduced visibility and temporary disruption to road and rail traffic.

Strong winds and saturated soil may damage tree branches, small trees, standing crops, kutcha houses and other vulnerable structures. Localised flooding is possible where drainage is inadequate.

Residents should avoid sheltering under trees during thunderstorms, stay away from waterlogged roads and follow district-level alerts. Farmers should secure harvested produce and postpone spraying or other field operations during thunderstorms.

Forecast conditions may change, so readers should check the latest district nowcast before travelling.

The southwest monsoon has become fully active across Chhattisgarh after remaining sluggish for several days, with good to heavy rainfall expected in most parts of the state over the next seven days.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast widespread rain accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning in the coming week. Dense cloud clusters are currently visible over central and northern parts of the state, including Raipur, Bilaspur, and Surguja regions.

In the last 24 hours, moderate to heavy rain occurred in parts of Surguja and Bastar divisions, while light showers were recorded elsewhere. The recent activity has brought some relief from the heat, though the overall June rainfall remains significantly below normal.

According to data, the state should have received around 188 mm (7.4 inches) of rain by June 30, but only 66.2 mm (2.5 inches) has been recorded so far — a massive 65 per cent deficit. However, with the monsoon now covering the entire state, officials hope the shortfall will be made up in the coming weeks.

Tragedies Amid Rain

The monsoon activity has also claimed lives. In Surguja’s Dhaurpur police station area, lightning struck a tree under which three children and a youth were standing, killing two children and the youth while injuring another child. In Bilaspur, strong winds and rain caused a large tree to fall near the collector’s bungalow, damaging a car, though the occupants escaped unhurt.

The weather department has advised people to avoid open areas during thunderstorms and take necessary precautions.

As the monsoon gains momentum, farmers are hoping for consistent rainfall to support kharif sowing. The coming week will be crucial for rainfall distribution across the state.

India's pre-monsoon and monsoon weather split sharply down the middle on Monday — heavy rainfall and lightning fatalities in the north and east, even as heatwave conditions gripped six states simultaneously. At least 13 people were killed in lightning strikes across Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh.

The southwest monsoon, which had advanced into Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat on June 24, has since stalled over both states. The India Meteorological Department said the monsoon has covered 22 states so far and is expected to reach the remaining parts of the country by July 5.

Uttar Pradesh bore a heavy toll. Heavy rain was reported across 15 districts including Lucknow, with weather conditions turning favourable for further monsoon advance. In Mirzapur, an underpass was submerged under nearly three feet of water, disrupting traffic through the day. Five people were killed and two injured in Firozabad district after a tree fell on an e-rickshaw. Separate lightning strikes claimed two more lives in Basti and Maharajganj.

Bihar saw thunderstorms across 15 districts, with lightning strikes killing four people and injuring 24 others in Sitamarhi, Munger, and Patna. The state's weather office has now issued an orange alert for rain across 27 districts, with intermittent showers expected to intensify from Tuesday and heavy rainfall forecast for July 1, particularly in Patna, Nalanda, Arwal, and Jehanabad. Winds of 30-40 kmph are expected during this spell.

In Chhattisgarh, two children and a young man died after being struck by lightning in Surguja district on Monday evening. Madhya Pradesh, meanwhile, recorded rainfall across 12 districts even as weather activity intensified across the central belt.

Assam has been hit hardest by flooding. The Assam State Disaster Management Authority said more than 22,000 people across six districts have been affected, with Dhemaji district worst hit — nearly 16,000 people impacted and 96 villages submerged. Roughly 1,690 hectares of farmland and over 48,000 livestock have also been affected. The overflowing Leku River inundated Assam's Jonai area, submerging National Highway-515. Union Home Minister Amit Shah spoke with Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu to review the flood situation, as incessant rain also triggered landslides in parts of Arunachal Pradesh.

Even as flooding and lightning deaths mounted in the east, heatwave conditions persisted stubbornly across Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and Gujarat. Rohtak in Haryana recorded the country's highest maximum temperature at 43.5°C, followed by Delhi at 43.4°C and Banda in Uttar Pradesh at 43.2°C. Khajuraho in Madhya Pradesh touched 41.2°C.

