RJD’s performance in Yadav-dominated constituencies, its core vote bank, suffered significant losses. In 2020, the party secured 55 Yadav MLAs; this year, only 28 made it to the assembly, a drop of 27 seats. Of the 66 Yadav candidates fielded by the Grand Alliance, merely 12 won — 11 from RJD and one non-RJD victor, Sandeep Saurabh from Male.
Analysts note that RJD’s aggressive campaign approach in many Yadav constituencies may have caused local backlash. Furthermore, the Extremely Backward Classes, historically part of RJD’s social base, appeared to distance themselves this election.
Muslim Representation at Historic Low
The number of Muslim MLAs fell to just 11, the lowest since 1947. RJD fielded 18 Muslim candidates, of whom only three won, while Congress gave tickets to 10 Muslims, winning only two. AIMIM contributed five of the elected Muslim MLAs. Key leaders like Shakeel Ahmed (Congress, Kadwa) and Mehboob Alam (Balrampur) lost their seats. Previously, Muslim representation ranged from a low of 16 in 2005 to a high of 34 in 1985, with Bihar’s Muslim population at 17.6%.
RJD’s ‘MY’ Fails, NDA’s Strategy Succeeds
The Grand Alliance’s MY (Muslim-Yadav) formula collapsed, yielding just 35 seats compared to 110 in 2020, with only five Muslims and 11 Yadavs elected under its banner. In contrast, the NDA’s MY (Mahila-Youth) strategy targeting women and young voters proved highly effective, boosting its tally from 125 to 202 MLAs. Active AIMIM campaigning in Muslim-majority areas further divided votes, compounding the Grand Alliance’s losses.
The results underscore a significant realignment in Bihar’s electoral landscape, signaling that traditional caste-based formulas may no longer guarantee victory, while issue-based and demographic-focused strategies are gaining ground.
