Day 14. And the World Has Already Changed Forever.

There is a particular kind of silence that descends upon the world in the first hours after something irreversible has happened. Not the silence of peace. The silence of comprehension — the collective, stunned pause of 8 billion human beings processing the realisation that the world they woke up to this morning is not the world they went to sleep in last night.

That silence descended on February 28, 2026 — and it has not lifted since.

On the morning of February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military offensive against Iran. The opening salvo assassinated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several of his family members in Tehran — a strike seemingly based on the assumption that eliminating the head of state would precipitate the instant capitulation of the government.

That assumption was wrong. And the consequences of its being wrong are now playing out, in real time, across fourteen countries, three oceans, and every fuel pump, kitchen stove, stock exchange and military base on the planet.

Welcome to the Iran War of 2026. This is what it looks like — and this is what it means for a world that was not prepared for any of it.

The Fire That Consumed Tehran

Dense smoke has engulfed Tehran's skyline. Saturday's bombardment set ablaze four oil storage facilities and an oil production transfer centre in Tehran and neighbouring Alborz province. The Aghdasieh oil warehouse in northeast Tehran was among the targeted sites. Thick smoke from fires at oil facilities, mixed with rain clouds, has produced contaminated precipitation — what the World Health Organisation has warned is "black rain" carrying toxic pollutants posing severe health risks.

Black rain. Over a city of ten million people. Children standing at school gates in the morning, heads tilted skyward, watching the sky weep poison over their city. This is not a metaphor. This is the meteorological consequence of bombing oil infrastructure in a densely populated capital — and it is happening today, on Day 14, in the ancient and extraordinary city of Tehran.

On March 2, video footage showed the IRGC Malek-Ashtar building in Tehran completely destroyed. A further 20 civilians were killed in Tehran's Niloofar Square. The state broadcaster's headquarters was hit in a separate Israeli air operation. Several historic and cultural sites, including UNESCO World Heritage Sites, were damaged — a strike on Arg Square damaged nearby Golestan Palace, prompting UNESCO to issue a statement of concern. On March 5, the Azadi Sport Complex was bombed. The Red Crescent reported over 6,668 civilian units targeted.

Golestan Palace — a UNESCO World Heritage Site of extraordinary historical significance, a monument to Persian civilisation that predates the United States of America by centuries — was damaged by a missile that missed its intended target. The Azadi Sport Complex, where ordinary Iranians watched football and ran races and celebrated their children's victories, was bombed on Day 5.

In eastern Tehran, a resident named Sepehr keeps the front door of his apartment unlocked — a grim, calculated routine, allowing his family to sprint to an underground car park the moment the booming explosions return to shake their windows. Business Standard He has been doing this for fourteen days. His children have been doing this for fourteen days. Ten million Tehranis have been doing this for fourteen days. Most of them are not soldiers. Most of them are not politicians. Most of them are simply people who were born in a country whose government made enemies that now have aircraft carriers.

The Numbers That Cannot Be Allowed to Become Abstract

Tehran says US and Israeli forces have bombed nearly 10,000 civilian sites since the war began on February 28. More than 1,300 civilians have been killed — including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed on March 1.

Among the 1,300 dead are more than 160 people killed in a strike on a girls' school in the southern city of Minab on February 28 — the very first day of the war. A mass funeral was held on March 2 for the schoolgirls and their teachers.

One hundred and sixty schoolgirls. Killed on Day One. Before most of the world had even processed that a war had started.

The United Nations refugee agency reports that approximately 100,000 people fled Tehran in the first two days of the attacks. Social News XYZ Cities across Iran became ghost towns as civilians feared venturing outside. Prisoners in Evin Prison have been receiving limited bread and water since the onset of the war. National Herald India The wounded pile up. The dead are counted and recounted. And each morning, a new wave of strikes begins.

The Assumption That Failed — and Locked the World Into a War of Attrition

The architects of Operation Epic Fury made a calculation. Kill Khamenei. Decapitate the regime. Watch it collapse. Declare victory.