The IMD has forecast heavy rainfall for July 1 over Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Odisha, Kerala, Goa, Tamil Nadu, and the northeastern states, with strong winds of 50-60 kmph expected in Bihar and gusty conditions likely in Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, eastern Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu. Orange alerts for heavy rain have been issued for Sikkim, Goa, Telangana, and coastal Karnataka. Heatwave conditions are expected to persist over Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and the Nagpur-Amravati belt of Maharashtra for a fifth consecutive day.

After a brief two-day lull, the weather took a dramatic turn in Chhattisgarh's Raigarh district on Tuesday evening. Massive convective thunderclouds enveloped the skies, bringing heavy downpours accompanied by intense lightning and strong winds. The sudden meteorological shift has brought much-needed respite to local residents who were struggling under severe oppressive humidity, while signaling a structural drop in regional temperatures.

According to the Meteorological Department, this active weather pattern is expected to persist, with intermittent light-to-moderate rains and localized squalls predicted throughout the upcoming week.

Temperature Set to Plunge by 4 Degrees Over 48 Hours

The regional climate dashboard had logged a maximum temperature of $37.3^\circ\text{C}$ on Monday, causing widespread discomfort due to high moisture levels. However, the arriving rain bands are already pushing the mercury down.

Raigarh Temperature Trajectory Forecast:

├── Monday Baseline: 37.3°C (Peak humidity)

├── Tuesday Target : 35.9°C (Drop of ~2°C post-rain)

└── Wednesday Target: 33.0°C (Further drop of 2°C)

This progressive cooling is expected to permanently dissolve the residual pre-monsoon heat crust, transitioning the district into a much cooler evening cycle.

Widespread Showers Reported Across Rural Interior Belts

The thunderstorm was not restricted to urban Raigarh. Sub-divisional monitoring stations reported substantial precipitation and strong winds across the rural and forested interiors of the district.

Significant rainfall and heavy wind speeds were tracked across:

·         Chhal

·         Dharamjaigarh

·         Jamanga

·         Tilga-Bhagora pockets

These rural downpours have provided vital soil moisture configuration for local farmers currently preparing their fields for the kharif sowing cycle.

Frequent Power Outages Leave Residents Frustrated

While the rain brought cooler air, it exposed severe vulnerabilities in the city’s electricity distribution infrastructure. Multiple neighborhoods falling under Zone-2 experienced prolonged blackouts starting Monday afternoon.

Power Infrastructure Log:

├── Pre-Storm Status: Intermittent maintenance outages recorded

├── Peak Storm Phase : Immediate tripping as lightning/thunder commenced

└── Post-Storm Status: Supply failed to normalize hours after rain ceased

Disgruntled residents hit out at the electricity department, pointing out that despite frequent power cuts carried out under the label of "pre-monsoon maintenance" over the last few months, the grid collapsed at the very first instance of moderate lightning and wind. Senior technical officials stated that teams were deployed to rectify tripped feeders and repair lines broken by falling tree branches.

The Meteorological Department has forecasted a significant surge in rainfall activities across Chhattisgarh over the upcoming week. According to the latest update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday, the Southwest Monsoon is progressing steadily and is expected to cover the remaining pockets of the state within the next three to four days.

While light to moderate showers accompanied by gusty winds were recorded over several regions during the past 24 hours, the state continues to wrestle with an alarming cumulative rainfall deficit. Regions like Rajnandgaon and Mohla-Manpur are experiencing an acute dry spell, with downpours dropping by up to 95% below normal levels.

Micro-Climate Shifts Visualized: Heavy Rain at Fundhar, VIP Road Stays Dry

A peculiar micro-climatic phenomenon was witnessed in the state capital, Raipur, on Saturday evening. While the Fundhar Chowk intersection was lashed by a sudden, intense spell of rain, the adjoining VIP Road corridor—located just a short distance away—remained completely dry.

