The conflict escalated in mid-October when Pakistani forces claimed to have destroyed Taliban posts and tanks in the Kurram sector. This was a response to persistent attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban. The situation was further embarrassed for Pakistan when viral videos emerged showing Taliban fighters capturing Pakistani tanks, forcing the military to issue statements about reclaiming lost ground.
This hostility marks a complete U-turn in a decades-old relationship. For years, Pakistan’s ISI intelligence agency treated the Taliban as a strategic asset to create a "buffer zone" against India. They funded, trained, and sheltered the militants, seeing them as a pawn to control Afghanistan. However, the relationship shattered after the 9/11 attacks when Pakistan, under US pressure, abruptly switched sides overnight.
Analysts point to this betrayal as the core reason for the current strife. The Taliban now sees Pakistan not as an ideological ally, but as an untrustworthy partner controlled by American interests. This loss of trust is now burning Pakistan, with its own backyard "on fire."
US Demands Add Fuel to the Fire
Complicating matters further are recent statements from former US President Donald Trump, who publicly demanded the return of the strategic Bagram Air Base from the Taliban. This has sent shockwaves through the region, making the Taliban wary of a potential US return, which would likely be facilitated through Pakistan. This fear has pushed the Taliban to solidify its stance, with spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid declaring, "not an inch of Afghan soil will be given away."
India Quietly Makes Diplomatic Gains
As Pakistan bleeds on its western border, India is strategically strengthening its foothold in Kabul. In a significant diplomatic move, India recently hosted the Taliban’s acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, for high-level talks—the first such visit since the Taliban regained power in 2021.
India has upgraded its mission in Kabul to a full embassy, reopened visa services, and increased humanitarian aid. This careful diplomacy, based on engaging with a stabilized government rather than supporting terrorism, is paying off. For Afghanistan, India offers a reliable partner, and for New Delhi, it is a chance to bypass Pakistan and secure its interests in Central Asia through the Chabahar port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
History has proven Afghanistan to be the "graveyard of empires," where superpowers like the Soviets and Americans failed to exert control. For a financially strained and internally fractured Pakistan, the idea of dominating its western neighbor seems like a strategic impossibility. The pawn in the great game has now turned against its master, leaving Pakistan isolated and facing a fiery frontier.
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