That calculation has not been borne out. Another Khamenei — Mojtaba, the Supreme Leader's second son — has been selected as the new supreme leader, with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and key leaders all pledging loyalty. The absence of an off-ramp has allowed the war to metastasise across the region.

Unlike the 2025 war, which ended after 12 days of targeted strikes through Omani mediation, the "decapitation" objective of 2026 has locked the US and Israel in a war of attrition with no clear end point. In 2026, Tehran has widened the map, launching strikes across nine countries. Missiles and drones have hit US military presence and civilian infrastructure in all Gulf states including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

The US military has confirmed eleven American fatalities from Iranian attacks across the region. US forces have struck more than 5,000 targets in Iran since February 28. Iran's IRGC says it has launched attacks on at least 27 bases in the Middle East where US troops are deployed.

The financial burden is staggering. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury cost the United States approximately $3.7 billion — mostly unbudgeted.

$3.7 billion. In the first hundred hours. While America's junior doctors protest their salaries, its bridges crumble, and its citizens debate the cost of healthcare. The war machine runs on a different budget from the one that governs ordinary American life — and it has been running at full throttle for fourteen days.

The World on Fire: From Cyprus to Qatar to Lebanon

The most chilling feature of the 2026 Iran War is not its intensity. It is its geographic spread — the relentless, daily expansion of the conflict map that has turned what began as a US-Israel operation into a regional catastrophe with global consequences.

Saudi Arabia's defence forces have intercepted waves of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles, including projectiles aimed at the kingdom's eastern region and Prince Sultan airbase. Qatar intercepted multiple missile attacks and issued an "elevated" threat level alert, telling residents to remain indoors. The UAE said air defences are responding to a new wave of Iranian missiles and drones.

Iran struck Cyprus — hitting the UK's RAF base on the island. Greece announced it would deploy frigates and F-16s to defend Cyprus from further Iranian strikes. Qatar's military intercepted Iranian missiles and reportedly struck back. The Lebanese government reported over 800,000 people displaced as Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon on March 3.

Spain's government blocked two jointly operated bases on its territory from being used in the strikes against Iran — prompting Trump to renew his criticism of Madrid. Dubai's Emirates airline suspended flights. Abu Dhabi's Etihad grounded all commercial operations. Air travel across the Middle East collapsed.

Dubai Marina — that gleaming monument to Gulf prosperity and globalisation — was photographed on March 3, 2026, eerily quiet under threat of Iranian drone attack. The UAE stock exchange closed for two consecutive days. The most connected, most commercially dynamic region on Earth had, in the space of a fortnight, become a war zone.

The Energy Weapon: How the Hormuz Closure Is Strangling the World

The Iranian military has restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — driving Brent crude oil prices past $100 a barrel, with wild swings ongoing, prompting fears of a global energy crisis. The narrow Hormuz waterway funnels 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels of India's daily crude imports alone, largely sourced from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

Every kitchen in India where a gas cylinder has run dry, every Indore restaurant owner cooking poha on an induction stove, every Chhattisgarh hotel that cannot source commercial LPG, every Bhopal wedding caterer desperately sourcing firewood for the tandoor — they are all paying the price, in their daily lives, for a military decision made in Washington and Tel Aviv on a winter morning 4,000 kilometres away.

Brent crude rose 4.93% to $85.41 per barrel within days of the war beginning. The surge has since continued, with analysts warning of $120 to $140 scenarios if the Hormuz closure is sustained for more than 30 days. Zee News At those prices, every government in the world that subsidises fuel — including India — faces a fiscal reckoning that will rewrite their budgets, their social programmes and their citizens' daily economic reality.

The Wider World: Fracturing, Choosing Sides, Holding Its Breath

The UK government confirmed that US forces are using British military bases at Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford for strikes on Iran. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he did not believe in "regime change from the skies" — but simultaneously authorised his country's bases to be used for precisely that purpose, in a formulation of such exquisite political doublethink that even veteran observers of British foreign policy found themselves momentarily speechless.

Israel's army chief of staff said Israel has destroyed 80% of Iran's air defences and at least 60% of its missile launch capability. Israel's Defence Minister declared that every leader appointed by the Iranian regime would be "an unequivocal target for elimination."

