China's People's Liberation Army resumed large-scale military flight operations around Taiwan on Sunday, March 15, ending an unusual and unexplained 16-day pause that had generated intense speculation among defence analysts, Taiwanese officials, and international observers about Beijing's intentions. Taiwan's Defence Ministry confirmed in its daily update that 26 Chinese military aircraft had been detected around the island over the previous 24 hours — with 16 of them entering Taiwan's central and southwestern Air Defence Identification Zone — marking the highest single-day count since February 25, when 30 aircraft were spotted during what Beijing described as a joint combat readiness patrol.
Sixteen Days of Near-Silence — What Actually Happened
China normally conducts military aircraft operations around Taiwan on a near-daily basis, with fighter jets, drones, and surveillance aircraft probing Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone as a persistent show of pressure. Interruptions to this pattern are almost always explained by bad weather or major Chinese public holidays — and even those interruptions are typically brief, lasting one or two days at most.
This time was strikingly different. From February 27, Taiwan recorded no Chinese military aircraft at all until March 7, when just two planes were spotted far to the island's southwest. In the following days, only sporadic, small-scale incidents were recorded — three aircraft on one day, two on another. Over the entire two-week period from February 27 to March 13, Taiwan recorded a total of just seven Chinese military planes. In the same two-week window the previous year, the count had been 92.
The drop was so dramatic and sustained that it broke from years of near-daily sorties and immediately prompted questions about what Beijing was signalling — or preparing.
Three Theories — Trump, Purge, or Training Shift
Analysts and officials in Taipei have offered three overlapping explanations for the mysterious pause, none of which has been officially confirmed by Beijing, which has provided no public statement on the matter.
The first theory centres on diplomatic signalling ahead of US President Donald Trump's planned visit to China scheduled from March 31 to April 2. With Trump preparing to travel to Beijing for what are expected to be high-stakes economic negotiations, analysts suggest Beijing may have deliberately reduced military pressure around Taiwan to avoid complicating the diplomatic atmosphere. One analyst noted that Trump views China primarily as an economic negotiation rather than a security challenge — meaning Beijing may have calculated that pulling back flights would cost it little strategically while earning it goodwill in the run-up to the summit.
The second theory is that the pause reflects internal turbulence inside the PLA following President Xi Jinping's ongoing purge of senior Chinese military commanders. Several top generals have been removed or placed under investigation in recent months, and analysts believe the disruption to command structures may have temporarily affected operational tempo — particularly for complex, coordinated air force operations that require senior authorisation.
The third explanation, put forward by some defence researchers, is that China's military is transitioning to a new model for joint training between its air force, navy, and possibly ground forces — a structural shift in how large-scale exercises are planned and executed that temporarily reduced the frequency of visible operations near Taiwan.
Warships Never Left — Threat Never Went Away
Throughout the entire period when aircraft disappeared from Taiwan's radar screens, Taiwan's Defence Minister Wellington Koo consistently cautioned against reading the absence as a reduction in overall threat. Chinese naval vessels continued to operate around the island throughout the 16-day pause, maintaining a persistent maritime presence even as the skies temporarily cleared.
"We cannot rely solely on a single symptom like the absence of PLA aircraft to make a judgment," Koo told journalists during the quiet period, emphasising that Taiwan's military was continuing to closely monitor all dimensions of PLA activity. Taiwan's government rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims entirely.
Beijing Warns Taiwan's President as Flights Resume
The resumption of large-scale flights on Sunday came just one day after China's Taiwan Affairs Office issued a sharp warning directed at Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, who had given a speech on Saturday discussing the need to increase defence spending and protect Taiwan's democracy.
"People like Lai Ching-te should not miscalculate; if they dare to take reckless risks, they will dig their own grave," the office's spokesperson said in an official statement — a level of language that analysts described as a deliberate escalatory signal timed to coincide with the return of military flights.
Beijing did not respond to requests for comment on Sunday about the return of the large-scale aircraft activity or its motivations for the preceding pause.
.jpg)
