India Scoop Exit Poll Gives TMC Edge With 150–172 Seats, BJP Close Behind
Digital Desk
India Scoop's comprehensive exit poll for the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 projects the Trinamool Congress on course for a third consecutive majority, estimating 150–172 seats — but the data tells a more complex story beneath that headline figure.
With West Bengal's 294-seat assembly requiring 148 seats for a majority, TMC clears the threshold even at the lower end of India Scoop's projection. However, the Bharatiya Janata Party's predicted tally of 110–130 seats marks a substantial consolidation of opposition strength in a state that was once considered an impregnable TMC fortress.
Seat Projections at a Glance
| Party | Projected Seats | 2021 Seats | Change |
| TMC | 150 – 172 | 213 | -41 to -63 |
| BJP | 110 – 130 | 77 | +33 to +53 |
| INC | 3 – 5 | 0 | +3 to +5 |
| Others | 5 – 10 | 4 | +1 to +6 |
Total assembly seats: 294. Majority mark: 148. Source: India Scoop internal data survey, 30th April 2026.
BJP's Surge: The Real Story in the Numbers
The BJP's projected range of 110–130 seats deserves particular analytical attention. In the 2021 Assembly Elections, the party had secured 77 seats — meaning India Scoop's exit poll, if accurate, would represent a gain of 33 to 53 seats for the saffron party. That is not a marginal shift. It reflects a deepening of BJP's organisational penetration in districts that previously returned TMC candidates with comfortable margins.
At the upper end of BJP's projection (130 seats), the gap between the two leading parties narrows to just 22 seats — the tightest competitive margin Bengal has seen in over a decade of TMC governance.
Congress and the Smaller Parties
The Indian National Congress is projected to win a mere 3–5 seats, a figure that underscores its near-complete erosion as a political force in the state. Once a dominant player in Bengal's political landscape, the Congress has struggled to articulate a distinct identity in a contest that has increasingly become a bilateral TMC-BJP affair. Other parties and independents are forecast to collectively hold 5–10 seats, retaining a thin but present role in Bengal's legislative arithmetic.
What the Projection Means for Governance
A TMC majority in the range of 150–172 seats would give Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee a workable mandate for a third consecutive term. However, with BJP projected to hold over a third of the assembly, the opposition bloc will be large enough to mount credible legislative challenges and sustain scrutiny on key policy decisions.
India Scoop's exit poll is based on internal survey data collected across an extensive set of data points statewide. As with all exit polls, projections carry an inherent margin of variance — the actual results may differ, particularly in closely contested constituencies. Official counting will determine the final verdict.