Top Rainfall Logs (Past 24 Hours):

├── Mungeli District : 50 mm (Highest in state)

├── Darbha Region    : 40 mm

└── Gunderdehi/Konta : 30 mm each

Other regions, including Raigarh, Akaltara, Premnagar, Pathalgaon, and Durg, recorded up to 20 mm of precipitation, while Jagdalpur, Balrampur, and Gariaband witnessed scattered showers of 10 mm.

Monsoon Footprint: 18 Districts Covered, Surge Heading North

Monsoon has officially established its footprint across nearly 80% of Chhattisgarh's geographical territory, logging entries into more than 18 districts.

Monsoon Coverage Status

┌──────────────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────────────┐

│ Districts Officially Covered         │ Impending Entry (Next 48 Hours)         │

├──────────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────┘

│ Raipur, Durg, Dhamtari, Gariaband,   │ Surguja, Surajpur, Balrampur, Koriya,  │

│ Mahasamund, Bilaspur, Kabirdham,     │ Jashpur, Korba, Bilaspur, Mungeli,     │

│ Rajnandgaon, Bastar, Sukma, Bijapur  │ Janjgir-Champa, Sakti, Raigarh         │

└──────────────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────────────┘

While the northern belt is currently receiving sporadic pre-monsoon showers, the IMD expects to declare the official advancement of the monsoon line over these pending interior districts within the next 48 hours.

Bastar Logs Best Performance Despite 54% Deficit

The Bastar division, traditionally the gateway for monsoon currents into the state, has recorded the highest volumetric rainfall so far. However, when measured against historical averages, the region remains deep in the red.

• Bastar District: Received 74.8 mm of rainfall against a historical baseline of 142.7 mm (48% deficit).
• Dantewada & Sukma: Both southern districts registered a steep 54% deficit, with Dantewada tracking 49.9 mm against its normal baseline of 107.7 mm.
• Kondagaon & Bijapur: Logged 51.9 mm and 28 mm of total rainfall respectively.

Central Plains and Western Belt Face Alarmingly Dry Conditions

The agricultural heartland of Central Chhattisgarh is exhibiting severe moisture stress. Raipur district has clocked a massive 72% rainfall deficit, managed only 25.3 mm of precipitation against the normal expectation of 90.1 mm. Similar low-moisture trends are visible across the industrial belts of Durg and Balodabazar.

The most critical situation has emerged in the western border districts. Rajnandgaon has recorded a dismal 8.3 mm of rain against its seasonal normal of 100.3 mm—marking a staggering 92% deficit.

Neighboring Mohla-Manpur-Ambagarh Chowk is currently tracking the state's worst deficit at 95%, while newly formed administrative districts like Sakti and Sarangarh-Bilaigarh are facing an 83% drop in expected monsoon output.

Meteorologists expect these deficits to narrow down significantly once the active cyclonic circulations over the Bay of Bengal push heavier, sustained rain bands across the central plains early next week.

After making an entry into 15 southeastern districts on June 24, the southwest monsoon has remained almost stationary in Madhya Pradesh for the last three days, leaving several parts of the state still waiting for its arrival.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said conditions are becoming favourable for further advancement, and the monsoon is likely to reach Bhopal and Ujjain divisions in the next two to three days. It will cover Gwalior-Chambal region towards the end.

On Saturday, Ratlam and Dhar received heavy rainfall. Several other places also experienced thundershowers, bringing some relief from the prevailing heat. The weather department has issued rain alerts for 41 districts, including Bhopal, Raisen, Sehore, Rajgarh, Vidisha, Indore, Jhabua, Alirajpur, Dhar, Burhanpur, Barwani, Khandwa, Khargone, Ujjain, Ratlam, Agar-Malwa, Shajapur, Dewas, Narmadapuram, Betul, Harda, Jabalpur and others. Light to moderate rain is possible in Gwalior, Sheopur, Morena, Bhind, Datia, Shivpuri, Guna, Ashoknagar, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Niwari and Tikamgarh.

