India and Canada have completed the third round of negotiations for the proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), signalling renewed momentum in efforts to conclude a long-pending trade pact by the end of 2026. The five-day discussions, held in Ottawa from July 6 to July 10, focused on expanding bilateral economic cooperation and advancing an ambitious target of doubling two-way trade to $50 billion by 2030.

The latest round marks a significant step in rebuilding economic ties after two previous attempts to negotiate the agreement failed over the past decade, with the most recent collapse triggered by diplomatic tensions in 2023.

Third Attempt at a Trade Pact

India and Canada first launched CEPA negotiations in 2010, but years of discussions failed to produce an agreement. Talks were revived in 2022 before stalling again following a deterioration in diplomatic relations linked to allegations surrounding the killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada.

Relations began improving after Mark Carney assumed office as Canada's Prime Minister in 2025. The renewed political engagement culminated in both governments formally restarting CEPA negotiations in March 2026 after finalising the Terms of Reference for the proposed agreement.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and Canada's International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu exchanged the negotiation framework in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Prime Minister Mark Carney, setting the roadmap for future discussions.

Wide Range of Issues on the Table

Officials said the latest negotiations covered several core chapters of the proposed agreement, including trade in goods and services, intellectual property rights, rules of origin, sanitary and phytosanitary standards, and technical barriers to trade.

Both sides reiterated their commitment to concluding a balanced and mutually beneficial agreement that would deepen market access and strengthen long-term commercial cooperation.

Trade Target Remains Ambitious

India and Canada have set a goal of raising bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, more than doubling the current level.

Overall bilateral trade, including goods and services, stood at approximately $23.66 billion in 2024. However, merchandise trade remains relatively modest. During 2025-26, two-way goods trade declined by 8.22% to $7.95 billion from $8.66 billion in the previous financial year.

India's exports to Canada increased to $4.67 billion, while imports from Canada declined to $3.28 billion, reflecting an improvement in India's trade balance.

Analysts note that achieving the $50 billion target will require deeper market integration, diversified supply chains and expanded investment flows rather than tariff reductions alone.

Mutual Economic Opportunities

For India, Canada offers a high-income consumer market with strong demand for pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, electronics, chemicals, textiles, seafood and gems and jewellery. Indian IT and business services companies are also expected to benefit from improved market access under the proposed agreement.

Canada, meanwhile, is seeking greater opportunities in India's fast-growing economy, particularly in agriculture, energy, minerals, fertilisers, natural resources and investment.

The investment relationship is already substantial, with Canadian foreign direct investment in India exceeding $4 billion, while Canadian portfolio investments in Indian financial markets have crossed $75 billion.

The presence of more than 425,000 Indian students and a large Indian-origin community in Canada is also viewed as an important foundation for expanding economic ties.

Economics Meets Geopolitics

The renewed CEPA negotiations come as both countries seek to diversify their global trade partnerships. India has accelerated negotiations and concluded several trade agreements in recent years, while Canada is looking to reduce its dependence on the United States by strengthening commercial engagement with fast-growing markets.

Despite the positive momentum, negotiators still face complex discussions on agriculture, investment protection, intellectual property rights and regulatory standards.

Observers believe the success of the agreement will ultimately depend on whether both governments can sustain political goodwill and translate diplomatic progress into tangible commercial outcomes.

If concluded as planned, CEPA could become a cornerstone of a broader India-Canada economic partnership and significantly reshape bilateral trade over the coming decade.