India's Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty Places Pakistan at Acute Risk of Water Crisis

The treaty suspension, announced on April 23, 2025, following a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam area, marks a dramatic shift in one of the world's most enduring water-sharing agreements .

The move gives India potential control over the westward flow of the Indus and its tributaries into Pakistan, a nation that lacks sufficient storage capacity to buffer such disruptions .

An Immediate Threat to Agriculture and Stability

The Ecological Threat Report 2025, released by the Institute for Economics and Peace, highlights Pakistan's extreme vulnerability. The report warns that "Pakistan lacks sufficient storage to buffer variations," noting that the country's dams can currently hold only about 30 days of Indus flow

This limitation leaves Pakistan highly exposed to any water flow disruptions. "If India were truly to cut off or significantly reduce Indus flows, Pakistan's densely populated plains would face severe water shortages, especially in winter and dry seasons," the report states .

The consequences would be immediate for Pakistan's agricultural sector. Approximately 80% of Pakistan's irrigated agriculturedepends on the Indus basin rivers, making the nation particularly sensitive to changes in water availability .

From Treaty to Tension

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 and mediated by the World Bank, has governed the shared river system for 65 years, surviving multiple wars and diplomatic crises between the two nations . The agreement allocates the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan, while the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) were allocated to India .

The suspension has already had tangible effects. In May 2025, India conducted "reservoir flushing" operations at the Salal and Baglihar dams on the Chenab River without notifying Pakistan—a process that had been restricted under the treaty due to risks of sudden downstream changes .

The impact was immediate: parts of the Chenab River in Pakistan's Punjab ran dry for several days when India shut the dam gates, later releasing sediment-filled torrents upon reopening them .

Broader Implications for Water Security

The crisis extends beyond immediate agricultural concerns. Pakistan's energy sector also faces significant threats, as hydroelectric plants like Tarbela and Mangla depend on uninterrupted river flows . Hydroelectricity contributes nearly 25% of Pakistan's installed electricity capacity, making water flow crucial for power generation .

The suspension also removes critical safeguards for Pakistan's water management. India has suspended the regular exchange of hydrological data—including flood warnings, river flow, and glacier melt information—that Pakistan relies on to prepare for floods and droughts .

Professor Neda Zawahri of Cleveland State University notes that this disruption challenges "a treaty that has been held up as a model for peacefully managing transboundary rivers" .

A Region at a Crossroads

The treaty suspension comes at a time when Pakistan already faces severe water challenges. According to the United Nations Development Programme and the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources, the country is approaching absolute water scarcity .

With climate change increasing variability in water flows and Pakistan's population expected to reach 403 million by 2050, the current crisis highlights deeper structural issues in water management that extend beyond the immediate political tensions .

As both nations navigate this new reality, the situation underscores the fragile balance between water resources, regional stability, and the growing pressures of climate change and population growth on shared river basins.