The estimates, issued by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), place FY26 growth above the 6.5% recorded in FY25. Nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, is projected to rise by 8% in FY26, compared with ₹330.68 lakh crore in FY25, underscoring continued expansion in economic activity.
According to MoSPI, the manufacturing and construction sectors are expected to grow by around 7% in real terms, supported by sustained infrastructure spending, improved capacity utilisation, and rising domestic demand. The services sector is projected to remain the strongest contributor, with real gross value added (GVA) growth estimated at 7.3%.
Within services, the tertiary sector is forecast to expand by 9.9%, led by financial services, real estate, professional services, and public administration, defence and other services. The ministry noted that buoyant activity in these segments continues to underpin overall economic growth amid a stable macroeconomic environment.
In contrast, agriculture and allied activities are expected to post relatively modest growth in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. MoSPI said sectors such as agriculture, electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services are likely to see moderate expansion, reflecting structural challenges and weather-related uncertainties that continue to affect farm output.
The advance estimates are a key input for the preparation of the Union Budget, scheduled to be presented on February 1, 2026. Policymakers are expected to use the data to calibrate fiscal priorities, including capital expenditure, welfare spending, and sector-specific interventions aimed at sustaining growth while maintaining fiscal discipline.
Economists said the projections highlight India’s resilience amid a challenging global environment marked by geopolitical tensions and uneven global growth. However, they cautioned that sustaining momentum will depend on continued reforms, private investment revival, and measures to boost rural incomes.
With manufacturing and services expected to remain the main growth engines, the government’s focus is likely to remain on infrastructure development, digitalisation, and ease of doing business, while addressing vulnerabilities in agriculture and allied sectors to ensure more balanced and inclusive growth in FY26.
