Senior meteorologist Dr. Divya E. Surendran said two cyclonic circulations, combined with an active western disturbance, are driving the instability. These systems are expected to trigger scattered rainfall and thunderstorm activity across western, northern and central districts, including Dhar, Neemuch, Shivpuri, Morena, Datia and Chhatarpur.
Officials said the alert primarily covers Wednesday, while light rain and thunder activity may linger in parts of the Gwalior-Chambal division on Thursday. After that, conditions are likely to stabilize as the systems weaken.
The department warned that sudden wind gusts and lightning could pose localized risks, particularly for farmers and outdoor workers. Authorities have advised residents to remain alert to rapidly changing conditions, as brief but intense showers are possible in some pockets.
Cloud cover is also forecast for several districts outside the warning zone, including Bhopal, Barwani, Khargone, Sehore, Vidisha, Sagar and Satna, which may experience overcast skies without significant rainfall.
Meteorologists noted that this is the third notable weather shift in the state this February. Earlier spells of rain and hailstorms damaged crops in several districts, prompting field surveys by government teams. The incoming system is expected to bring additional precipitation beginning February 18, raising concerns among farmers still recovering from earlier losses.
Despite the rain alert, winter conditions have not fully receded. Night and early-morning temperatures are projected to remain low across most cities, though minimum readings are expected to stay above 10°C in major urban centers. At the same time, daytime temperatures have already crossed 30°C in more than 20 districts, reflecting sharp diurnal variation typical of the season.
Recent readings show colder pockets in interior regions, with temperatures below 9°C recorded in locations such as Shahdol and Pachmarhi. Major cities continue to see contrasting patterns—cool nights followed by warm afternoons—highlighting the transitional phase between winter and summer.
Weather officials said they will continue monitoring system movement and issue updates if conditions intensify or persist beyond the forecast window.
