Madhya Pradesh Braces for Hotter Spell as IMD Predicts Dry Week Ahead

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a prolonged dry spell and rising temperatures across Madhya Pradesh over the next two weeks, with several divisions likely to experience above-normal to appreciably above-normal daytime temperatures. The latest extended range outlook suggests that heat conditions may intensify gradually, particularly in northern parts of the state, even as rainfall activity remains largely absent.

The weekly weather report issued by the IMD’s Meteorological Centre in Bhopal on May 14 noted that both East and West Madhya Pradesh are expected to remain dry from May 14 to May 24.

Heatwave Conditions Build

According to the forecast, maximum temperatures during the week of May 15–21 are likely to stay above normal across the state. In the following week, from May 22–28, temperatures in North Madhya Pradesh could turn “appreciably above normal”, while southern districts may continue to record above-normal heat levels.

Officials said the weather pattern is being influenced by multiple upper-air circulations and trough systems that remained active over central and northern India during the past week. However, most of these systems have now weakened, allowing dry and hotter conditions to strengthen over Madhya Pradesh.

Ratlam recorded the highest maximum temperature in the state at 46.5 degrees Celsius on May 12, indicating the early onset of severe summer conditions in parts of western MP.

Rainfall Activity Limited

While isolated rainfall was reported in some districts between May 7 and 13, the overall precipitation pattern remained uneven. East Madhya Pradesh saw scattered light showers in districts such as Anuppur, Mandla, Damoh and Chhindwara, while western districts like Gwalior, Shivpuri and Ashoknagar also recorded isolated rainfall events.

The state’s overall weekly rainfall stood at 1.4 mm against the normal average of 1.1 mm, a departure of 28 per cent above normal. Yet, the distribution remained highly uneven, with many districts continuing to face deficient or no rainfall conditions.

Several Districts Dry

The IMD report showed that 19 districts in Madhya Pradesh received no rain during the review period. Bhopal, Vidisha, Rajgarh, Betul and Rewa were among districts marked under “large deficient” rainfall categories.

In contrast, districts such as Ashoknagar, Anuppur, Damoh, Shivpuri and Chhatarpur recorded significantly above-normal weekly rainfall percentages, though actual rainfall volumes remained low in many places.

Meteorologists say such uneven pre-monsoon activity is common during May, especially when western disturbances weaken and heat-driven local systems dominate central India.

Temperature Trends Shift

The IMD’s division-wise temperature assessment showed a gradual warming trend across most regions during the second half of the week ending May 13. Divisions including Indore, Ujjain and Bhopal moved into above-normal temperature categories by May 12 and 13.

Northern divisions such as Gwalior and Chambal also witnessed fluctuating but rising daytime temperatures. Meanwhile, districts in eastern MP that had seen below-normal conditions earlier in the week began returning to near-normal heat levels.

Minimum temperatures too are likely to stay above normal through the next fortnight, the department said.

Urban Heat Concerns

With dry conditions expected to persist, concerns are growing over heat stress in urban centres including Bhopal, Indore, Gwalior and Jabalpur. Afternoon temperatures have already begun climbing steadily, while humidity levels remain low in many districts.

Local authorities have advised people to avoid prolonged outdoor exposure during peak afternoon hours. Health officials have also urged residents to stay hydrated as heat-related illnesses generally rise during late May.

Monsoon Still Distant

Despite scattered thunderstorm activity seen earlier this month, meteorologists do not expect any significant rain-bearing system to impact Madhya Pradesh immediately. The southwest monsoon is still weeks away from reaching central India, and current atmospheric conditions remain favourable for continued dry weather.

For now, the IMD’s Madhya Pradesh weather forecast points towards a hotter and largely rain-free second half of May, with temperatures likely to remain the dominant concern across much of the state.