According to the report, intelligence inputs indicate that over 30 Pakistani terrorists remain active in the Jammu region this winter, raising concerns over potential escalation. While no major terror attack has occurred recently, CFR analysts cautioned that even a small incident could trigger confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
The think tank also highlighted the broader regional security scenario, noting that both India and Pakistan have accelerated arms acquisitions. India’s Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) approved defence procurements worth approximately ₹79,000 crore, including drones, air-to-air missiles, and guided bombs. Pakistan, in turn, has engaged in discussions with Turkey and China to acquire drones and air defence systems, reportedly to address vulnerabilities exposed during Operation Sindoor.
The report further warned of potential conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, particularly along the 2,600-km Durand Line, where October 2025 clashes between Pakistani forces and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan disrupted trade and strained bilateral relations. While CFR analysts assessed that such clashes would have limited impact on US interests, they emphasized the risk of further regional destabilization.
“The assessment is based on a survey of US foreign policy experts and aims to alert policymakers to potential global flashpoints,” the report stated. Conflicts are categorised into Tier-1, Tier-2, and Tier-3, based on likelihood and potential severity, with South Asia emerging as a region of heightened risk.
The CFR’s report situates the India-Pakistan scenario within a broader global context, flagging threats such as intensifying hostilities in Ukraine, escalating violence in Gaza and the West Bank, growing China-Taiwan tensions, and a potential Iran-Israel confrontation linked to Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Historically, India and Pakistan have fought five wars since independence, with Pakistan suffering setbacks in each, including the 1971 war, which led to Bangladesh’s creation and the surrender of approximately 91,000 Pakistani troops. Analysts suggest that the 2026 elections in Pakistan, cross-border militancy, and unresolved territorial disputes could influence the trajectory of bilateral relations.
The CFR, founded in 1921, is one of the most influential US think tanks on foreign policy and national security. Its assessments are closely monitored by the White House, Congress, and US policymakers for strategic planning and international engagement.
