Bihar Verdict Today: Exit Polls Predict NDA Win, Nitish Kumar Likely to Remain CM

The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections have concluded, with all eyes now on the counting of votes scheduled for November 14. The electoral battle has been marked by two defining phenomena: a historic surge in voter participation and exit polls overwhelmingly forecasting a return of the Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government.

The Exit Poll Consensus: A Clear Mandate for NDA

Multiple exit polls released after the two-phase polling on November 6 and 11 suggest a decisive majority for the ruling NDA in the 243-member assembly.

Matrize projects the NDA to secure 147-167 seats.

Sources predicts a win of 145-160 seats for the NDA.

Today's Chanakya forecasts a strong 160 (±12) seats for the ruling coalition.

Axis My India, while predicting a closer fight, still gives the NDA a comfortable majority with 121-141 seats.

These projections place the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB), led by Tejashwi Yadav's RJD and the Congress, significantly behind the majority mark, with most polls allocating them between 70 and 118 seats. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party is projected to have a minimal impact, with most pollsters predicting it will win few, if any, seats.

The Leadership Question: Nitish Kumar's Edge

Despite the NDA's projected victory, some exit polls revealed a fascinating contrast in chief ministerial preference.

Axis My India found Tejashwi Yadav to be the preferred CM choice for 34% of respondents, with Nitish Kumar at 22%.

Peoples Pulse also showed Tejashwi leading Nitish in popularity, 32% to 30%.

However, political arithmetic within the alliance strongly favours Nitish Kumar. The exit polls indicate that the BJP, the largest party in the NDA, is unlikely to cross the halfway mark on its own.

With allies, it is projected to win around 87-94 seats, still short of the 122 needed for a majority. This makes Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and its estimated 59-68 seats indispensable for government formation, virtually assuring him a record fifth consecutive term as Chief Minister.

The Turnout Twist: A Note of Uncertainty

The one factor introducing uncertainty into an otherwise clear projection is the record-shattering voter turnout of 66.91%, a jump of nearly 10 percentage points from the 57.29% recorded in 2020.

Historical data from Bihar suggests that a surge in voting participation of over five percentage points has often led to a change in government. This happened in 1967, 1980, and 1990, with the incumbent being voted out each time.

The 2025 election, with its 9.62-point increase, fits this pattern, leading the opposition to claim it signals a public desire for change.

A key driver of this high turnout was the unprecedented participation of women, who voted at a rate of 71.6%, significantly outpacing the 62.8% turnout among men. This "women factor" is being seen as a potential swing element that could defy conventional predictions.

As the state awaits the final results, the political landscape is defined by a clash between the empirical data of the exit polls and the compelling narrative of a mobilised electorate seeking change.

The verdict on November 14 will reveal whether traditional alliance arithmetic or a silent, historic wave will shape Bihar's future.