The fresh spell of rain has helped improve the state’s overall rainfall deficit. From June 1, the state has received 58.5 mm rainfall against the normal 99 mm — a deficit of 41 per cent. Earlier, the shortfall was around 50 per cent. Western MP has received relatively better rain compared to the eastern parts.

However, the monsoon progress has come at a cost. Lightning strikes claimed five lives in the last two days. In Balaghat’s Birwa gram panchayat, two children and one adult died after lightning struck, while six others were injured. In Dewas’ Khatamba village, a gallery collapsed during a Surya Puja event due to strong winds and rain, killing two women and injuring three others, including a child.

Day temperatures dropped noticeably in many places. Khargone recorded the lowest maximum at 30 degrees Celsius, followed by Khandwa at 30.1. Major cities saw Bhopal and Indore at 33.8, Ujjain 33.5, Jabalpur 36.7 and Gwalior 41.8 degrees Celsius.

Meteorologists said the monsoon is currently lingering in the southeastern parts and is expected to gain momentum soon. The delay has been attributed to prevailing atmospheric conditions, but no major concern has been flagged yet.

Farmers in rain-deficient districts are anxiously waiting for widespread showers to begin sowing activities. The coming week will be crucial for the state’s kharif season prospects.

As of now, the focus remains on the monsoon’s further movement and its distribution across the state. The IMD will continue to monitor the situation closely in the next few days.

Scattered rains accompanied by strong winds brought some relief from the scorching heat in parts of Madhya Pradesh on Tuesday, even as the state awaits the official arrival of the monsoon in the next couple of days.

Balaghat recorded the highest rainfall of 1.25 inches, followed by Raisen with 0.75 inches. Other districts that saw rainfall included Dhar, Barwani, Khargone, Narmadapuram, Indore, Chhindwara, Jabalpur, Sagar, Seoni, Tikamgarh, and Rajgarh. In many places, the showers were accompanied by thunderstorms, leading to a noticeable drop in daytime temperatures.

Pachmarhi remained the coolest place in the state with a maximum temperature of 30.2 degrees Celsius. Khargone recorded 30.4, Dhar 31, while several other places stayed below the 36-degree mark. However, heat continued to grip parts of the state, with Datia and Sidhi recording the highest temperature of 41.2 degrees Celsius.

Among major cities, Gwalior sizzled at 41 degrees, Jabalpur recorded 35.4, Indore 33.9, Ujjain 34.8, and Bhopal 32.2 degrees Celsius.

The weather department has forecast further pre-monsoon activity. Thunderstorms with rain are likely in 26 districts, including Gwalior, Sheopur, Morena, Bhind, Datia, Shahdol, Anuppur, Dindori, Balaghat, Seoni, Pandhurna, Chhindwara, Narsinghpur, Sagar, Vidisha, Raisen, Betul, Bhopal, Sehore, Harda, Dewas, Khandwa, Burhanpur, Indore, Alirajpur, and Jhabua. Meanwhile, heatwave conditions may persist in Jabalpur, Mandla, Damoh, and Umaria.

Officials said the monsoon is expected to enter the state within the next two days. Normally, it arrives around June 15, but this year the wait has been slightly longer. In the past decade, the earliest entry was on June 9 in 2021, while the latest was June 25 in 2018.

Rainfall deficiency remains a concern. According to data, 48 districts have received 52 per cent less rainfall than normal so far this season. Only a few districts, including Bhopal, Ashoknagar, Agar-Malwa, Guna, Mandsaur, Neemuch, and Sheopur, have recorded above-normal rains. On Monday, Dhar received nearly 2 inches, while Bhopal got 0.75 inches.

The showers on Tuesday brought much-needed respite in several areas, though some regions continue to face dry conditions. Farmers and residents in rain-deficient districts are hoping for a timely and widespread monsoon arrival to ease the pressure on water sources and agriculture.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is closely monitoring the progress of the monsoon trough. Meteorologists said conditions are becoming favourable for its advance into Madhya Pradesh shortly.

In the last 24 hours, the mix of rain and gusty winds also led to minor disruptions in some places, though no major damage has been reported so far. Authorities have advised people to remain cautious during thunderstorms.

