Government to Release November 2025 Retail Inflation Data Today; CPI Expected to Stay Below 4%
India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is set to publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation data for November 2025 at 4 pm on Friday, December 12. Analysts expect retail inflation to remain below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target for the tenth month in a row, signaling continued price stability and strong macroeconomic management.
According to early estimates, India’s retail inflation is likely to rise slightly in November compared to the record low seen in October 2025 but will continue to stay below the central bank’s comfort level. In October, CPI inflation had eased sharply to just 0.25%, marking one of the lowest levels in more than a decade.
During the previous month, the rural inflation rate registered a negative value of (-0.25%), while urban inflation stood at 0.88%. This slowdown in price rise across both segments was largely driven by falling prices of essential food items such as vegetables, pulses, and spices.
Food Inflation Eases Sharply
Government data shows that prices of vegetables fell by more than 27% in October compared to the same month last year. Pulses and spices also became cheaper by 16% and 3%, respectively. As a result, food and beverages inflation plunged to (-3.72%) during the month. The decline in food prices, along with stable energy costs and reduced Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates, contributed to the historic fall in overall inflation levels.
Economists predict a modest month-on-month uptick in November due to seasonal factors but agree that the broader inflation trend remains comfortably within the RBI’s target band.
RBI Calls It a ‘Goldilocks Period’
Earlier this month, while presenting the Monetary Policy Statement on December 5, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra described the current phase as a ‘rare goldilocks period’ for the Indian economy — where growth remains robust while inflation is steadily cooling down. He emphasized that India’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continues to expand at a healthy pace, strengthened by strong domestic demand and controlled inflation.
The RBI also revised down its inflation projections for the remaining quarters of FY26 and for the first half of FY27, suggesting that price pressures are likely to stay moderate in the near term.
Looking Ahead
As India awaits the November CPI release, analysts believe the consistent decline in inflation could allow more policy flexibility for the central bank. With both inflation and interest rate expectations stabilizing, economists expect India to continue benefiting from a strong growth-inflation balance over the coming quarters.
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