Russia and China have condemned the strikes in the strongest possible diplomatic language — and the war has sharpened the already acute divisions of a world that was fracturing along US-China-Russia fault lines long before February 28. The UN Security Council is paralysed, as it always is when a permanent member is a belligerent. The UN Human Rights Chief warned that Lebanon is becoming a "key flashpoint." UNESCO mourned the damage to Golestan Palace. The WHO issued warnings about toxic black rain.

And in the United States itself — the country whose president launched this war — political pressure is mounting, with lawmakers demanding public hearings on the war's goals and questioning the administration's strategy as US casualties rise and civilian strikes come under investigation. Twitter A War Powers vote failed in the Senate, allowing Trump to continue strikes — but the margins of that vote, and the fury of the dissenting voices, signal that the domestic consensus for this war is far from universal.

What Comes Next — The Four Scenarios Nobody Wants to Contemplate

The Iran War of 2026 now sits at a crossroads of four possible trajectories — and none of them is comfortable.

The first is a negotiated ceasefire, facilitated as in 2025 by Oman or another neutral mediator, with the new Khamenei leadership accepting terms that halt the strikes in exchange for commitments on the nuclear programme. This is the scenario the world is praying for. Its probability diminishes with each day that the war continues.

The second is a prolonged war of attrition — Iran unable to defeat US-Israeli air superiority, but equally unable to capitulate while a new Supreme Leader consolidates power by demonstrating resistance. Weeks become months. The Hormuz Strait remains partially closed. Oil prices sustain above $100. The global economy enters recession.

The third is an escalation to ground forces — US troops deployed to support Iranian opposition militias, or Israeli forces pushing beyond Lebanon into Syrian territory with Iranian backing. This is the scenario that transforms a regional war into something that requires the vocabulary of 1939 to describe accurately.

The fourth — the one that appears in whispered conversations between diplomats and defence analysts at 3 AM — is the one nobody publishes. The miscalculation. The strike that goes too far. The retaliation that crosses a threshold. The moment when a war between a state and its enemies becomes something the world has no living memory of surviving.

Conclusion: History Is Being Written in Fire Over Tehran Tonight

As thick, toxic smoke from burning oil facilities blankets the city of 10 million, a Tehran resident named Sepehr says simply: "The war might last weeks, so my family and I will only leave if it gets too bad. For now, life goes on."

Life goes on. In an apartment with an unlocked door in a city of burning oil and black rain, a father tells himself that life goes on. Because what else is there to say? What else is there to do, when the bombs are beyond your control, when the politics that produced them were never in your hands, when the only agency you retain is the decision of whether to run or to stay?

The people of Tehran did not choose this war. The schoolgirls of Minab who died on Day One did not choose this war. The residents of Ghatkopar struggling to find LPG for their stoves, the hotel owners of Indore cooking on coal, the wedding caterers of Bhopal — none of them chose this war. And yet all of them are living its consequences, every single day, in ways that range from inconvenient to catastrophic.

This is what war looks like in 2026. Not a discrete, bounded conflict between two armies in a field. A metastasising, boundary-dissolving, consequence-exporting catastrophe that starts with a missile over Tehran and ends — nobody yet knows where it ends — somewhere in the altered geography of a world that will not look, when the smoke clears, like the world that existed on February 27.

The smoke is still rising. The black rain is still falling. The Strait of Hormuz is still contested. And somewhere in an unlocked apartment in eastern Tehran, a father is listening for the sound of explosions — and deciding, one more time, whether today is the day he runs.

The world is watching. The world is implicated. The world does not yet know what it has witnessed the beginning of.

Ten days into the most consequential military confrontation in the Persian Gulf since the Iran-Iraq War, the balance of naval power in the region has been fundamentally and perhaps permanently altered. The United States has sunk or struck more than 20 Iranian warships. Iran's naval headquarters has been "largely destroyed," in President Trump's own words. The Iranian navy — the force that had threatened for years to close the Strait of Hormuz and hold the world's oil supply hostage — has, according to CENTCOM, been functionally eliminated from the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman.