As the state stands on the threshold of the monsoon season, officials are keeping a close watch on both rainfall distribution and temperature trends. Further updates on monsoon onset and expected rainfall in the coming days are awaited.

The current weather pattern reflects the typical transition phase seen in June, where pre-monsoon activities often bring temporary relief before the full-fledged rainy season sets in. How the monsoon performs this year will be critical for the state's kharif crops and overall water availability.

The southwest monsoon has slowed down just as it reached Chhattisgarh, with its pace temporarily on hold across the state. While the much-awaited full arrival is still pending, the India Meteorological Department has forecast thunderstorm, lightning, gusty winds and light to moderate rainfall in several parts of the state over the next five days.

In the past 24 hours, northern Chhattisgarh witnessed spells of thunder and lightning accompanied by strong winds. Light to moderate rain occurred in scattered areas. The maximum temperature touched 41.2 degrees Celsius in Durg, making it the hottest place in the state, while Ambikapur recorded the lowest minimum temperature at 22.9 degrees Celsius.

Meteorologists said the monsoon has currently stalled near the state’s border, leading to a temporary break in its progress. However, conditions remain favourable for renewed activity. Several districts may experience gusty winds blowing at 40 to 50 km per hour, raising the risk of dust storms and thunderstorms in the coming days.

Raipur, the state capital, is likely to stay under cloudy skies on Tuesday. The weather department has issued an alert for thunderstorm, rain or dusty winds in the city. Day temperature is expected to hover around 39 degrees Celsius while the night temperature may settle near 27 degrees Celsius.

The current weather pattern has brought some relief from the intense heat in certain pockets, though temperatures are still high in many places. Just four days ago in Korba, heavy showers turned streets into temporary streams, with children seen floating paper boats — images that captured the joy of the first good spell of rain.

Officials are closely monitoring the situation as the state prepares for the full onset of the monsoon. Farmers, especially those yet to complete sowing, are hoping for timely and widespread rainfall in the coming week. At the same time, authorities have asked people to remain cautious of lightning and strong winds, which can damage standing crops, weak structures and overhead power lines.

In the last few years, Chhattisgarh has seen erratic monsoon behaviour, sometimes leading to floods in low-lying areas and drought-like conditions in others. This year too, the delayed and paused progress of the monsoon has become a topic of discussion among locals and agricultural experts.

The Met department has advised that while no extremely heavy rainfall is predicted immediately, the possibility of thundershowers with squally winds cannot be ruled out. People living in vulnerable areas have been asked to stay alert, particularly during late afternoon and evening hours when such weather activity usually peaks.

As of now, no major disruption has been reported due to the current weather, but the next five days will be crucial for the state’s agriculture-dependent regions. Further updates on the monsoon’s movement are expected in the coming hours.

The weather department said it is keeping a constant watch on developing systems. Residents have been urged not to take shelter under trees during thunderstorms and to avoid open areas when lightning is reported.

For now, Chhattisgarh waits for the monsoon to pick up pace again after this temporary lull.

After nearly 48 hours without measurable rainfall, residents of Rewa woke to cloudy skies on Sunday but continued to feel heat and humidity, according to local observations and meteorological forecasts. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of only patchy relief, with isolated light showers possible over the next three days.

Dry stretch, humid air
Initial reports indicate the city has not recorded significant rain since midweek, leaving many to complain of oppressive humidity despite reduced sunshine. Temperatures have stayed high: the IMD logged maximums around 38–40°C and minimums between 25–27°C over the past week, with only marginal variation day to day.

Recent temperature trend
Daily readings from local observatories show a small oscillation in the last seven days. On 10 June the maximum was 39°C and minimum 25°C; 11 June peaked at 40°C (min 26°C); 12 and 13 June recorded maximums of 39°C with minimums around 26–27°C. The forecast now indicates a gradual easing: 14 June maximum 39°C and minimum 27°C; 15 June maximum 38°C and minimum 26°C; 16 June maximum 37°C and minimum 25°C.

