The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a heavy rainfall alert for eight districts of Madhya Pradesh as two active monsoon systems, including the monsoon trough and a deep depression originating over the Bay of Bengal, continue to influence weather conditions across the state. Despite widespread rainfall in recent weeks, Madhya Pradesh remains 17 per cent below its seasonal average, with 48 districts still recording deficient rainfall.

According to the latest weather update, Satna, Katni, Umaria, Mandla, Dindori, Seoni, Raisen and Betul are expected to receive heavy rainfall over the next 24 hours. Meteorologists estimate that these districts could receive more than four inches of rain during this period.

Light showers were recorded in Bhopal on Tuesday morning, while intermittent rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast across several other districts, including Sehore, Rajgarh, Vidisha, Indore, Dhar, Khargone, Ujjain, Ratlam, Gwalior, Morena, Jabalpur, Rewa, Shahdol, Sagar and Chhindwara.

Rainfall Deficit Persists

Despite recent spells of rain, the overall monsoon performance in Madhya Pradesh continues to lag behind normal levels. The IMD said the state has received an average of 336.7 mm (13.2 inches) of rainfall so far this season against the normal 407 mm (16 inches), leaving a deficit of nearly 70 mm, or 17 per cent.

The eastern region of the state remains more affected, with rainfall 20 per cent below normal, while western Madhya Pradesh is experiencing a 15 per cent deficit.

Only eight districts—Bhopal, Bhind, Burhanpur, Dewas, Indore, Mandsaur, Rajgarh and Sehore—have received above-normal rainfall this season. Dewas has recorded the highest surplus at nearly 29 per cent.

Meanwhile, districts including Anuppur, Balaghat, Chhatarpur, Dindori, Jabalpur, Katni, Mandla, Narsinghpur, Panna, Rewa, Satna, Seoni, Umaria, Betul, Dhar, Gwalior, Morena, Narmadapuram, Raisen, Ratlam, Shivpuri, Ujjain and Vidisha continue to remain below their seasonal averages.

Fresh Weather System Active

Weather experts attribute the latest spell of rainfall to a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal that has approached the West Bengal–north Odisha coast. The system is expected to move westward through Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh before entering central India.

Meteorologist Shailendra Kumar Nayak said the interaction between this system and the active monsoon trough is likely to trigger widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall across Madhya Pradesh between July 28 and July 30.

Authorities have advised residents in vulnerable districts to remain alert, particularly in low-lying areas and regions prone to waterlogging or flash floods.

July Yet to Match Normal Trend

Weather officials noted that although rainfall increased during the early part of July after a weak June, the absence of widespread heavy rain over the past several days has once again pushed seasonal figures into deficit.

Historically, July contributes nearly 40 per cent of Madhya Pradesh’s annual monsoon rainfall. Cities such as Bhopal normally receive around 14 inches of rain during the month, while Jabalpur averages more than 17 inches.

Historical Rainfall Records

Bhopal recorded its highest July rainfall in 1986, when nearly 41 inches of rain fell during the month. The city's highest single-day rainfall remains 11 inches, recorded on July 22, 1973.

Indore registered its highest 24-hour rainfall of 11.5 inches on July 27, 1913, while Jabalpur holds the state's highest monthly rainfall record with nearly 45 inches in July 1930. Gwalior, comparatively drier than other major cities, has an average July rainfall of around nine inches.

With fresh monsoon activity expected over the next three days, officials hope the upcoming rainfall will significantly reduce the state's rainfall deficit while cautioning citizens to stay updated on weather advisories issued by local authorities.