And yet the war is escalating, not ending. Iran's retaliation — more than 500 ballistic missiles and 1,000 drones in the first 48 hours, striking Gulf states that were not even belligerents — has exceeded US expectations. Kharg Island, the tiny terminal in the northern Persian Gulf through which 90% of Iran's crude oil exports flow, has been struck. Qatar's Ras Laffan — the world's largest LNG export facility — has been hit and halted. Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, one of the biggest in the Middle East, shut down temporarily after an Iranian drone strike. The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil flows daily, has come to a near standstill.

This is no longer a war being fought over Iran's nuclear programme, or Israel's security, or Trump's definition of American interests alone. It is a war being fought over the energy architecture of the 21st century — and every country that fills its tank, pays its electricity bill, or cooks its food with LPG is, whether it realises it or not, a stakeholder in its outcome.

The Naval War: From 9 Ships to "No Navy at All"

The naval dimension of Operation Epic Fury moved faster than almost any analyst predicted. When the US-Israeli strikes began on Saturday February 28, 2026, Iran's navy was a credible — if asymmetric — regional force. The Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) and the IRGC Naval Forces together operated a fleet of frigates, corvettes, submarines, and hundreds of fast-attack craft specifically designed to swarm and overwhelm adversaries in the confined waters of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

By Sunday March 1, Trump was posting on Truth Social: "I have just been informed that we have destroyed and sunk 9 Iranian Naval Ships, some of them relatively large and important. We are going after the rest. They will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea, also! In a different attack, we largely destroyed their Naval Headquarters."

US Central Command officials said that an Iranian Jamaran-class corvette was struck by US forces at the start of Operation Epic Fury, noting "the ship is currently sinking to the bottom of the Gulf of Oman at a Chah Bahar pier." The Jamaran-class corvettes are among Iran's most capable surface combatants — domestically built, equipped with anti-ship missiles, and designed specifically for operations in and around Hormuz.

By March 5, CENTCOM confirmed it had struck or sunk over 20 Iranian ships, with the US military saying there were no Iranian warships remaining in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman. In a separate action that carried the conflict into the Indian Ocean, the US torpedoed an Iranian naval ship in international waters in the Indian Ocean, with Sri Lanka's navy rescuing 32 people after receiving a distress call from the Iranian vessel IRIS Dena.

Trump stated the US had knocked out Iran's navy, air force, and telecommunications, and that the operation "had to be done" because the country was "very close to a nuclear weapon." The Pentagon added that Israel and the US would soon have complete control of Iranian skies.

Tehran's response to the loss of its navy was characteristically defiant. Iran warned the US would "bitterly regret" the torpedo attack on the IRIS Dena, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News that Iran had not asked for a ceasefire.

Kharg Island: The Oil Terminal That Could Change Everything

Of all the targets struck in the first ten days of Operation Epic Fury, none carries greater strategic weight than Kharg Island.

Kharg Island is the largest and most important hub through which roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports flow into world markets. It sits at the epicenter of global energy security during a moment of military escalation. The island has numerous loading berths, jetties, remote mooring points and tens of millions of barrels of crude storage capacity — handling export volumes exceeding 2 million barrels a day in recent years, almost entirely destined for Chinese refiners.

Explosions were reported on Kharg Island on Saturday February 28, according to Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, though no further details were provided. Satellite imagery showed Iran continuing to load crude onto tankers at its Kharg Island terminal on Monday March 2, two days after the strikes — with one very-large crude carrier moored at a loading jetty — but no satellite coverage was available after that date, leaving the terminal's current status unclear.

The strategic calculus around Kharg is among the most consequential of the entire conflict. Approximately 90% of Iran's crude exports passed through this single point, with the majority destined for Chinese refiners. The near-total loss of that terminal would collapse Iran's oil export revenue stream almost entirely in the near term, creating a potential annual revenue shortfall exceeding $50 billion.

But the dilemma cuts both ways. Iran still has the option of destroying Kharg itself before US forces can seize it — a move that would send oil prices toward $120 per barrel and impose massive costs on the US, Gulf allies, and global markets, signaling a pain tolerance higher than Washington's. The question of whether Iran will sacrifice its primary revenue source to deny America strategic leverage is the most dangerous open variable in the conflict.