Forecast details
According to IMD forecasting for eastern Madhya Pradesh, moisture is increasing over the region, boosting cloud activity and pre-monsoon convection. “Cloud cover will remain intermittent and isolated thunder‑showers are possible at a few places,” officials familiar with the bulletin said. The department cautioned that these are likely to be short-lived and will not immediately end the humid conditions.

Voices on the ground
Residents reported mixed impressions on Sunday morning. Rajesh Tiwari, who lives in a neighbouring police station area, said the sunlight felt milder compared with the previous two days but the humidity remained uncomfortable. “The heat is a bit less when clouds come, but the air still feels heavy,” he said. In Amhiya, Sunita Mishra said the cloud cover made the morning “pleasant” and that locals were hoping for more sustained showers.

Public impact
The continuing humidity combined with daytime temperatures near 38–39°C is keeping comfort levels low, particularly for outdoor workers and those without air-conditioned spaces. Medical and civic authorities routinely advise hydration and limiting outdoor exposure during peak afternoon hours. Local municipal sources also said they were monitoring water supply and distribution points ahead of any spike in demand.

Why rain is limited
Meteorologists attribute the lack of widespread rain to the current pattern of pre-monsoon systems, which have generated scattered cloud bands but not consolidated into a full monsoon advance. Eastern Madhya Pradesh is seeing increasing low-level moisture, but large-scale monsoon circulation has not yet become established across central India.

What to expect next
Over the next 72 hours, IMD forecasts suggest more cloud movement and a small downward shift in daytime highs. Local farmers and planners will watch closely for any sustained rainfall, which could ease heat stress in fields and reduce demand on urban water resources. Authorities said they will issue updates if systems intensify or if any localized spells of heavy rain are predicted.

Practical advice
Officials reiterated standard precautions for residents: drink plenty of water, avoid prolonged exposure during the hottest hours, and check local advisories before travel during cloudy or thunder-prone periods. Those in vulnerable health groups should seek cool, shaded environments and keep emergency contacts handy.

Looking ahead
While the next three days may bring brief respite in Rewa through cloud cover and scattered light showers, forecasters say a stronger and consistent change in weather will depend on the pace of monsoon advancement across central India. For now, the city remains in a holding pattern — some relief possible, but the humidity and heat have not eased fully.

Pre-Monsoon Showers Bring Mixed Relief

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a hail alert for six districts in Madhya Pradesh even as the southwest monsoon is likely to make its entry into the state three to four days later than usual. Officials expect the monsoon to reach southern districts around June 17-18, with full coverage of the state possible in the next 10-15 days if conditions remain favourable.

Hail Threat in Chambal and Bundelkhand

According to meteorologists, scattered hail may occur on Friday in Morena, Bhind, Datia, Niwari, Tikamgarh, and Chhatarpur districts. This comes after Thursday’s rain and thunderstorm activity across several parts of the state. In Morena, residents witnessed heavy showers accompanied by strong winds on Thursday, offering some temporary respite from the lingering heat.

Thunderstorms Likely Across Multiple Regions

Several districts, including Bhopal, Raisen, Sehore, Rajgarh, Vidisha, Gwalior, Jabalpur, and others, are expected to experience thunderstorms with winds gusting between 40 and 60 kmph. The activity is linked to an active trough line over eastern Madhya Pradesh and a cyclonic circulation system influencing the weather pattern.

Local authorities have advised people to stay alert, especially in vulnerable areas. Farmers in the affected districts have been asked to take precautionary measures to protect standing crops from possible hail and strong winds.

Heat Continues in Western Madhya Pradesh

While eastern and northern parts see pre-monsoon activity, western districts such as Indore, Ujjain, Ratlam, Jhabua, Alirajpur, Dhar, Barwani, and Khargone are likely to continue facing hot and dry conditions without any immediate thunderstorm alert.

