NDA gains edge in Bihar Phase-1, RJD loses ground

Digital Desk

Voting for 121 constituencies in the first phase of the Bihar Assembly elections will take place on November 6. Of these, 63 seats fall across the Tirhut, Shahabad, Seemanchal, and Ang regions — including Raghopur, the seat of Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav.

Prominent candidates in this phase include Tej Pratap Yadav from Mahua, Osama Shahab (son of Shahabuddin) from Raghunathpur, Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary from Tarapur, and JDU leader Mangal Pandey from Siwan.

Survey trends show NDA gaining ground

Ground reports and inputs from political experts indicate a clear shift in voter sentiment compared to 2020.

Mahagathbandhan appears to be losing 17–18 seats across the four key regions. Out of the 63 seats, the RJD could lose 6, Congress 5, and CPI-ML 2, reducing the alliance’s tally from 39 seats in 2020 to around 22–23.
The NDA is expected to gain 14–15 seats, with JDU showing a strong rebound. JDU may gain around 10 seats, BJP about 5, raising the NDA total to 38–39 seats compared to 24 last time.

Phase-1 trends across 121 seats

Across all 121 constituencies, the Mahagathbandhan could face a loss of 19–21 seats, led by RJD’s decline of 9–10 seats. Congress may lose 6, while smaller allies like VIP and Left parties could also see setbacks.
The NDA, meanwhile, is projected to gain 17–19 seats. Within the alliance, JDU leads on about 12 seats, BJP on 9–10, while LJP retains one seat.

Expert insights on key trends

1. Women’s support drives JDU’s comeback

Analysts attribute the NDA’s lead to Nitish Kumar’s Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) schemes, which have provided ₹10,000 to over 1.21 crore women, strengthening the NDA’s position among female voters.
Observers note that Nitish retains strong credibility among women, while the BJP’s organizational network complements his appeal.

The DBT program has reportedly influenced nearly half of Bihar’s total voter base, as benefits extend to around 3.6 crore people through family members.

2. DBT and welfare schemes shaping voter behavior

Observers believe that direct cash transfers and free electricity programs are shaping the ground mood in favor of the NDA. Many voters reportedly fear that a change in government could end these benefits.
Some analysts, however, have cautioned that such schemes blur the line between welfare and electoral inducement, describing them as a concerning trend for democratic accountability.

3. Chirag Paswan’s limited impact; Sahani’s base split

Political experts suggest that Chirag Paswan’s return has consolidated Paswan votes within the NDA fold, while Mukesh Sahani’s move to the Mahagathbandhan hasn’t yielded similar results.
His Nishad vote base remains divided, with a larger portion still favoring the NDA, especially in Mithilanchal and Tirhut regions.

4. Congress continues to be Mahagathbandhan’s weak link

The Congress is again emerging as the weakest part of the opposition alliance. Analysts predict it may fall below 10 seats, citing poor ticket distribution, absence of a clear leadership face, and internal conflicts.
In several constituencies, Congress candidates are facing “friendly fights” with RJD nominees, further splitting the opposition vote.

Seat-wise highlights

1. Tejashwi Yadav strong in Raghopur
Tejashwi Yadav holds a clear lead in Raghopur, aided by a solid Yadav vote bank (35%) and strong local work such as hospital renovations and road upgrades. RJD’s dominance here remains intact since 1998.

2. Tej Pratap Yadav ahead in Mahua
Contesting from his new party, Janshakti Janata Dal, Tej Pratap Yadav is leading by a wide margin. Mahua remains loyal to the Lalu family, with RJD’s local base largely intact despite a multi-cornered fight.

3. Samrat Choudhary leading in Tarapur
Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary enjoys a strong position in Tarapur, bolstered by a large Kushwaha population and consolidation of NDA votes after local leaders extended support.

4. Osama Shahab faces tight race in Raghunathpur
Osama Shahab, son of the late Mohammad Shahabuddin, faces a close contest with JDU’s Jishu Singh. While his family’s legacy and MY (Muslim-Yadav) support help, changing demographics make the race unpredictable.

5. Former IPS Anand Mishra ahead in Buxar
Ex-IPS officer Anand Mishra appears to lead against Congress’s Sanjay Kumar Tiwari (Munna Tiwari). His clean image and youth appeal, combined with upper-caste support, give the BJP an edge in this key seat.

Overall, early trends from Phase-1 indicate a resurgent NDA, with JDU making significant recovery and RJD slipping in several strongholds. The Mahagathbandhan’s internal challenges and Congress’s weak performance could further tilt the balance in the NDA’s favor as the Bihar polls progress.