The Retaliation: Gulf Energy Infrastructure Under Fire

Iran's response to the destruction of its navy and the strikes on its leadership has been a broad, escalating campaign of drone and missile attacks across the Gulf — targeting not just US military installations but civilian and energy infrastructure across states that were not parties to the original conflict.

Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery — one of the world's largest oil refining complexes — was forced to halt operations after debris from intercepted Iranian drones caused a small fire. Qatar's Ministry of Defence reported that Iranian drones had targeted an energy facility in Ras Laffan belonging to QatarEnergy, the world's largest LNG producer. QatarEnergy shut down LNG production. Many downstream products including urea, polymers, methanol, aluminium, and others were also halted.

The halt in LNG production at Ras Laffan sent European gas prices surging to a three-year high, with Dutch front-month futures trading 45% higher.

A fire broke out at Mussafah Fuel Terminal in southwest Abu Dhabi after it was struck by a drone. Falling debris from a drone interception caused a fire at the Fujairah Oil Terminal along the eastern coast of the UAE. Multiple Iranian drones struck fuel tanks at the port of Duqm, Oman, with at least one direct hit on a fuel storage tank causing an explosion.

Iran's IRGC naval forces, even as their surface fleet was being systematically destroyed, continued threatening shipping. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. A security official warned that anyone attempting passage would be set on fire by IRGC heroes. Traffic through the strait slowed to a near-standstill, with 150 freight ships including many oil tankers stalled.

Since the US and Israel launched strikes, global crude oil benchmarks surged around 20%. Brent crude initially opened at $81.49 on March 2, pushing back close to $80 following news of the Ras Tanura strike. European gas prices surged 45%.

The Diplomatic Dimension: Pezeshkian's Apology, Larijani's Defiance

Iran's political response to the war has been internally contradictory — a sign of a regime whose chain of command has been severely disrupted by the killing of Khamenei and dozens of senior officials.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Iran's neighbours that he respected their sovereignty, saying "We tried, with your help and through diplomacy, to avoid war" but that the "American-Zionist military attack left us with no option other than defending ourselves." He insisted that Iran's strikes had targeted only US military bases and facilities, not neighbouring countries' civilian infrastructure.

But within hours of the apology, Pezeshkian said Iran was attacking "legitimate targets" in Gulf nations, insisting the strikes were "exclusively against targets and facilities that are the origin and source of aggressive actions against the Iranian nation."

Meanwhile, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, posted that Trump must "pay the price" for the strikes. Trump dismissed him entirely: "I have no idea what he's talking about, who he is. I couldn't care less," telling CBS News that Larijani had "already been defeated."

The contradictions between Pezeshkian's apology and the continued drone strikes on Gulf states reflect what Pezeshkian himself acknowledged in a March 7 statement: apologising for strikes on neighbouring countries and attributing them to "miscommunication in the ranks," underscoring the limited control exercised by Iranian civilian leaders over the IRGC.

The Global Energy Shock: What It Means for India

For India, the combination of a closed Hormuz, a struck Kharg Island, and halted Qatari LNG production represents a near-worst-case energy security scenario that planners have war-gamed but hoped never to face.

India, with fewer strategic crude reserves and with only around nine to ten days of stocks, is more exposed to prolonged disruption than China. Roughly 40% of India's crude oil imports transit the Strait of Hormuz. So does a significant portion of India's LNG imports. The 10 million Indians working in the Gulf, who send home $50 billion annually in remittances, are now navigating a war zone.

The US Treasury moved to partially address India's crude supply crunch: the Treasury Department issued a 30-day waiver to allow Indian refineries to purchase Russian oil, previously under US sanctions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described it as a "deliberately short-term measure" to enable oil to keep flowing into global markets.

This waiver — simultaneously an act of economic pragmatism and geopolitical leverage — effectively formalises what India had been doing informally: buying Russian crude at scale. But a 30-day waiver is not an energy security strategy. It is a breathing room measure for a conflict with no visible end date.