Thursday’s Rainfall and Temperature Readings

On Thursday, Gwalior recorded about half an inch of rainfall. Light to moderate showers were also reported in Mandla, Seoni, Datia, and some other areas. Daytime temperatures, however, remained high in many places. Gwalior recorded the highest maximum among major cities at 42°C, followed by Jabalpur at 41.3°C. Khajuraho and Nougong were the hottest spots in the state at 43°C.

Monsoon Progress and Outlook

After a day’s break, the monsoon advanced into parts of Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh on June 11. Weather experts say favourable conditions could help it progress quickly towards Madhya Pradesh. A senior IMD scientist, Arun Sharma, noted that pre-monsoon activities would continue until the monsoon sets in properly.

Historical Context in Major Cities

Madhya Pradesh’s major cities have seen varied June weather patterns over the years. Bhopal has recorded rain during the Nautapa period multiple times in the last 14 years. In Gwalior, temperatures have crossed 47°C in the past, while Jabalpur often receives good rainfall once the monsoon arrives. Indore and Ujjain also have a history of occasional heavy June showers.

This year’s delayed monsoon has kept temperatures elevated in many districts, though the recent spell of rain and thunderstorms has provided some relief to residents. Farmers and urban dwellers alike are now watching the skies closely for further developments.

Public Reaction and Preparedness

Many in the affected areas welcomed the rain after days of intense heat, though concerns remain about damage to crops from hail. Local administration in vulnerable districts is on standby to respond to any weather-related emergencies.

As the state waits for the full arrival of the monsoon, officials have urged people to avoid open areas during thunderstorms and to follow weather updates closely. The coming days are expected to remain dynamic with alternating spells of rain and heat across different regions.

Rapid Onset Brings Mixed Relief Across India

The southwest monsoon has made an unusually swift push into multiple parts of the country, covering 13 states within five days of its onset in Kerala. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the system entered Telangana on Monday and continues to gain ground, bringing much-needed rain to several regions even as heatwave conditions persist in parts of the northwest.

Pre-Monsoon Activity Intensifies in Central India

Several districts in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh witnessed significant pre-monsoon activity on Monday. Bhopal received moderate rainfall accompanied by strong winds in the evening, providing temporary respite from the summer heat. In Uttar Pradesh, heavy showers lashed Gorakhpur and Jalaun, with reports of waterlogging in low-lying areas. Local residents in Bhopal stepped out with umbrellas as sudden downpours caught many by surprise late Monday.

Strong Winds and Dust Storms Hit Rajasthan

Parts of Rajasthan experienced fierce dust storms with wind speeds reaching between 60 and 120 kmph. Despite the gusty conditions, a heatwave alert remains active in the western districts. Sri Ganganagar recorded a scorching 45.6°C on Monday, while Phalodi, Jaisalmer, and Bikaner hovered around 44°C. The IMD has warned of continued heatwave conditions in the region for the next two to three days.

Red Alert for Heavy Rainfall in South

The monsoon’s progress has prompted a red alert for heavy rainfall across Kerala and in two districts of Karnataka. Officials have advised residents to stay alert for possible flooding and landslides in vulnerable areas. The system, which arrived in Kerala on June 4 — three days later than normal — has accelerated northward and eastward at a notable pace.

Monsoon Nears Mumbai, Eyes Further Advance

Along the west coast, the monsoon is now just about 150 km away from Mumbai and is expected to reach the financial capital within the next 48 hours. The normal arrival date for Mumbai is June 10. IMD officials indicated that the system is likely to advance into Karnataka, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and remaining parts of the Northeast in the coming two to three days. Further progression into Odisha, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, and Sikkim is also anticipated soon.

Northern Heat Persists Amid Fresh Outlook

Meanwhile, heat has intensified again in northern India. Delhi recorded a maximum temperature of 43.4°C on Monday, with Safdarjung at 42.2°C — about 2°C above normal. The IMD has issued heatwave alerts for eight states. However, a fresh western disturbance is expected to bring some relief from June 11 onwards, with rain and thunderstorms likely in Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.

