This will be the first national election since former prime minister Sheikh Hasina left the country and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairperson Khaleda Zia passed away, ending a political era dominated by the two leaders from 1991 to 2024. The Election Commission has barred Hasina’s Awami League from contesting, citing its alleged role in the violence that erupted during student protests last year.
The election is being conducted under an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, which assumed office in August 2024. Authorities say the polls are aimed at restoring democratic legitimacy after months of unrest, while analysts note that the outcome will determine Bangladesh’s domestic direction and its foreign policy posture.
Observers say the stakes extend beyond Dhaka. India, Pakistan and China are closely monitoring the vote, viewing it as a potential turning point in regional geopolitics. Since Hasina’s exit, Bangladesh’s relations with India have cooled, while engagement with Pakistan has improved and strategic cooperation with China has expanded.
Ties with New Delhi have come under strain following Hasina’s relocation to India, reports of violence against minorities in Bangladesh, and heightened tensions along the shared border. At the same time, Dhaka has resumed trade and transport links with Islamabad, including the restart of cargo shipping and direct flights. Diplomatic coordination between the two countries has also increased at multilateral forums.
China, meanwhile, has reinforced its presence through infrastructure investment, defence cooperation and renewed talks on trade and technology. Beijing has maintained contact with multiple political actors in Bangladesh, signalling its intent to work with whichever government emerges.
Bangladesh’s strategic importance lies in its geography and economic potential. The country borders India’s northeastern states and sits along key maritime routes in the Bay of Bengal, making its political alignment critical for regional connectivity, security and trade. Analysts also point to concerns over political stability and the risk of extremism, which could have spillover effects across South and Southeast Asia.
If the BNP forms a strong government, experts predict a more balanced foreign policy, though India-Bangladesh ties could face renewed friction. A fragmented or coalition outcome could prolong uncertainty, while a significant role for Islamist parties would heighten security concerns for New Delhi and reshape regional equations.
Vote results are expected to signal whether Bangladesh leans toward India or deepens engagement with Pakistan and China, making the February 12 election one of the most consequential in the country’s recent history.
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