Trump ordered the US Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance for maritime trade through the Gulf, and said the US Navy would escort ships if necessary. Lloyd's of London said it was "engaging constructively" with the Trump administration on the question, but analysts at JPMorgan warned that the DFC likely does not have the capacity to insure the more than 300 oil tankers currently anchored near the strait.

The Broader War: Hezbollah, Lebanon, and the March 8 Escalation

The naval and energy dimensions of the conflict exist within a broader regional war that is simultaneously being fought in Tehran, southern Lebanon, and the skies above the Gulf.

Israel authorised a ground invasion of Lebanon on March 3. Israeli forces struck the Ramada hotel in Beirut's seafront Raouche area on March 8, targeting what it described as "key commanders" in the Quds Force.

The US and Israel struck Iran's Assembly of Experts as they were meeting to elect Khamenei's successor. Israel also killed Daoud Alizadeh, the commander of the Quds Force's Lebanon branch, in Tehran, and detained a dozen Hezbollah members in response to a missile strike.

Debris from an airstrike damaged Golestan Palace, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, prompting UNESCO to issue a statement that damaging its property violates international law.

More than 1,300 people in Iran have been killed as a result of the ongoing fighting, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society. The WHO identified 13 Iranian health infrastructure sites that had been struck.

Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence about targets, according to independent confirmation by NPR. China has sent an envoy to the Middle East urging both sides to return to negotiations, driven by concern over its own energy supply — one-third of China's crude oil comes from Persian Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz, and China buys 80% of Iran's crude oil exports.

Kharg Island's Future: Leverage, Destruction, or Stalemate?

The endgame of Operation Epic Fury remains genuinely unclear — which is itself a source of significant market anxiety. Trump has offered multiple, shifting rationales for the war: preventing Iran's nuclear weapons capability, protecting Israel, regime change by supporting the Iranian opposition, pre-empting an imminent Iranian attack. These goals require different levels of military action and imply different exit conditions.

The one strategic asset that could serve as both leverage and endgame is Kharg Island. Control it, and the US controls Iran's primary revenue stream. Destroy it (or allow Iran to destroy it), and the global oil market faces a supply shock of historic proportions.

The entire strategy of using Kharg as leverage rests on the assumption that the Iranians would rather accept American control over the terminal than destroy it themselves. Iran's leadership has just watched its Supreme Leader assassinated and dozens of senior officials killed. This is a regime that sees compromising core principles as more dangerous to its long-term survival than short-term devastation.

For now, the oil is still — just barely — moving. Satellites showed tankers at Kharg on March 2. The Strait has slowed but not fully stopped. The LNG from Ras Laffan has been suspended, but Qatar's reserves give it short-term flexibility. The world is operating on borrowed time in the Persian Gulf.

The war that began ten days ago with the killing of a supreme leader is now a conflict whose outcome will be measured not just in casualties and territorial control, but in whether the world's most important energy chokepoint remains open — and who gets to decide.

Key Takeaways

• Operation Epic Fury (US) and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel) began February 28, 2026; Khamenei killed on Day 1.
• The US has sunk or struck 20+ Iranian warships; no Iranian naval vessels remain in the Persian Gulf, Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman as of March 5; Iran's naval HQ "largely destroyed."
• The IRIS Dena was torpedoed in the Indian Ocean; 32 crew rescued by Sri Lanka.
• Kharg Island (handles 90% of Iran's crude exports) was struck on February 28; satellite imagery March 2 showed tankers still loading but no coverage since.
• Ras Laffan LNG (Qatar) halted production after drone strike; European gas prices surged ~45% to a three-year high.
• Ras Tanura (Saudi Aramco 550,000 bpd refinery) shut temporarily after Iranian drone debris; Fujairah, Duqm, Mussafah terminals also hit.
• Strait of Hormuz effectively closed: 150+ tankers stalled; crude up ~20%; insurance withdrawn.
• US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver allowing Indian refineries to buy Russian oil.
• Iran's retaliation hit US military bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, UAE; Iranian strikes also hit civilian hotels, airports, Amazon data centres.
• 1,300+ Iranians killed (Red Crescent); 6 US troops killed; Russia providing targeting intelligence to Iran; China urging ceasefire to protect its own energy supply.