Weather Outlook for Coming Days

For Tuesday, thunderstorms and rain are forecast across Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, and the northeastern states. Heavy rainfall may occur at isolated places in several northeastern states. Winds of 40-60 kmph could sweep across Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. On Wednesday, hailstorms are possible alongside rain in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu & Kashmir, while heavy rain is likely to continue over Kerala, Karnataka, and the Northeast.

The fast-moving monsoon this season has generated a mix of reactions on the ground. Farmers in rain-fed regions have welcomed the early showers, hoping for better sowing conditions, while urban centres are bracing for waterlogging and traffic disruptions. Authorities in high-risk areas have been asked to remain on high alert.

The IMD continues to monitor the situation closely. While the rapid advance is positive for overall seasonal rainfall prospects, the simultaneous occurrence of heavy rain in the south and extreme heat in the west highlights the variable nature of this year’s monsoon. Further updates are expected as the system progresses deeper into the country.

The United Nations has issued a strong alert over the likely return of El Niño, with an 80 per cent probability of the climate pattern developing before September. The development has raised fresh concerns in India about a potentially deficient southwest monsoon and drought-like conditions in several parts of the country.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is a 90 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will persist through November. Most models suggest the event could be at least moderate in strength, and some experts believe it may rank among the stronger episodes in recent decades.

Global temperatures set to rise further

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the forecast as “pouring fuel on the fire of a warming world.” He urged governments to prepare for intensified extreme weather events, including heatwaves, floods, and droughts.

The WMO has also forecast above-average temperatures across most regions in the coming months. The previous El Niño of 2023-24 was among the five strongest on record and contributed to record global heat in 2024.

How El Niño disrupts Indian monsoon

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm. This alters global atmospheric circulation, particularly the Walker Circulation, often weakening the flow of moisture towards the Indian subcontinent.

In India, El Niño years are historically linked to below-normal rainfall, delayed monsoon onset, and uneven distribution. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already projected that the country may receive only about 92 per cent of normal rainfall this season. While some parts of the Northeast, Northwest, and South may fare better, large swathes of central and western India could see deficits.

 Farming and rural economy at risk

With over half of India’s farmland still dependent on monsoon rains, even a modest shortfall can have serious consequences. Lower crop output, especially in rain-fed regions, could hit farmer incomes and weaken rural demand. Kharif sowing, which begins in June-July, remains particularly vulnerable.

Experts warn that prolonged dry spells during the second half of the monsoon (July-September) could worsen water shortages in reservoirs and rivers.

 Heatwaves likely to intensify

India is already seeing longer and more severe heatwaves due to climate change. El Niño conditions often amplify this trend. Central and northwestern states may face extended periods of extreme heat in the coming months.

A recent Lancet study highlighted the scale of the problem. Heat exposure in 2024 alone led to the loss of an estimated 247 billion potential labour hours in India, mostly in agriculture and construction, causing economic losses of around $194 billion. Informal workers, daily wagers, and those in outdoor occupations remain the worst affected.

 Food security and inflation concerns

Global food supplies are already under pressure. A strong El Niño could further disrupt production in key regions, pushing up prices. In India, any significant shortfall in domestic output of rice, pulses, or oilseeds may increase food inflation, affecting households and government subsidy programmes.

Officials are closely monitoring reservoir levels and groundwater situations. Some states have begun early planning for contingency measures, including cloud seeding in select areas and promotion of drought-resistant crop varieties.

 Background and past lessons

India has faced notable El Niño impacts in the past, including the severe drought years of 2002, 2009, and 2015-16. Each episode brought deficient rainfall and tested the country’s preparedness.

However, improved forecasting, better irrigation coverage in some states, and expanded crop insurance have helped reduce vulnerability over the years. This time, the challenge is compounded by the long-term effects of climate change.

 What lies ahead

The IMD is expected to release its updated monsoon forecast in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the government may accelerate preparations for water management and contingency planning at the state level.

As the world heads into another period of climatic uncertainty, the UN warning serves as a timely reminder of the increasing frequency and intensity of such events. For India, the focus remains on minimising the impact on its 1.4 billion people, particularly those dependent on agriculture and vulnerable to extreme heat.