NDA Crosses 200-Seat Mark in Bihar, BJP Emerges as Single Largest Party

The NDA's performance has sparked discussions about the possibility of the BJP forming a government without its longtime ally, the Janata Dal (United), though top coalition leaders have reaffirmed Nitish Kumar as the Chief Minister.

A New Political Equation Emerges

As of 3 PM on counting day, the NDA's tally has surged past the 200-seat mark in the 243-member assembly, far exceeding the majority requirement of 122 seats. The alliance is now poised to surpass its 2010 record of 206 seats.

Within the coalition, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has emerged as the single largest party, leading on 95 seats. This is a significant gain from the 74 seats it won in the 2020 elections. The BJP contested 101 seats, achieving a strike rate of over 92%.

Other NDA partners also contributed to the victory:

Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)): Leading on 84 seats.

LJP (Ram Vilas): Led by Chirag Paswan, leading on 22 seats out of the 29 it contested.

HAM(S) and RLM: Leading on 5 and 4 seats, respectively.

This distribution means that, mathematically, the BJP along with the LJP, HAM(S), and RLM could cross the majority mark without the JD(U)'s 84 seats. This has led to analyst speculation about a potential push for the BJP's first Chief Minister in the state. However, the BJP leadership has officially closed this discussion.

Key Winners and Losers

The Bihar verdict has delivered stunning victories and crushing setbacks for key political players.

The Winners:

Nitish Kumar: The JD(U) chief has cemented his position as Bihar's "Phoenix," fighting off anti-incumbency and leading his alliance to a massive victory. His women-centric welfare schemes and governance record were key factors.

PM Narendra Modi: The results have reaffirmed the Prime Minister's electoral appeal. The victory is seen as an endorsement of his leadership and central government's welfare schemes.

Chirag Paswan: With his party winning 22 seats, Chirag Paswan has dramatically improved his political standing and bargaining power within the NDA.

Women Voters: With a record turnout that surpassed male voter participation, women were the true kingmakers, backing the NDA in response to welfare schemes like the ₹10,000 direct financial assistance.

The Losers:

Tejashwi Yadav: The RJD leader and Mahagathbandhan's CM face has suffered a major setback. His party was leading on just 29 seats, one of its worst performances.

Rahul Gandhi & Congress: The Congress party was reduced to a single-digit tally, leading on just one seat, highlighting its continued decline in the state.

Prashant Kishor: The political strategist's debut as a politician with his Jan Suraaj Party failed to make an impact, failing to win a single seat.

INDIA Bloc: The opposition alliance appears to have been decisively rejected by voters, undone by weak coordination and a lack of a compelling narrative.

Leadership Affirms Nitish Kumar as CM

Despite the BJP's superior numbers, top NDA leaders have moved quickly to affirm the coalition's leadership.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a statement, congratulated "Chief Minister Nitish Kumar" and other allies for the "resounding victory".

BJP MP and actor Ravi Kishan also put all speculation to rest, stating, "Nitish Kumar will be the CM once again". This sentiment was echoed by other BJP and ally leaders throughout the day, emphasizing that the election was fought and won under Nitish Kumar's leadership.

What Drove the NDA's Landslide Victory?

Several factors contributed to the NDA's massive win:

1.  The "Phoenix" CM: Nitish Kumar's image as a proven administrator, particularly his focus on law and order and women's safety, helped him overcome the "frequent turncoat" tag.

2.  Welfare Wins Votes: Direct benefit transfer schemes, especially the ₹10,000 assistance to women, resonated deeply with the electorate, blunting anti-incumbency.

3.  Cohesion vs. Chaos: The NDA campaigned as a disciplined unit, while the opposition INDIA bloc appeared plagued by internal disputes and a lack of a unified strategy.

4.  Failed Opposition Campaigns: Key opposition issues, such as allegations of voter list manipulation through the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), failed to gain traction with voters.

The NDA's victory in Bihar underscores the enduring power of a combined strategy of welfare delivery, strategic caste coalitions, and strong leadership appeal. While the numbers present an interesting hypothetical, the alliance has chosen stability, with Nitish Kumar set to continue his record tenure as Chief Minister.